Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
James Of England ·
February 29, 2012 at 4:30am
Please come and join the conversation as the results pour in. As Michigan is a very open primary, Democrat members are particularly welcome. ;-)
Edit: it appears that most of the conversation will be about Michigan, where the overall result is still in doubt, and the Delegate count is even more in the air...
And as I type this, ABC calls Michigan for Romney. And now AP is.... and now FOX. The Delegate count is awarded (almost certainly) one at large delegate each to Santorum and Romney, with each Congressional District awarding 2 delegates to its winner. You can find the District map here, and the results by county here.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
A win in Michigan and Arizona ought to mean another 40-50 delegates.
Gingrich's 4th place is another nail in his coffin; it makes it even less likely he'll win a third state.
I'm not sure it's a lot of momentum, although I'm guessing it helps with volunteer morale. The race's clarification that it's a two horse race with Santorum probably helps funding for both candidates.
It's definitely not enough to close out the race. Santorum's big hope has to be winning New York on April 24th, and a wipe-out in Pennsylvania. Before then, it's delegate count and media play.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Just remember, for almost everyone reading this, in 2012, the guy who is 100, even 85% of what you want would not be able to win in November. Be careful what you wish for. The voters who need to be persuaded are not Mark Levin.
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
A better night for Santorum than Romney, I think. Romney, the inevitable nominee, has everything going for him here. Home court advantage, huge name recognition, tons more money. Heck, the state is even shaped like a Mitt. Yet he had to scramble and spend a lot of time and resources to pull out a come from behind win. A win for Santorum would have been great, but I'd still call this an excellent performance on a very tight budget.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
All eyes on Ohio...
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Freeven
A better night for Santorum than Romney, I think. Romney, the inevitable nominee, has everything going for him here. Home court advantage, huge name recognition, tons more money. Heck, the state is evenshapedlike a Mitt. Yet he had to scramble and spend a lot of time and resources to pull out a come from behind win. A win for Santorum would have been great, but I'd still call this an excellent performance on a very tight budget. · 1 minute ago
The latest figures I'm aware of suggest Romney + PAC spent $1.5m, Santorum $0.8m. Given that Romney's cash more than doubles Santorum's, if both get the same votes per dollar for the rest of the campaign, Santorum isn't going to come out well.
Romney had the home court advantage of having grown up there, but the Mid-West is Santorum's home, and his campaign has prioritized policies that work there.
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Keith Preston
All eyes on Ohio... · 6 minutes ago
Ohio is probably only interesting for the margin, although that is interesting. Alaska and North Dakota seem like the swing states. Antony Kaiser in comment 41 suggests that Idaho is, too, but I think that's a safe Romney race.
Edit: On Ohio, it's my sense that this is the other area (than Georgia) that Newt has a last gasp of relevance; he's putting a lot of advertizing and campaigning into the state and it's all going to be anti-Romney stuff. My guess is that that probably helps keep Mitt from making the huge gains he'd need to contest Ohio seriously.
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 5:32amFeb '12
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
If Santorum loses Ohio, it is officially over. I don't think that will happen, but I do bet the margin is less than 5 points. Usually Super Tuesday is the coronation. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case this time. It is kind of sad to me that we may just drag this out until May or June only to achieve the result that everyone has said seems most likely all along.
Jul '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Freeven
A better night for Santorum than Romney, I think. Romney, the inevitable nominee, has everything going for him here. Home court advantage, huge name recognition, tons more money. Heck, the state is evenshapedlike a Mitt. Yet he had to scramble and spend a lot of time and resources to pull out a come from behind win. A win for Santorum would have been great, but I'd still call this an excellent performance on a very tight budget. · 3 minutes ago
It was an excellent performance on a tight budget.
Will it improve his bottom line?
Will he grow fundraising relative to Mitt from tonight's results?
Will more folks sign up for his campaign, than for Mitt's?
If the answer is "no" to any of those three questions, then it was a bad night for Rick.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Sorry, with comments like this, you just [edited for Code of Conduct].
