Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Congressman Paul Ryan’s plan is brilliant, but presenting it during this congressional session was an epic blunder that shifted the political debate away from the failures of the Democrat Party’s left wing policies and put the Republicans on the defensive until the 2012 election. The landslide 2010 election rolled to the Republican’s favor due to the massive social upheaval of Obamacare. And what do the Republicans do? Create massive social upheaval with Medicare reform. With the Senate and White House under Democrat control the Medicare reform plan has ZERO chance of passing. What strategic purpose was served to present it now? None.
As an example, the Wisconsin public sector union reforms were presented AFTER taking the Governorship and an overwhelming majority in the State Senate. In my opinion, the Republicans should have demanded $200-$300 billion in across the board spending cuts and moved on to the 2012 election without painting a massive target on their backs. The Medicare reform plan should have waited until after the 2012 election.
Ricochet—what do you think?
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May '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Another excuse to kick the can down the road. To accept the idea that Republicans can never say anything, or enact a program to control costs is to say that:
A) Americans are too dumb to understand the consequences
B) The Liberals have won and all we should do is promise to be better managers of the welfare state and better managers of American decline
May '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
At some point you stop ducking and pretending and assume that your electorate is ready to grow up, provided that the message is transmitted properly. Thus far, it has not been, and it is also early in the game.
At this time in 1991, GHW Bush was a shoo-in for re-election.
Oct '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
When I hear the excuse of "messaging," I get flashbacks to the Democrats defending Obamacare.
Oct '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
EJHill: Another excuse to kick the can down the road. To accept the idea that Republicans can never say anything, or enact a program to control costs is to say that:
A) Americans are too dumb to understand the consequences
B) The Liberals have won and all we should do is promise to be better managers of the welfare state and better managers of American decline · Jun 7 at 7:48pm
A) Obama's job approval ratings in the polls hover around 50%, so at least 50% of Americans ARE too dumb.
B) My argument is the timing.
Jun '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Ken: I do think it was important to put it out when he did because it has big ramifications down the road. But, for everyone to pretend as if this is the greatest thing in the world and that it must be defended at all costs is silly. It won't get passed. It's a large and beautiful trial balloon and we should realize that first. Then we can see it for what it really is useful for -- as a way to get the debate started on our terms.
I also think the Republicans can use it for a new contract with America. Republicans must find a way (like Newt did in 1994) to talk over the heads of the Democratic Media Complex. We are right. 70% or more of the country agree with us on most issues but especially on the fiscal stuff. The problem is that they have been conditioned to distrust conservatives.
But, your main point about timing is only important if we were trying to be like the Dems and bait and switch. This isn't a scam -- we really mean it and we will continue to think like this later on. We're dependable.
Oct '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
I don't have any real answers Ken, just more questions.
Oct '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
I did like the link to Brit Hume--a triangulation on the Welfare Reform bill that secured Clinton's reelection.
My main point is that today's budget deficits are NOT caused by Medicare, and strategically the Republicans should have attacked the areas causing today's budget deficit.
Dec '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Ken Sweeney
My main point is that today's budget deficits are NOT caused by Medicare, and strategically the Republicans should have attacked the areas causing today's budget deficit. · Jun 8 at 8:35am
What does cause the majority of today's budget deficits? I submit that it is from cementing the stimulus into the baseline by running the government from the time of its passage until now on CRs.
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
If all that you want to do is to hold office, there is a case for dodging the really serious issues. If you actually want to govern, it is best to confront them head on. The fact that the moribund New York Republican Party cannot win a particular Congressional seat tells us nothing about the Mediscare question. It is in fact a test of the Republicans. Do they have backbones? If not, the Tea-Party Movement may give up in disgust. In NY-26, the Republicans ran a squish, and 8% of the voters opted for somebody who called himself a Tea-Partier. Add that 8% to the Republican vote, and the Republican candidate would have won.
