Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
The correct response to events in Egypt is
A) To be thrilled. Ricochet member Trace Urdan: "This is a moment where I am proud to be a squish....increasingly around the world the standard for a normal, respectable form of government is democracy and we should have more confidence in that truth."
B) To feel warily optimistic. Ricochet member Tom Davis: "[I]t looks like there will be elections; those elections will be at least a little free; the military is probably going to keep a check on the Muslim Brotherhood....with a little luck, Egypt will be less of a dictatorship and more of democracy."
C) To view events in Egypt as playing into the hands of the Islamic radicals. Ricochet member Freeman: "Mark my words: the shouts for 'freedom' and 'democracy' are merely the same old populist utopian claptrap...waiting to be silenced by the most ruthless element in the society."
My choice? B).
The yearning for democracy appears genuine, I can see no obvious bad guy--no Khomeini--anywhere on the scene, and the Egyptian military, with which the American armed forces have developed close ties, has demonstrated prudence, restraint, and a fundamental respect for the Egyptian people. Something truly new may actually be happening in Egyptian society--and in the wider Arab world.
But it would indeed be truly new. How many precedents for the organic development of democracy have some 1,300 years of Islam produced in the Arab world? Zero. Iraq is now democratic, more or less, but an outside force--us, obviously--made that possible. Lebanon produced a functioning democracy for a few years during the nineteen-seventies, but the Christian minority played a central--perhaps the dominant--role. What Egypt is about to attempt has never been done before. Not once.
And the risks, pitfalls, and dangers prove numberless. Has Egypt just produced a genuinely popular revolution? Yes. But so did Russia in February 1917. In October 1917, Lenin staged a putsch against the true revolution, enslaving Russia for more than seven decades. Does the Muslim Brotherhood command the support of a minority of Egyptians? Apparently. But the Nazis won less than 44 percent of the vote in 1933. They then concocted a crisis--the burning of the Reichstag--and jammed the Enabling Act through the legislature, giving Hitler dictatorial powers.
I've been as moved as anyone by the scenes of rejoicing in Tahrir Square, and I agree, for now, with Ricochet member Tom Davis. "Given the situation in Egypt as it was," Tom wrote, "it is hard to imagine a better outcome than we have." As I say, I agree with Tom--for now. But dangers abound, the stakes involve not only Egypt but the entire Arab world, Israel, and, because the Middle East plays so central a role in world affairs, all the globe.
I'm plenty happy. But I'm also plenty wary.
Choice B). That's me.
You?
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Comments:
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Is it okay to be warily pessimistic?
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
(Con’t.)
At the moment, because the ball is in the military’s court, we don’t known what’s going on. In general, though, the military is against the things that the U.S. government is against: the Muslim Brotherhood and war with Israel. So that’s one reason for cautious (if perhaps temporary) optimism.
The other is that the military doesn’t exist apart from society—while one worries about scary trends infiltrating the military, it’s worth remembering that good trends can also soak in. I’m thinking here of the obvious desire of millions of Egyptians to simply live in a country where they can speak freely, criticize their government, and not be robbed blind by a political mafia and the corporatist robber-barons who were held out the face of economic liberation.
Egypt was a fear society built on lies, and it’s a tremendously hopeful sign that a huge segment of society seems to have become sick of it, no longer fearing the consequences of speaking the truth, claiming a legitimate public role for the people, and reaching for something better.
I hope they get it.
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Heck, yeah.
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Oh, and B is my choice for the future. As to a non-violent uprising ousting a brute like Mubarak…it’s hard not to be thrilled. It’s the future that worries.
May '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
"Like Friedman, Hayek glimpsed in Pinochet the avatar of true freedom, who would rule as a dictator only for a 'transitional period,' only as long as needed to reverse decades of state regulation. 'My personal preference,' he told a Chilean interviewer, 'leans toward a liberal dictatorship rather than toward a democratic government devoid of liberalism.'"
From Greg Grandin's "Milton Friedman and the Economics of Empire: The Road from Serfdom"
Edited on February 13, 2011 at 9:44amSep '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
TeeJaw : Before you can believe there is a yearning for democracy in Egypt you have to get around these results from the recent Pew Research poll highlighted in the Investors Business Daily yesterday:
• 49% of Egyptians say Islam plays only a "small role" in public affairs under President Hosni Mubarak, while 95% prefer the religion play a "large role in politics."• 84% favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim faith.• 82% support stoning adulterers.• 77% think thieves should have their hands cut off.• 54% support a law segregating women from men in the workplace.• 54% believe suicide bombings that kill civilians can be justified.• Nearly half support the terrorist group Hamas.• 30% have a favorable opinion of Hezbollah.• 20% maintain positive views of al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden.• 82% of Egyptians dislike the U.S. — the highest unfavorable rating among the 18 Muslim nations Pew surveyed.
How do you conclude that these people want democracy? · Feb 12 at 12:26pm
Edited on Feb 12 at 12:27 pm
Exactly so. Can the military, through force, change any of these numbers? I kinda doubt it. Put me down as "C."
Edited on February 13, 2011 at 9:11pmMay '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
To defend my straw man position a bit: I was really objecting to the Glenn Beck Caliphate-is-Coming! talk all over the radio. By all means we should be pragmatic, wary, and resolute in our self-interest and defense of Israel. But having just felt a taste of throwing off one oppressor, I can't see the crowds in Tahrir allowing themselves to be subjected to another. I also can't see the Army rolling over to the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt was out ally not because of Mubarak but because it made sense for them to be. It still makes sense.
May '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Jul '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Fair enough Trace, but you didn't have to say it twice. By the way, I really hope you get to rub it in a couple of years down the road, including, but not limited to, end-zone style taunts. I'd love to be wrong.