Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Please forgive me the vanity of quoting myself, but the temptation to say "I told you so" is just too great here.
In 2006, I published Menace in Europe: Why the Continent's Crisis is America's, Too. (I hate that title, by the way. My publishers insisted upon it, telling me the sales force thought the title I wanted, "Blackmailed by History," would never sell. I deeply regret that I didn't go to war over that. It didn't sell, anyway, and now I have to look at a book with a title I loathe for the rest of my life. There's a lesson in this, somewhere.)
I was sorry that the few people who did read it focussed almost entirely on one part of the book's message, my concern about growing Islamic radicalization in Europe. That was only one of my anxieties, and while it is a serious issue, I also noted the potential for a rise in equally minatory neo-fascist movements in Europe, and firmly dissociate myself from those who insist upon trivializing this possibility. It's a grave mistake for American conservatives to imagine that these movements represent something like the Tea Party. They don't.
But even this is not my point. My point is this. I wrote, in 2006:
Americans need not be much impressed by, or attempt to emulate, Europe's controlled economies and social welfare policies. ... Americans who are tempted to consider high levels of structural unemployment a reasonable price to pay for cradle-to-grave social welfare should consider more closely the social costs of that unemployment, particularly the barrier it constitutes to the economic integration and advancement of immigrants and thus to the entire polity's harmony and welfare. ...
I do not prophesy the imminent demise of European democratic institutions, nor do I predict imminent catastrophe on European soil. But I don't rule out these possibilities either. Europe's entitlement economy will collapse. Its demography will change. The European Union may unravel. ... We have no idea what these events would herald, but it is possible and reasonable to imagine a very ugly outcome.
And once again, the only people to whom this will come as a surprise are those who have not been paying attention.
Today, Bloomberg finally notices: To Thrive, Euro Countries Must Cut Welfare State:
Clearly, the welfare-state expansion in Greece and Portugal was part of the reason these two countries ended up as clients of Europe’s bailout mechanisms. But Ireland and Spain had problems with the rapid expansion of the state, too. A big part of rising affluence during the boom years was generated by escalating real-estate bubbles, which caused private debt to soar. They boosted the construction sectors and, more generally, pushed domestic consumption to the point where Spain had to borrow as much as 8 percent of gross domestic product every year to finance its current account deficit. Like other bubbles, they spearheaded economic growth, which allowed governments to expand the state rapidly.
That growth vanished and gold turned to sand. Simply put, the bubble-fueled prosperity wasn’t sustainable. A record of solid fiscal surpluses was quickly turned into high structural deficits. Spain, for instance, entered 2008 with a budget surplus of slightly more than 2 percent, and ended 2009 with a structural deficit of 9 percent.
This has been a familiar story during the crisis. Yet surprisingly few people in Europe have bothered to understand the role that the welfare state played in creating it. ...
Europe’s crisis economies will now have to radically reduce their welfare states. State spending in Spain will have to shrink by at least a quarter; Greece should count itself lucky if the cut is less than a half of the pre-crisis expenditure level.
The worse news is that this is likely to be only the first round of welfare-state corrections. The next decade will usher Europe into the age of aging, when inevitably the cost of pensions will rise and providing health care for the elderly will be an even bigger cost driver. This demographic shift will be felt everywhere, including in the Nordic group of countries that has been saved from the worst effects of the sovereign-debt crisis. ...
Europe’s social systems will look very different 20 years from now. They will still be around, but benefit programs will be far less generous, and a greater part of social security will be organised privately. Welfare services, like health care, will be exposed to competition and, to a much greater degree, paid for out of pocket or by private insurance.
The big divide in Europe won’t be between North and South or left and right. It will be between countries that diligently manage the transition away from the universal welfare state that has come to define the European social model, and countries that will be forced by events to change the hard way.
Well, you know--no kidding. How can something that was so obvious have escaped so many people? That's a serious question, by the way. What the hell was wrong with so many people that they couldn't see this coming? This crisis was a barreling freight train complete with deafening sirens and flashing-red, all-hands-on-deck alarms. Yet for some reason, the world just decided to grab a comfy pillow, pop a Xanax, and take a good long snooze on the train tracks.
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Nov '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Ron: Claire,
If you add to your knowledge by reading Ron Pestrito's American Progressivism (progressivism in the progressive's own words) and even better by also taking Hillsdale College's Constittution course on line you may finally grasp the complete lunacy of liberalism. Progressivism came into America from, chiefly, Germany through our colleges. By taking over the school system they have trained everyone to believe progressivism/liberalism is rational. It isn't.
