Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
The word over here -- as yet unconfirmed -- is that the UN tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri will indict not only members of Hezbollah for carrying out the killing but also Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for ordering the hit.
Sources close to the tribunal have allegedly said that "Iranians considered Hariri to be an agent of Saudi Arabia, and felt that killing him would pave the way for a Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon." Syria isn't off the hook -- both Syrian President Bashar Assad and head of Syrian intelligence Assef Shawkat have allegedly been fingered as well -- but the big news is the naming of Khameini.
A few weeks ago, Khameini preemptively declared all the tribunal's findings, whatever they may turn out to be, "null and void." At the time, the general assumption was that he was protecting his Hezbollah protégés. If the UN really is going to name him as the mastermind, President Obama will have little choice but to go beyond generic statements of support for Hariri (fils). It will no longer be possible to ignore the fact that Hezbollah is Iran, that Iran occupies south Lebanon, and that Iran directly threatens Israel -- and therefore the US -- not from a distance but along Israel's own northern border. The indictment of Khameini, if it materializes, will show Hezbollah's aggressions, up to and including the assassination of foreign heads of state, to be Iranian aggressions. If Obama backs away from confronting this extremely uncomfortable truth in the face of a UN indictment, it would constitute a grievous, and possibly very dangerous, capitulation.
This all has the potential to escalate fast, although I hasten to add two caveats: 1) the report of a Khameini indictment might not be true; and 2) none of the parties wants a confrontation. This report first appeared on Newsmax (an American news outlet) and was repeated on the Lebanese news website Naharnet and in the Israeli press, but I have not been able to find confirmation. More information should become available later: Lebanese daily Al Nahar is reporting that the tribunal will submit a draft indictment later today.
I'll let you know.
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May '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
Jeepers. The UN, of all organisations.
But honestly, does it matter to people in Lebanon what the UN tribunal finds? No, honestly, I'm asking. I've known some Lebanese, and they seem resigned to not having a real country.
Aug '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
Hi Judith,Would you care to speculate on how this will be spun to pin some blame on Israel? Some weeks ago I read (and posted) a story that Israeli hawks were waiting in the wings for an excuse to exact revenge on Hezbollah for the embarrassment inflicted by them in 2006.The current line from the same sources seems to be that Iran and the US are conducting a struggle through their respective proxies from positions of moral equivalence and to the detriment of the poor citizens of Lebanon.I also read that there is widespread distrust of the investigators in the country- I suspect that distrust is as widespread as support for Hezbollah and it's allies.It seems to me this is one of those situations where it's pretty easy to identify the bad guys, but maybe it's more nuanced than I allow?
Edited on Jan 15, 2011 at 2:17pmJun '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
I will be shocked if Khameini is named. I really can't imagine how the Obama administration will spin it.
Jun '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
When has Hezbollah ever shown respect for international law? Or the Iranian mullahs for that matter? The only thing these people respect is brute force. Fortunately for the west Mr. Netanyahu understands this even if Mr. Obama does not. God bless the IDF.
Sep '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
Thanks for keeping us informed. I am assuming that Iran has decided to end the democracy in Lebanon. Would this be a tolerable situation for Israel? It looks to me that O’s foreign policy scheme is collapsing. Hillary’s recent stumble may have been more prophetic than clumsy.
May '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
Whilst hardly a surprise the Iranian Mullahs up to their usually immorality, and murderous hatred, I will be much amazed if the UN does announce this. Perhaps the Gulf States, and that other mass hater of women -Saudi Arabia, are worried about the nuclear hegemony of Iran and trying to buy themselves more time.
A country with much promise and another generation of their youth is being wasted by an incompetent but dangerous group of thugs. It will be interesting to see how the much oppressed Iranian citizens react, will they fall in line in a chauvinistic way denouncing the West as having set it all up? Alternatively it may only add further confirmation as to the actions of the their religious leaders both internally, and externally to their country.
Edited on Jan 15, 2011 at 6:13amDec '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
Kennedy Smith:
But honestly, does it matter to people in Lebanon what the UN tribunal finds?
Does it really matter to anyone anywhere what any UN tribunal finds?
Other than when they point a finger at a US Republican administration, that is.
Jan '11
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
"If the UN really is going to name him as the mastermind, President Obama will have little choice but to go beyond generic statements of support for Hariri (fils)."
Anybody want to bet on that? I suspect Obama can be as generic as his Presidency is long.
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
I wonder what kids in Iran are thinking about the events in Tunisia?
Jul '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
The U.N. Telling it like it is?
That could shake your faith in things like Death and Taxes, or the Left's dislike of Sarah Palin.
Jul '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
If they really are planning to announce this, they must have bombshell evidence. They don't usually like to rock the international boat like that, especially when dealing with thug nations likely to call their bluff with defiance.
May '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
It seems laughable that Khamenei's power would be threatened by a U.N. report.
Even if they find him guilty of ordering an assassination, I half-expect the U.N. leadership will do their best to sweep this under the rug. The verdict's moment in the sun will be brief.
Sep '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
I wouldn't bet a penny on the UN doing the right thing but it sure would be nice to see and one can only hope the Obama administration would respond in clear and forceful terms...also likely vain hope.
May '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
IF IT HAPPENS, this would be the first useful thing to come from the UN in a long time. In the case of Lebanon it would be one positive in decades of negatives.
The end result will be nothing, but at least a little sunshine will serve as some king of mild disinfectant.
Dec '10
Re: Fasten Your Seat Belts, Folks
Gee: if Hezbollah is Iran, doesn't that mean that Iran waged war against Israel in 2006? And doesn't that mean that Israel has a right under international law to attack the sovereign territory of Iran in self-defense?