Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
The correct response to events in Egypt is
A) To be thrilled. Ricochet member Trace Urdan: "This is a moment where I am proud to be a squish....increasingly around the world the standard for a normal, respectable form of government is democracy and we should have more confidence in that truth."
B) To feel warily optimistic. Ricochet member Tom Davis: "[I]t looks like there will be elections; those elections will be at least a little free; the military is probably going to keep a check on the Muslim Brotherhood....with a little luck, Egypt will be less of a dictatorship and more of democracy."
C) To view events in Egypt as playing into the hands of the Islamic radicals. Ricochet member Freeman: "Mark my words: the shouts for 'freedom' and 'democracy' are merely the same old populist utopian claptrap...waiting to be silenced by the most ruthless element in the society."
My choice? B).
The yearning for democracy appears genuine, I can see no obvious bad guy--no Khomeini--anywhere on the scene, and the Egyptian military, with which the American armed forces have developed close ties, has demonstrated prudence, restraint, and a fundamental respect for the Egyptian people. Something truly new may actually be happening in Egyptian society--and in the wider Arab world.
But it would indeed be truly new. How many precedents for the organic development of democracy have some 1,300 years of Islam produced in the Arab world? Zero. Iraq is now democratic, more or less, but an outside force--us, obviously--made that possible. Lebanon produced a functioning democracy for a few years during the nineteen-seventies, but the Christian minority played a central--perhaps the dominant--role. What Egypt is about to attempt has never been done before. Not once.
And the risks, pitfalls, and dangers prove numberless. Has Egypt just produced a genuinely popular revolution? Yes. But so did Russia in February 1917. In October 1917, Lenin staged a putsch against the true revolution, enslaving Russia for more than seven decades. Does the Muslim Brotherhood command the support of a minority of Egyptians? Apparently. But the Nazis won less than 44 percent of the vote in 1933. They then concocted a crisis--the burning of the Reichstag--and jammed the Enabling Act through the legislature, giving Hitler dictatorial powers.
I've been as moved as anyone by the scenes of rejoicing in Tahrir Square, and I agree, for now, with Ricochet member Tom Davis. "Given the situation in Egypt as it was," Tom wrote, "it is hard to imagine a better outcome than we have." As I say, I agree with Tom--for now. But dangers abound, the stakes involve not only Egypt but the entire Arab world, Israel, and, because the Middle East plays so central a role in world affairs, all the globe.
I'm plenty happy. But I'm also plenty wary.
Choice B). That's me.
You?
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I would have to go with "B" as well. Optimistic because the people will soon have a choice; wary because the foundational concept of liberty may not be the driving motivation. Democracy does not necessarily portend liberty, but liberty seems to be antithetical to almost any other form of government.
Aug '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
As I was reading this, the thought occurred to me that if this country were undergoing to same thing, you know overthrowing tyranny by demonstrating in the streets. And the voices are heard, and Obama does a head feint, then does step down when confronted by the military ( or Oprah,whatever...) . General Petraeus makes a statement, and then the head of intelligence, like Suleiman, becomes the ....and boom ! I am stopped dead in the tracks of my thought by the realization that in our case, Clapper would be taking over . Whoa, that is a sobering thought . what rhymes with Negroponte ? I dreamt of Negroponte, And slept as a babe at night. The world becomes inferno ala Dante.... it doesnt work either. Egypt, like Poland resembles a Jimi Hendrix tune: ...tire tracks all across your back, I can see you've had your fun.... Things in the Muslim world have never turned out even close to well, except for Bush(both) and Iraq.
Jul '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I won't breathe easy on this one until Obama is out of office a year.
Dec '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I choose (B) as well. There are plenty of ways for the Egyptians to screw up from here -- the military could decide to stay in power indefinitely, they could try transitioning to democracy prematurely without developing parties and institutions that are its needed foundation, the Muslim Brotherhood could mount a counter-coup.
But the fact that the Egyptians now have the opportunity to screw up -- and the concomitant opportunity to create something new in the Middle East, an indigenous Arab Muslim democracy -- means they are far better off than they were a month ago.
I am reminded of another group of people that rebelled against Egyptian autocracy, left the country... and within a few weeks were crying out to God, "Why didn't you leave us in Egypt, where at least we had bread and onions?" Let's hope it doesn't take this generation of Egyptians forty years of bumbling about to get it right.
Oct '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Wishfull thinking, is anyone up on what the populace wants most..Simply the wants and or needs that mean a quality life there... Feel once that issue has been satisfied there will be a strong effort to grow and continue and remove any elements to drag them into the past.
Jun '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
"Could Urban Poverty in Egypt Be Grossly Underestimated?"
http://www.soas.ac.uk/cdpr/publications/dv/file58993.pdf
(and if that's underestimated, could the MB's influence also be underestimated.)
Jun '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I have an extensive knowledge about Russia, but rarely have the courage to predict anything that will ever happen there. It's usually a fool's errand.
Egypt's unpredictability is a huge multiple of Russia's, so I'm far less qualified to guess right. However, If forced, I'd say B-, if that's allowed. Just your mention of the fact that this has never worked successfully in the Middle East upholds my guarded optimism (or perhaps my guarded pessimism, not sure which).
My usual theme for Russia is that they never fail to screw up a good thing. I don't see how Egypt is any different. Viktor Chernomyrdin said it best, "We hoped for the best, but it turned out like always" I don't see Egypt being exempt from this line of thinking. They have innumerable obstacles to overcome with a citizenry that is now convinced they can change their whole country in three weeks. They'll be facing many disappointments as the weeks and months fly by and their own lives don't seem much different than before. I'll give them a shot, but I'll be wary, very wary.