Ma'am I have complete respect for the intellectuality of you and your father David but this scam has even exceeded your powers of analysis. GRIN
Ron · 2 hours ago
I don't see that Claire needs any lessons in the damage the progressives have done, and the question remains as to why, even among progressives, self-preservation does not kick in at some point. There have been some good answers to that question on this thread, and I would just add that this is an old, old story, and not limited to progressive blindness. We Americans are lucky to have the example of Europe before us, but optimistically we appear to have only a 50-50 chance of doing anything about it.
May '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Europe's future: Greek town replaces currency with barter system
From the BBC.
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
The reason that people cannot see the handwriting on the wall is that, if they were to do so, they would have to admit that they were in the past wrong --and not wrong on minor matters, wrong on fundamentals. One of the reasons that the American left is perpetually angry -- apt to say vile things about Sarah Palin's family, Mitt Romney's religion, Anne Romney's life as a homemaker -- is that, in suggesting that they are wrong on fundamentals, we are threatening their very essence. Like fascism and communism, progressivism is a secular religion. Attack its eschatology and you are attacking the heart and soul of the true believers. I do hope that Romney has the wit to make this election turn on the legitimacy of the administrative entitlements state. In 2013, if all that we do is rearrange the deck chairs on our national Titanic, we will be in far greater trouble than we are now.
Feb '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Paul Rahe..."The reason that people cannot see the handwriting on the wall is that, if they were to do so, they would have to admit that they were in the past wrong --and not wrong on minor matters, wrong on fundamentals."
Furthermore: in many cases, admitting that they were wrong represents a huge threat to their self-esteem, because much of their self-esteem comes from a feeling of moral superiority. This phenomenon is particularly visible among academics, many of whom are more status-obsessed even than people in general and simply cannot stand the fact that some guy without a PhD makes more money than they do and (they think) is more highly-respected.
So admitting error is political philosophy does not just make them doubt their own judgment, but their own worth. And this they cannot do.
Mar '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Apr '12
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Claire - glad to learn that your publishers were responsible for that title, not you! I read the book about six months ago and liked it very much (especially the sections on Marseilles and on Rammstein). I almost didn't buy it at first, though, because the title seemed like an exercise in cheap fear-mongering. Had to look beyond the cover (title + car-B-Q) to get motivated to plunk down the cash.
Do you have any updates on Marseilles? Is it still something of an oasis in terms of ethnic/cultural relations in France, or has it reverted to the norm (so to speak) in the last six years?
Jun '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Casey
17 minutes ago
Another great philosopher on the same subject:
Jun '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Let it be known that I own a copy and have read this excellent, if clumsily titled, book.
Claire Berlinski, Walter Laqueur, and Mark Steyn are my "go-to" authors on the demise of Europe.
An organization (the EU) that can now re-imagine World War II as the "European Civil War" are doomed. See Member Feed for more: http://ricochet.com/member-feed/Orwell-Lives!!-World-War-II-is-Now-The-European-Civil-War
Edited on April 20, 2012 at 5:52pmOct '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Scientists call it “normalcy bias”—the expectation things will remain as they are drowns out contrary data, causing sane people to do insane things, like the proverbial rearranging of Titanic’s deck chairs that Prof Rahe notes is now a national pastime.
We live in a world where the climate in 100 years is hotly debated, but a President & Senate that can’t produce a budget in three years, while running indefinite $Trillion + deficits, produces yawns among the intelligentsia.
We’ve had all the warning a free people can expect. Paul Ryan has been loudly decrying our fiscal madness as setting us up for the “most predictable crisis” we’ve ever confronted as a nation. The Tea Party movement is a nation-wide political revolt principally aroused by Federal fiscal irresponsibility. Claire’s book was joined by others, with Mark Steyn’s works being among the best known.
In the end, it’s all about Presidential-level leadership. Reagan and Thatcher didn’t just hear the train whistle. They processed the noise, integrated it into their worldview and then took action—made tough, risky decisions and brought the rest of their countrymen along. Need I say more?
Mar '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
It appears there are no criteria for assessing failure that proponents of the European economic model will accept. Belief in it is in that sense unscientific: the notion that it can be sustained without eventual collapse is an untestable hypothesis. If it seems to be in crisis, it's because it hasn't been tried long enough, not enough public money has been spent, or people haven't been taxed and regulated enough to make it work. When indications of failure become rationalizations for continuing a program -- stepping it up, even -- it ceases to matter what happens, when you think about it. Success or failure, they will reach the same conclusion: Keep it going.
Edited on April 20, 2012 at 6:30pmApr '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
There are many among the most educated elites and more than a few in the less educated classes in the US, Europe, Africa and South America where this may be apropo. It might particularly apply to Europe because it is the birthplace of socialism (and Marxism).