If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, expect major disengaging, and a very likely loss in November. That is reality, not vindictiveness.
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 4:13pmApr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
CD/ delegate update:
Congressional districts so far:
Romney: 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th. The 10th should be his, but it's not clear how the votes are distributed in Macomb, where he would need about a 1200 vote lead.
Santorum: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
In other words, a tied Michigan delegate count, with Romney getting 44 delegates for the night and Santorum 15.
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Chris Deleon
Sorry, with comments like this, you [edited for Code of Conduct].
If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, expect major disengaging, and a very likely loss in November. That is reality, not vindictiveness. · 2 minutes ago
Funny, I think Romney supporters will also predict a loss in November if Santorum is nominated....funny that.
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 4:13pmMay '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Fear not...Obama had to "fix" the results of the final delegate counts in 2008 in order to win...and we all know how he did.
In the end, it's going to be what most re-elections are about = a referendum on the incumbent. WE have been sick of Obama for over a year or more. The rest of the nation is just now getting sick of him, and he's been able to stay relatively quiet because he has no primary challenger. Once the campaign for the general starts, and his nose goes in the air while we pay $5 a gallon for gas, then...he's toast.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Yes, the Tea Party is arrogant for thinking that winning a number of Congressional Districts translates in any meaningful way to being able and/or entitled to chose the Republican Presidential nominee. Yes, the Internet has enabled a critical mass of people to maintain the delusion that their little niche-candidates, be it Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Newt or Santorum ever had a chance in hell of defeating sitting President Obama. And the delusion that "if we just put up a true, pure conservative-conservative, all those Democrats and independents who voted for Obama 'way back' in 2008 would flip" and vote for said candidate.
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 6:05amMay '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
I'm ready here in Ohio...
Aug '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Freeven
Romney, the inevitable nominee, has everything going for him here. Home court advantage, huge name recognition, tons more money. Heck, the state is even shaped like a Mitt.
Beautiful.
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Palaeologus
It was an excellent performance on a tight budget.
Will it improve his bottom line?
Will he grow fundraising relative to Mitt from tonight's results?
Will more folks sign up for his campaign, than for Mitt's?
If the answer is "no" to any of those three questions, then it was a bad night for Rick.
Perhaps. But this should have been one of Mitt's strongest states. And yet he was scrambling to the very end, with his attack machine in high gear, outspending Santorum 4-1 (per Fox), with Paul helping him, and Newt continuing to drain votes away from Santorum . Yet he only won by three points. There's no doubt that Mitt remains a strong favorite to win the nomination, but he also remains an incredibly weak candidate, as Santorum showed again tonight.
Jul '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Chris Deleon
If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, expect major disengaging, and a very likely loss in November. That is reality, not vindictiveness. · 18 minutes ago
C'mon.
You're gonna let Barry coast?
I'm not buying.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Best I can tell, Newt is relevant in OH only in so far as he's been running attack ads against Romney for over a month now -- first the Bain stuff; now the "establishment moderate" routine. That should all help Rick over the finish line, but I doubt it'll give Newt any traction of his own.
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Freeven
Perhaps. But this should have been one of Mitt's strongest states. And yet he was scrambling to the very end, with his attack machine in high gear, outspending Santorum 4-1 (per Fox), with Paul helping him, and Newt continuing to drain votes away from Santorum . Yet he only won by three points. There's no doubt that Mitt remains a strong favorite to win the nomination, but he also remains an incredibly weak candidate, as Santorum showed again tonight.
It matches up to some of Romney's strengths, but even more so to Santorum's. Midwestern, manufacturing, comfortable with class warfare and government intervention, well organized democrats willing to put in the effort, heavily socially conservative. Compare Arizona, a state Mitt lost in 2008, and where little money was spent; Santorum got a little over half Mitt's votes.
This is what I meant. Newt is no longer competitive.
Aug '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
I think you're just spoofing here, but it could come across as unkind... Especially to Tea-Partiers who support Romney.