Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
In the first round of the Egyptian presidential election, which took place last week, the two top vote getters were Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister (pictured to the left), and the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi (pictured on the right). (Morsi, incidentally, is an engineer trained in the United States. His experience of this country seems to have turned him against us.)
These two candidates, both of whom received very nearly 25 percent of the ballots, will now proceed to a second and final round of voting, which will take place on June 16 and 17.
Mubarak's last prime minister or the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood. What a miserable choice--or so I thought until reading Fouad Ajami's piece in today's Wall Street Journal. Even if the Muslim Brotherhood elects its man, Fouad argues, there will be a limit to how much damage he can do:
In the vision of the Islamists, Egypt would be ruled by Shariah law and the secularists reined in. This cannot be sustained on Egyptian soil. Theocracies like Iran, or Saudi Arabia for that matter, rest on oil wealth, on the margin such wealth allows the rulers to mold the society. In Egypt, so dependent on foreign aid, remittances, the revenues of tourism and the kindness of strangers, a religious utopia would be undone.
Egypt may grow worse, in other words, but only by so much.
Well, that's some comfort, anyway.
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Jun '10
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
My take is that the Egyptian military is still the power behind the throne. Whichever man is elected, he'll still have to defer to the generals. This works to the US advantage in two ways:
1. The military relationship between the US and Egypt is more valuable than the few billions we give them in foreign aid. The Egyptian military is dependent on the US for parts, maintenance, and technical support. That's a lot of leverage.
2. The Egyptian generals are under no illusions about Israeli military might. The Egyptian people believe the 1973 Yom Kippur War was a victory. The generals know otherwise, and they are not spoiling for another fight.
I expect a military strongman will take over as soon as conditions allow. The experiment in Egyptian democracy will be a rather ephemeral affair. Tyranny is the norm; expect more of the same.
Edited on May 27, 2012 at 11:45amApr '11
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
Egypt is worse than it looks.
State run Egypt is almost out financial reserves "Egypt will run out of cash to buy food. Its cash reserves have fallen by two-thirds since Hosni Mubarak was ousted and barely cover two months’ worth of imports. That’s not good for a country that imports half its caloric consumption. "
Egypt was looking to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for loans but on May 20th "The procedures for securing a US$3.2 billion loan from the IMF will stop due to concerns of fund officials about social and political discord over the loan, ( Eyyptian) Finance Minister Momtaz al-Saeed said. IMF officials worry about a repeat of the Greek experience"
Meanwhile, Saudi-Egyptian relations are strained as "There are those who want to emphasize Egypt’s interest in continuing its rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, and there are those who say that Egypt’s interest lie in moving away from Saudi Arabia and allying with a theocratic regime like that of Iran."
Egypt ranks 16th in public debt % of GDP (about 90%) with few exports and huge imports of food and energy.
Tourism, it's cash cow, is at a standstill.
Jul '10
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
In 1958, one could draw solace from the fact that Cuba, 90 miles from our shores with a friendly government, strong commerce ties, and a thriving tourist industry would be friend and trading partner forever. It was just the natural order of things. Heck, any reasonable analysis applying a materialist dialectic would brook no other outcome.
Let not your heart be untroubled.
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
Sisyphus: In 1958, one could draw solace from the fact that Cuba, 90 miles from our shores with a friendly government, strong commerce ties, and a thriving tourist industry would be friend and trading partner forever. It was just the natural order of things. Heck, any reasonable analysis applying a materialist dialectic would brook no other outcome.
Let not your heart be untroubled. · 33 minutes ago
You make an alarmingly good point--alarmingly good.
May '12
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
It's already pretty bad and set to get much worse.
The Muslim Brotherhood and the hardline Salafi Islamist parties(like Al-Nour) already control 356 out of the 508 seats(70%) in the People's Assembly(lower house) and 150 out of 180 seats(83%) of the Shura Council(upper house) with another 90 appointed seats to be determined by the next president. If Morsi is elected who exactly in the Egyptian government is going to limit a Islamist president with the backing of a parliament dominated by Islamists?
The Supreme Constitutional Council of Egypt? The Muslim Brotherhood already has them in their sights. The military(SCAF)? As Paules pointed out, the military is still the dominant force in Egyptian politics. However, I'm not convinced this state of affairs will last very much longer.
Feb '11
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
Fouad Ajami and happy-talk nonsense are rather synonymous. Iraq is a prime example.
It is not Egypt that is dependent upon the bribery of foreign aid and tourism, but a fairly small percent of the Egyptian population. It should be easy for the Muslim Brotherhood to direct the hatred of the masses onto them. Some will defect, some will flee, and some will die. It is how politics works in most of the rest of the world.
Feb '11
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
~Paules: My take is that the Egyptian military is still the power behind the throne. Whichever man is elected, he'll still have to defer to the generals. This works to the US advantage in two ways:
1. The military relationship between the US and Egypt is more valuable than the few billions we give them in foreign aid. The Egyptian military is dependent on the US for parts, maintenance, and technical support. That's a lot of leverage.
I expect a military strongman will take over as soon as conditions allow. The experiment in Egyptian democracy will be a rather ephemeral affair. Tyranny is the norm; expect more of the same. · May 27 at 2:44am
Edited on May 27 at 2:45am
The military is the power behind the throne. But there is a small officer corps dependent on US money and then everybody else. Remember it was Islamists within the military that killed Sadat. The military will be the first place the Muslim Brotherhood purges bringing up a new Islamist officer corps. It will be very similar to what has happened in Pakistan.
Jul '10
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
Hang On: Fouad Ajami and happy-talk nonsense are rather synonymous. Iraq is a prime example.
It is not Egypt that is dependent upon the bribery of foreign aid and tourism, but a fairly small percent of the Egyptian population. It should be easy for the Muslim Brotherhood to direct the hatred of the masses onto them. Some will defect, some will flee, and some will die. It is how politics works in most of the rest of the world. · 5 hours ago
Actually, that foreign aid and tourism pays for the imported food that prevents mass starvation. Farming practices in Egypt are incompetent by modern standards, and yield a fraction of what the land could support. And, yes, the attempts have been made to convince the locals to modernize their farming practices. When a man refuses to learn to fish, leave him to his fate.
May '12
Re: Egypt: Not as Bad as it Looks
I really, really, really want to be an optimist about Egypt but....well it looks like it just got worse;