Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
James Of England ·
February 29, 2012 at 4:30am
Please come and join the conversation as the results pour in. As Michigan is a very open primary, Democrat members are particularly welcome. ;-)
Edit: it appears that most of the conversation will be about Michigan, where the overall result is still in doubt, and the Delegate count is even more in the air...
And as I type this, ABC calls Michigan for Romney. And now AP is.... and now FOX. The Delegate count is awarded (almost certainly) one at large delegate each to Santorum and Romney, with each Congressional District awarding 2 delegates to its winner. You can find the District map here, and the results by county here.
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
It's true that this has been a crazy cycle, but I think that the math is starting to work in Romney's favor. They are holding caucuses in Wyoming right now and Romney is winning. He's going to clean up in Virginia and Mass. on Super Tuesday. I think he'll do OK in North Dakota, Idaho, and Vermont. Since the primary states next week will have a form of proportional delegate allocation, he can limit the damage from losses in Ohio, Georgia, and Oklahoma. The only thing that might change the dynamics is if Gingrich drops out.
Feb '12
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
That's about how Michigan looked a week before the primary.
I'm not saying Santorum will collapse there like he did in Michigan, Ohio neighbors his state and is more conservative than Michigan, but I don't see Santorum being able to keep this up. Romney continues to put distance between himself and his rivals with each election.
Oct '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
I can't believe it. For the first time, I feel excited Romney won a primary--or perhaps relieved is a better word. I honestly think Santorum would have crashed the entire Republican Party. Conservatives, moderates, establishment--everyone would have suffered. Imminent political death really does concentrate the mind wonderfully.
If only I thought Romney could win. Who knows; perhaps Obama will tank again in the summer.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Money...and if he needs to, Romney can lend himself plenty. Rick is now a vessel for (no Mitt/none of the above). It never works.
Barry's people underestimate Mitt at great risk. I'm not saying I'm a "fan" of MR, but I think he's the best choice in the field. I think more primary voters will start accepting it (like a Kubler-Ross moment) and get behind him.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
[Edited for Code of Conduct violations]
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 4:08pmMay '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
(and next month Peter Robinson)
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Joseph Eagar: I can't believe it. For the first time, I feel excited Romney won a primary--or perhaps relieved is a better word. I honestly think Santorum would have crashed the entire Republican Party. Conservatives, moderates, establishment--everyone would have suffered. Imminent political death really does concentrate the mind wonderfully.
If only I thought Romney could win. Who knows; perhaps Obama will tank again in the summer. · 4 minutes ago
If it lifts your spirits any, Obama is down to 43% in Gallup today. No President with an approval rating that low at this point in the reelection season has ever won reelection.
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
From the CoC list of violations: All caps. Online, it's yelling.
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 4:10pmMay '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Speaking of Peter, do we know how Prof. Rahe voted today?
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Well, I'm happy for all you Mitt fans.
If he does win the nomination, I will be behind him.
Apr '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
Mitt's speech is a pretty funny, relaxed sort of stand up, with occasional patches of serious stump speech thrown, but even those are kind of cheery. I've not seen him do this before, but he seems way more relieved than pumped up. It reminds me of the 2008 Nevada caucus more than anything else. Everyone's just so happy in a completely non-angry, non-competitive way.
This despite my calculations suggesting Santorum will win more delegates in Michigan than Mitt will, and the continuing likelihood of a big Washington win for Rick. After that, Rick will win Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Ohio on Super Tuesday, and maybe North Dakota and Alaska; Mitt could win as few as 4 states, and generally smaller states, albeit by a larger margin. They can't take their foot off the pedal.
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
James Of England:
This despite my calculations suggesting Santorum will win more delegates in Michigan than Mitt will, and the continuing likelihood of a big Washington win for Rick. After that, Rick will win Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Ohio on Super Tuesday, and maybe North Dakota and Alaska; Mitt could win as few as 4 states, and generally smaller states, albeit by a larger margin. They can't take their foot off the pedal. · 1 minute ago
It's still a race no matter how we feel about it. I prefer it this way. It will be nice to be counted on Saturday. Your analysis has been pretty good so far, so I foresee several more months of this primary.
Edited on February 29, 2012 at 5:01amDec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
katievs
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
What did you bait yours with tonight? (I prefer garlic.) · 6 minutes ago
Huge amount of garlic in the ratatouille I had for dinner. Too much really. Another little penance.
I hadn't even noticed the typo. It comforts me that Jonah has this problem with homonyms too.
Yes, Jonah's homonym usage is enough to make one whale.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
And to you, Katie: your man Santorum has GOT to be setting some sort of votes-per-dollar efficiency record this primary.
Mar '11
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
katievs: Well, I'm happy for all you Mitt fans.
If he does win the nomination, I will be behind him. · 2 minutes ago
I'm not happy for them. I'll vote for Romney if he's the guy, but I don't trust him one whit. And I still dont' think he can win, but eh, this is the system. If he wins most the primaries, he gets his shot.
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
It's a good night for Romney. It's not a great night for Santorum, but it's not a disaster either. We'll see if Romney picks up momentum into Super Tuesday or if Santorum maintains his slender edge.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
The King of Prawn, it was meta-ironic all caps, but still I did not know...
Dec '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
It's all good. I just spent the last 4 hours reloading my computer and managed to lose my bookmarks and my entire inbox. I may be a little touchy tonight...
Jul '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
katievs: Well, I'm happy for all you Mitt fans.
If he does win the nomination, I will be behind him. · 1 minute ago
We know it Katie.
ABO is the way to go.
I'm happy for Mitt. He put an awful lot of pressure on himself by calling his shot. It is a big relief to succeed in that context.
May '10
Re: Faux Live Chat: Michigan and Arizona edition
I hope the race stays competitive just to prep Romney, but come on. It's over. If Michigan was closed, Romney would have won by about 10% or more.