"Altering the belief would be difficult, people were committed at considerable expense to maintain it. Another option would be to enlist social support for their belief. As Festinger wrote, "If more and more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it must after all be correct." In this case, if (progressives, social democrats, and socialists) could add consonant elements by converting others to the basic premise, (if they can march through the institutions), then the magnitude of (their) dissonance following disconfirmation would be reduced."
And so the stories the Europeans (and others) tell themselves are full of consonant elements avoiding dissonance. Consideration of failure or crisis in books (like Ms. Berlinski's), the press, the academy, or the culture would admit an intolerable amount of dissonance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
Edited on April 20, 2012 at 8:28pmNov '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
I read your book early last year, Ma'am, and agreed with it entirely. I was especially taken with the discussion of neo-fascist movements (as an example, the man now on trial in Norway seems a good one).
I cannot escape the sense that the whole scene in Europe, including the fascist / neo-communist awakenings (though they do not right now appear to be mass movements) and the refusal to deal with the situation in Iran, is eerily reminiscent of the 1930's.
Could you comment on that? You may see significant differences in tone and substance, but I haven't yet found them.
Sep '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
...What the hell was wrongwith so many people that they couldn't see this coming? This crisis was a barreling freight train complete with deafening sirens and flashing-red, all-hands-on-deck alarms. Yet for some reason, the world just decided to grab a comfy pillow, pop a Xanax, and take a good long snooze on the train tracks. · · 9 hours ago
Those wonderful lines were just begging to be quoted so that we could read them again. Whatever was wrong with those people, I guess in November we'll find out if it's wrong with a majority of Americans too.
Dec '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Claire,
I read the book when it came out and often think about it, especially the neo fascist, nihilist element under the surface. Looking forward to the next round of Euro elections. As a tourist, I was so impressed with the civility of the place, but the book actually opened my mind on a few things. How often do you read a book that does that?
That book, and your presence caused me to join Ricochet.
Oh, and loved the Rammstein videos. Who knew?
Apr '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
It is worth noting that the communist parties of Greece will gain about 25% of the vote in the May election. The KKE (Communist Party of Greece) and SYRIZA (The Coalition of the Radical Left) will each get about 10%. Numerous other communist parties like The Anti-capitalist Left Overthrow (revolutionary communist) will also get votes. The political spectrum from PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist) leftward will garner about half the votes in coming Greek election.
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/04/18/greek-elections-latest-public-survey/
Mar '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Sandy & Claire,
It is not that I don't think Claire has "gotten it." She has. Nor is it that I feel the least bit patronizing. But having taken the Hillsdale College Constritution Course I realize the depth of progressive depravity in a way I never understood before and can't resist saying so.
Claire indicated she is taking the course. I also recommend it to anyone that hasn't taken it -- don't walk, run, please.
BTW, I have read Claire as well as David her father. Normally, I would be all over their list of publications and soaking it all in. However right for the moment there are other publications of more immediate interest to me. Her and David have impressed me enough to stop me from simply reading and to begin following the Trivium methods of summarizing everything I read, ala Thomas Jefferson. I'm covering less ground but enjoying it more.
Ron
Feb '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
Maybe at some level the Euro-lefties know it can't be paid for over the long term, but are just not willing to do anything/alienate anyone for it. Europe's day of reckoning is pretty much here. We're also on the path -- there's still time to turn it around-- but not much. A change at the top this November will be a good place to start.
Maybe the Wisconsin unions know the gravy train can't go on forever, but will just wait for the trainwreck before being willing to give up anything at all.
Oct '11
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
The only comment missing. People are idiots. There. I said it. I have a cousin who has lived here in the states now for 10 years (born and raised in Scotland) and she regularly criticizes the states for its lack of "support". Just recently she was praising a Scandanavian country (I think) because there when you get laid off you still get paid the same as if you were working. I don't know if it's true - the point here is that she thought it was a great system and one the US should adopt. It's hardly sophisticated economic theory to explain why it's a bad idea - especially when there are so many examples in real time. But there's no getting through to her. And I dare say she's not alone.
Jul '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
You certainly have earned the right to say, "I told you so." Or as Robert Conquest wanted to title a book, "I Told You so, You Bloody *****Idiots>"
Jul '10
Re: Europe and the Bleedingly Obvious
The late Herbert Stein, father of Ben promulgated Stein's Law: If something can't continue it won't. What you have predicted is that Europe will be following his law, and so will we, sooner than we think. Just remember what happened to Cassandra. But we'll protect you.