Edited on February 12, 2011 at 9:21pmJun '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Just for the record, I have no idea why the text of my previous comment turned out that way.
[Ed. Fixed. Not your fault; sorry about that.]
Edited on February 12, 2011 at 9:24pmJan '11
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I'm a C man. When was the last time something like his happened and ended well? China? USSR?
If it was over food and unemployment that the people were protesting, then the form of government does not matter. If the options provided by this thread are accurate, then maybe autocracy is in our best interest since we have an inside track with their military. But since everyone on the outside is going to clamor for democracy for a people that know nothing of liberty and potentially embrace violent Islam, we just might have to deal with a terror state backed by the will of its people.
I really hope CIA has this under control.
Nov '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Before you can believe there is a yearning for democracy in Egypt you have to get around these results from the recent Pew Research poll highlighted in the Investors Business Daily yesterday:
• 49% of Egyptians say Islam plays only a "small role" in public affairs under President Hosni Mubarak, while 95% prefer the religion play a "large role in politics."• 84% favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim faith.• 82% support stoning adulterers.• 77% think thieves should have their hands cut off.• 54% support a law segregating women from men in the workplace.• 54% believe suicide bombings that kill civilians can be justified.• Nearly half support the terrorist group Hamas.• 30% have a favorable opinion of Hezbollah.• 20% maintain positive views of al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden.• 82% of Egyptians dislike the U.S. — the highest unfavorable rating among the 18 Muslim nations Pew surveyed.
How do you conclude that these people want democracy?
Edited on February 12, 2011 at 9:27pmNov '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Not sure what you're worried about. It looks normal to me.
I can't decide whether I'm with you, at B-, or closer to C. But since I know nothing direct about this situation, my answer probably depends almost exclusively on the opinions of the person whose comments I have read most recently. Fullfrontal makes a good point about the lack of precedents for a good outcome.
Aug '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Unfortunately, I am at the low end of (B), leaning towards (C). How I wish to be an (A)!
Jun '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
For a a few minutes after a I posted it, half my text was in huge font. As mentioned below that comment now, the editor has fixed it.
Lucy Pevensie
Not sure what you're worried about. It looks normal to me.
I can't decide whether I'm with you, at B-, or closer to C. But since I know nothing direct about this situation, my answer probably depends almost exclusively on the opinions of the person whose comments I have read most recently. Fullfrontal makes a good point about the lack of precedents for a good outcome. · Feb 12 at 12:33pm
May '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
TeeJaw : Before you can believe there is a yearning for democracy in Egypt you have to get around these results from the recent Pew Research poll highlighted in the Investors Business Daily yesterday...
How do you conclude that these people want democracy?
Based on this and other things I've read, a successful democracy in Egypt would not be good news. Not only would democracy empower a corrupt culture to terrorize its own people and others, but it would provide the means for the Muslim Brotherhood to gradually seize power as liberals have done in our society.
There's a reason we don't allow felons to vote.
Jul '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
Even leaving aside the potential consequences for American interests, put me down for "C" Peter.
It doesn't require a worse dictator (Islamist or otherwise) seizing power for things to become much, much worse for huge swathes of the Egyptian people.
The Brotherhood doesn't have to take over, it just needs legitimacy. Once it has that, it will use populism to subvert liberalism. Egypt probably won't pass over the top sexist laws similar to, say, Iran's. All the MB has to do is undermine women's, Christians', and others' rights one small, popular step at a time. It seems to me that this type of incrementalism is something at which the MB excels.
Since the 1953 passage of compulsory education many more Egyptians can read. Even so, there's a massive literacy gap between men & women in Egypt. So, against a government drive for relatively educated women, the prevailing culture has been pushing back. Populism just doesn't bode well for Egyptian women or minority groups.
Edited on February 12, 2011 at 10:07pmNov '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I discussed this very issue today with friends.
We recognized that there was ample warrant for pessimism about what comes next, given the demographic facts on the ground and historical precedents in analogous scenarios.
Still, we also strongly felt it would be--and we struggled for the right words to express it--somehow churlish, cynical, and life-denying--not to empathically share in Egyptians' current optimism, even if subsequent developments prove it to have been naive and short-sighted.
One great evil has now been eliminated. True, its elimination may yet spawn other evils, greater still. But you would have to heart of stone not to hope, reason be damned, that matters may turn out well--that those people celebrating in the streets are channelling something noble and worthy about the human spirit--a something that might just prove antithetical to the imposition of an Islamofascistic ideology.
It's not that I'm not expecting the worst. I appreciate the sobering realities. But paradoxically I find myself striving to believe it won't happen--almost as a sort of moral imperative.
After all, if faith and hope aren't applicable here, at this transformative moment, then where are they applicable?
Oct '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
I don't hold out much hope for leaderless revolutions -- democratic or otherwise.
Nov '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
In sum, my heart tends towards A, my head towards C. So I guess it's B, if you average across apples and oranges.
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
You and me both, Aodhan, you and me both.
Dec '10
Re: Egypt: The Multiple Choice Quiz
It took Egypt 57 years to see the end of a regime set in place by a military coup against King Farouk. Give them some time to sort out democracy.
After all, it took the newly-born United States of America 13 years to move from the Declaration of Independence to a workable Constitution -- and the people of the new nation were already used to electing representative governments of their own.
Edited on February 12, 2011 at 10:59pm