ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
This just appeared in the NY Times: "'We’re supporting ElBaradei leading the path to change,” said Mohammed el-Beltagui, a Brotherhood leader and former member of Parliament. 'The Brotherhood realizes the sensitivities, especially in the West, toward the Islamists. And we are keen not to be at the forefront at this time.'”
Translation: ElBaradei works for us now, and we'll step forward formally when we're good and ready.
The Brotherhood has said it will only take part in a unity government (there it is, the inevitable phrase) from which Mubarak's party has been excluded. Because ElBaradei has apparently allied himself with the Brotherhood, that statement is tantamount to a refusal by ElBaradei to govern together with Suleiman (not that Suleiman would necessarily have been interested in stepping back from any position other than President anyway, now that Mubarak has placed him in line for the top spot -- particularly if it means answering to a Brotherhood stand-in). There are now, therefore, two clear sides: the Muslim Brotherhood (fronted by ElBaradei) and Suleiman. We will not see a scenario in which one will temper the other in a unity government. One will defeat the other full stop.
The Americans are in a serious bind here. Suleiman is undoubtedly the more palatable of the two choices from an American perspective, but ElBaradei -- the fig leaf for an Islamist, anti-democratic organization -- is ostensibly a pro-democracy figure at the head of a popular uprising against a repressive autocrat. It's difficult to see how the US can possibly back Suleiman -- the dictator's designate -- over the putative democrat. According to al-Jazeera, protesters in Cairo are already chanting, "Hosni Mubarak, Omar Suleiman, both of you are agents of the Americans."
Still, the game isn't over. As ever, beware the hasty generalization. It may be probable, but it is not a given that an election pitting ElBaradei against Suleiman would result in an ElBaradei landslide. The Times spoke to Sarah Elyashy, "a 33-year-old woman in the neighborhood of Heliopolis, where men armed with broomsticks and kitchen knives took to the streets to defend their homes against the threat of looters. 'I wish we could be like the United States with our own democracy, but we can’t,' [she] said. 'We have to have a ruler with an iron hand.'"
Whether or not you approve the sentiment, there may be many others who feel the way she does -- to say nothing of Egyptians who are determined to see democracy overtake autocracy but are horrified at the prospect of opening the door to an Islamist takeover. A tenth of Egypt's population is Christian, and they, as well as other groups, will not be inclined to welcome the Brotherhood with open arms. Assume nothing, in other words. We are watching the contenders take up positions. We don't know yet which way the contest is going to end.
Still. A commenter on one of my earlier posts asked if the Israelis are starting to get nervous. This one is.
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Dec '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
"We will not see a scenario in which one will temper the other in a unity government. One will defeat the other full stop."
They may fight each other to a draw and be forced to join together in a unity government. It depends on how much blood each side is willing to spill and how strong each side is relative to the other.
It might even be possible that they will look over the edge of the abyss and decide to step back, preferring not to start a true civil war to cooperating with their opponents.
However, your prediction is very highly likely to come to pass.
Jul '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Judith, that photograph appears on the Muslim Brotherhood's English-language website. Very inspirational.
But on their Arab-language website, it's a very different story. That site features a graphic referring to a passage in the Koran which enjoins Muslims to make war upon their enemies.
h/t Big Peace
http://bigpeace.com/cbrim/2011/01/30/muslim-brotherhood-deception-they-say-different-things-in-english-and-arabic/
Edited on Jan 30, 2011 at 1:40pmJul '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Am I the only one who finds it remarkable that whenever we see photographs of demonstrations on the Muslim street, most of the placards and banners are in English?
Yet, when one sees pictures of demonstrations France or Russia, the signs are in French or Russian.
What's up with this?
Edited on Jan 30, 2011 at 1:51pmRe: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Thanks, Judith. This is helpful. I Tweeted it. People should read it.
Jul '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
It's understandable that Iran would employ ElBaradei in order to destabilize their biggest Sunni rival. But one wonders how much further their plotting might take things.
Certainly, they would welcome Egypt back into the anti-Israeli fold, together with Lebanon. Proxy war, anyone?
May '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
That "Freedom" should be written on her hijab.
Dec '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Unity government? I have seen numbers that suggest the Christian population varies up to a maximum of 20 percent. Let's use that as maximum when adding up the "voters". Using the numbers from Prof. Rahe's earlier post, from 54 to 75 percent of Egyptians support the implementation of Shariah, dependent upon the extent.
That means that as few as 5 percent as secular, or "moderate Muslim", up to a maximum of 26 percent, plus a maximum of 20 percent Christian, might align. With those numbers, a maximum of 46 percent would line up against the formation of an Islamist state.
Jul '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
CJRun:
With those numbers, a maximum of 46 percent would line up against the formation of an Islamist state. · Jan 30 at 3:19pm
Even assuming substantial pro-Sharia squishes who could be won over, there's another dimension CJ. Here we talk about likely voters vs. registered voters.
But there -if it's likely to be close at all- who's going to be allowed to vote? I doubt wearing a cross will get one to the front of the line.
Sure the Brotherhood would rather win straight up, but if push comes to shove they'll win first & worry about legitimacy later.
Aug '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Every once in a while one hears calls for accommodation of Sharia law in European societies-the Archbishop of Canterbury has famously raised the issue. While I have previously recoiled at the idea I think on further reflection that it would be a wonderful experiment for the entire European Union to apply the core principles of Sharia (as they apply to daily activities) for a designated period- perhaps during a week of Ramadan- with State- enforced adherence to the rules during that time, and similar penalties for non-adherence as apply in Islamist jurisdictions.I have no doubt that such a process would contribute greatly to a better understanding on the part of the non-Muslim citizenry of daily life in such jurisdictions and perhaps lead to a level of understanding of the serious issues raised by the current unrest that is sadly lacking (present company and contributors excepted). And who knows, maybe the Islamist societies could reciprocate by letting it all hang out, Western-style, for a day or two every millennium?
Jun '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
There's something symbolic to me that a guy who has been hanging around the UN for ages manages to get himself hooked up with the Muslim Brotherhood so fast. Fine, call me cynical.
Sep '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Still. A commenter on one of my earlier posts asked if the Israelis are starting to get nervous. This one is.
I believe you had pegged the Israeli on the street as worrying at a 2 out of 10 intensity level. I'll take yours as higher than that, though I won't ask how high.
Edited on Jan 30, 2011 at 9:41pmSep '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Every once in a while one hears calls for accommodation of Sharia law in European societies-the Archbishop of Canterbury has famously raised the issue.
Well, that would supply the punchline to that old joke about a certain US President turning to his aide and asking for a one armed economist so he wouldn't have to hear endless careens of "...on the other hand."
May '10
Re: ElBaradei Stakes His Claim; Muslim Brotherhood Ascendant
Given the phrasing, that sounds like the Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants is laying claim to El Baradei rather than the reverse. As a man they can work with and have some hope of heavily influencing, but who isn't necessarily in their pocket.
Is it known that he would be a puppet/front man, rather than merely sympathetic? And aren't all ruling parties excluded from governments after revolutions?