Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
Tensions have been rising in Lebanon for some time over the revelation of Hezbollah's role in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri. The hoo-ha last week over the discovery of alleged Israeli spying equipment in Lebanese territory was a fairly transparent attempt to deflect attention by rallying Lebanese popular sentiment in a familiar direction. (The fact that the devices were discovered several years ago, but the indignation reserved for last week, is a clue.)
A UN tribunal set up to investigate the Hariri assassination led directly to the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon after 29 years of occupation, so Sheik Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah's big cheese) has reason to be uncomfortable. He has threatened a "new era of resistance" directed towards any Lebanese who do not support the group against the tribunal, up to and including current Lebanese PM Sa'ad Hariri -- the murdered man's son.
In May 2009, Spiegel broke the story that the UN was likely to name Hezbollah for the crime. Nasrallah subsequently admitted that Hezbollah members would probably be indicted, but said (three guesses?) that the tribunal was set up by the Israelis and therefore a pack of Zionist lies. (The prime suspect is believed to be Mustafa Badr al-Din, a senior member of Hezbollah and brother-in-law of arch-terrorist and Hezbollah macher Imad Fayez Mugniyah.)
Earlier this year, Sa'ad Hariri said publicly that he does not believe Syria was behind his father's murder and that he supports the UN tribunal, which is about as close to a direct accusation as he is likely to get. Nasrallah has since demanded that the Lebanese government boycott the tribunal, a move that directly challenged the government's authority (Hezbollah is part of a so-called unity government; it has no right to dictate the government's actions) and that prompted a swat from the UN.
Last month, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation broke the news that substantial additional evidence has been uncovered that "points overwhelmingly to the fact that the assassins were from Hezbollah." Last week, Nasrallah again directly threatened all Lebanese who cooperate with the tribunal (and said he will "cut the hand" of anyone who attempts to arrest members of Hezbollah). Simultaneously with these threats, the alleged Israeli spying devices were pulled out of cold storage.
So what's next? UN Special Envoy Terje Roed-Larsen sees a "hurricane" on the horizon, and he may be right. Nasrallah's back is against the wall, and he will almost certainly see Hezbollah's only defensive maneuver as an offensive one -- or rather two, one against those Lebanese who won't fall in line and one against Israel. His importunings to the Lebanese people -- that Israel is the real enemy -- sound increasingly frantic, and a frantic, Iran-backed Nasrallah is a dangerous quantity indeed. His goal is the subjugation of Lebanon, but the Lebanese people have not forgotten Hariri. They threw off the Syrian yoke, and they will not necessarily submit quietly while Hariri's murderers ascend.
The UN tribunal's final report is expected in early 2011. Civil war in Lebanon is a distinct possibility, as is the launching by Hezbollah of a Hail Mary war with Israel.
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Comments :
Dec '10
Re: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
The assasination of Hariri was done in a spectacularly public way, so I really don't understand why whoever is responsible should be so offended by being publicly accused.
Aug '10
Re: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
All very informative Judith and certainly a radically different perspective than is fed to consumers of the MSM in Western Europe, and certainly here in Ireland where, incidentally, Fadlallah was lionized in at least one influential newspaper when he died.I'm not sure how a conflict involving the IDF but started by Hezbollah in response to the expected conclusion of the UN investigation will be blamed on Israel but that is what happened in 2006 and I don't doubt it will happen again.In fact the newspaper referred to above (Irish Times/Ms Michael Jansen) gave the following analysis last Friday:
"While Hizbullah does not want to face another Israeli assault rightist Maronite Christians, who have a presence in the south, could provide provocations sought by Israeli hawks eager to wreak vengeance on Hizbullah for compelling Israel to pull out of south Lebanon in 2000 and repelling Israel’s 2006 offensive."
This was in a news report, not presented as comment, by the way, and seems to me to be one indicator of how those unfriendly to Israel are laying the ground for a "blame Israel no matter what" response, no doubt with alleged disproportionality of IDF action also featuring strongly.
Edited on Dec 19, 2010 at 3:43amRe: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
Let's hope that, if this happens, the Israelis are ready. It would do everyone a lot of good if Hezbollah were humiliated and its leadership cut down.
Re: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
One thing to note here is that the UN Tribunal's work appears to be outstanding--a counter-example to the thesis that anything the UN touches in this region is bound to fail. Not sure what conclusions, if any, to draw from this. (Also not sure who leaked the story to Spiegel, or why, or how accurate it is--any thoughts, Judith?)
Dec '10
Re: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
Since the Tribunal's findings haven't been published yet, and we haven't seen what will result from this, I think that it's too early to decide how successful this project really is, Claire.
Re: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
Douglas Pologe
Since the Tribunal's findings haven't been published yet, and we haven't seen what will result from this, I think that it's too early to decide how successful this project really is, Claire. · Dec 19 at 6:39am
Yes, you're probably right.
Sep '10
Re: Eye on Lebanon: War(s) Brewing?
Might be interesting to note that Erich Follath -- the journalist who broke the story about Hezbollah's role in the assassination in Spiegel -- is known as a strong critic of Israel. Just two weeks before the Hezbollah article, he published an opinion piece in Spiegel in which he condemned Lieberman and Netanyahu (who he later compared to Ahmadinejad), and called for Israel to make "painful concessions, like concluding a peace agreement with Syria and giving back the Golan Heights."
Edited on Dec 19, 2010 at 8:27am