May '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
I beg to differ. If it was unveiled closer to 2012, it would cause more people to panic, and it could be demagogued harder and easier with no time to respond.
May '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
I'm inclined to agree, with regret. If the 2012 election turns on nothing but Medicare, Republicans lose. Americans will be browbeaten for an entire year with "killing Grandma" ads, and no amount of truth will counter that.
It would be easier to run on "repeal Obamacare" again, although maybe the courts will make that moot before the election.
The only hope is to make it all about the deficit and spending, oil and unemployment, which may be possible if things continue to go badly.
Dec '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Sometimes strategy is not about what you can accomplish, but what you can force your opponent to do.
Ryan's entitlements plan and the "Ryan budget" the House passed have great strategic value in forcing the Democrats into a dilemma: either they come up with their own plan or they expose themselves as defenders of $trillion-plus deficits for as far as the eye can see.
Ryan has enabled the GOP to challenge the Dems (including the President) at every turn: "Where is your plan? Where is your budget? How will you avert the imminent self-destruction of Medicare and Social Security?"
Being too timid to draw a distinction between the GOP and the Democrats on any issues of substance and sensitivity will only invite voters to stick with the status quo. Last I checked, the status quo was Democrat control of the Senate and the White House.
Dec '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
"Harder and easier" strange turn of a phrase. If your theory holds true, then the problem is that people are really willing to believe a horror story over a bland truth. That's a problem that no amount of government (great or small) can rectify.
Dec '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Thank God that at least one prominent Republican understands the strategic value of Ryan's plan:
WALLACE: All right. Let me move you along to another subject. Do you support Congressman Paul Ryan's plan to overhaul Medicare?
PALIN: I do. And I have from day one. This will save Medicare. It will save the safety net of health care coverage that our elders in this country need. I am very frustrated with Democrats and with the media trying to spin Paul Ryan's efforts here in trying to save and shore up Medicare, because what's being spun, Chris, this misperception, this misconception that he's trying to do away with Medicare.
Now, what's going to do away with Medicare is if we keep going down the road that we're on. But Obama evidently wants us to go down because we will have a bankrupt Medicare system. There will be no safety net unless we shore it up. That's what Paul Ryan is attempting to do.
May '11
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
Ryan's Path to Prosperity budget proposal was actually fairly modest in scope . I think he knew how Democrats would react and he and most of the Republican leadership are willing if not happy to take on that argument. It is an easy argument to win and now is the perfect time to start the fight. To try to pass major reform without including it in the pre-election argument would be like cramming Obamacare down our throats through the senate reconciliation process.
Mar '11
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
In the long run, it’s a strategic blunder to infantilize the voters. If we want to fix this mess, we need more than electoral victories in November 2012. We need a mandate. And we won’t get one if we keep mum on what we intend to do and how we intend to do it.
Feb '11
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
I'm on vacation right now (only from work, not from Ricochet) and we get USA Today delivered to our room. Yesterday's cover talked about our long term liabilities and pegged the number at $500,000+ per person. I have always taken USA Today to be an organ of bland conventional wisdom (forgive me if I offend), so it was encouraging to see that them talking about this. The facts are on our side here and the more light that is shed on the subject the better. Entitlements are an existential threat to the nation, we don't have the option of not dealing with them.
Apr '11
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
A couple points:
May '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
"Harder and easier" strange turn of a phrase. If your theory holds true, then the problem is that people are really willing to believe a horror story over a bland truth. That's a problem that no amount of government (great or small) can rectify
No, the closer you get to needing to meet a decision (election), the more conservative you become (not politically conservative). It takes time to rationally consider something; it doesn't take time to get scared. The bigger the decision, the more time it take to make the decision
May '10
Re: Epic Strategic Blunder: The Ryan Medicare Reform
"Harder and easier" strange turn of a phrase.
Not really. Know the expression October Surprise? It's an example of "harder and easier." Harder=more extreme. Easier=more likely to succeed in its irrational effect
Edited on Jun 8, 2011 at 9:49am