Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
This is is an alarming news story on the "republican pact" that will serve as the basis for the new Tunisian constitution. According to the report, the normalization of relations with Israel will be banned and support for the Palestinian cause will be mandated in the new constitution.
This is not a promising sign. It is unfortunately not the only one.
It is still early, but it seems to me that the first fruits of the recent upheavals in the Middle East do not provide grounds for optimism regarding the future of good government in that region. There is civil war in both Libya and Syria. Even if Gadaffi and Assad fall, I have seen nothing to indicate that the situation in either nation will improve as a result. I cannot find evidence that the current tyrannies will be replaced with regimes that will not tyrannize over at least a significant portion of the populace.There is also little reason to think that the current chaos will produce a situation more favorable to the US and our allies like Israel.
Senators Rubio, McCain, and Lieberman do not wish us to treat Assad as the legitimate ruler of Syria. Who should we treat with then? The Senators have nothing concrete to say on that subject. Senator Rubio says that we should be on the side of the Syrian people. But it should be obvious that some of the Syrian people are for, not against, the regime. This seems clear from the fact that significant segments of the security services are willing to kill their fellow Syrians to keep the Assads in power.
Here is a report about the concerns among Syrian minority groups over what regime change may bring. Of course this does not mean that these groups support Assad. But it does make one wonder about what "regime change" might mean in Syria.
A leader of the largest Egyptian secular party (the Wafd) tells us that the Holocaust is a lie, the 9/11 attacks were committed by Americans, and for good measure throws in the assertion that Anne Frank's diaries were faked. The Wafd claims to be secular and nationalist, but it will be running with the Muslim Brotherhood in the September election.
Our foreign policy in the Middle East is in sorry shape. On the one hand we have weak rhetoric and vague pronouncements from the Obama administration. For example, the State Department position on Syria seems to be "Assad must reform or leave." The history of the Assad regime is one of repression and mass murder. Why would anyone suppose the Assads are capable of reform? And what if he leaves?
On the other hand, we have strong but vague and abstract rhetoric from Senators Rubio, Lieberman, and McCain. They do not believe Assad will reform, and the weight of evidence is definitely on their side on that issue. But they only offer vague bromides about the desire for freedom and targeted sanctions. The unambiguous proponents of regime change in Syria, like the Obama administration, do not address what regime change would actually mean for Syria or America.
We do not see clear, coherent thinking about the concrete situation or what should be done in either case. There is no analysis of the respective regimes or ways of life, and we should apparently be chiefly concerned with the welfare of other peoples and not our own rights and interests. Senator Rubio is positively disturbed at the idea that US foreign policy might be seen as pursuing our strategic interests in the region.
But how else can we explain the lack of US concern for regime change in despotisms such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia aside from some conception, correct or incorrect, of US interest? The Senator and the Obama administration do not say. I suspect this is because they only think in abstractions. This is the root of a very real problem.
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Jul '10
Re: Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
Wars should have consequences. Israel has fought 4 wars, each started by their enemy, the arabs. In all the effects of the war, Israeli capture of holdings of their enemy, have been effectively reversed by the West. Hard to expect the US to have any logical and effective foreign policy when it can't seem to understand wars and their results.
Jul '10
Re: Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
Initially, I had some small hope that Tunisia, with its relatively educated, relatively secular populace might emerge into some sort of sane, stable political state.
I never once held out such illusions with regard to Egypt, Libya, Yemen or Syria.
Dictators in the Muslim world are like the valves in a sewer system. Remove the valve and what you'll get is a very unpleasant flood, indeed.
Edited on Jul 7, 2011 at 3:28pmJul '10
Re: Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
As Jimmy Carter was piling pressure on the Shah of Iran, the Shah warned that the evil he held at bay made his own excesses seem Disneyesque. President Carter was thanked for his role in bringing down the Shah with a hostage taking by regime militants claiming to be students at the American Embassy in Tehran. (You will hear that this is what ended his Presidency, it was not.) Jimmy Carter let it be known that he would limit his travel in solidarity with the hostages, the so-called Rose Garden policy. (The Presidency as hostage by proxy. Only a very special genius could manage to arrive at such a position. We can only assume it barely edged out holding his breath until he turned blue. This is where he gave Ronald Reagan the Presidency.)
Obama is thinking legacy. How could he possibly, in a million years, have a greater impact than his hero, Carter?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you, Arab Spring.
Jan '11
Re: Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
The only reasons we give a damn about this armpit of the world is oil and Isreal. I always thought Bush made a real mistake in the aftermath of 9/11 in not really opening up domestic drilling - when he didn't, I think these maniacs knew there would never really be any consequences (the loss of their only true source of wealth) to their actions. We get another reliable, inexpensive source of fuel for our transportation fleet and these nutjobs go back to being sand farmers.
There seems to be some promise in the diesel/algea bio-fuels. If the market points to a greater role for electric vehicles - we'd better start re-building our nuclear industry. Tar sands - sure, go for it. Breaking the backs of these maniacs in the mideast is job number one. Once they don't hold the world hostage for fuel oils, the situation for Isreal becomes a whole lot easier.
Jul '10
Re: Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
While I would agree that oil is about the only thing that area produces of any value (not including the numerous inventive ideas from Israel), PART of our problem with oil is that we continue to discuss it as a commodity, when in fact it has become an erzats currency, and its current value is a direct response to the poor prospects for the dollar due to our current and past governmental excesses. There is no shortage of crude, even if it would be nice to have our own and not send all that cash out of the country. But the cost of oil will not "improve" until we get our fiscal house in order. So those misanthropes there will continue to collect large sums of cash with which to create havoc around the world.
Re: Early Fruits of the Arab Spring
It would indeed be helpful if we thought of war in terms of victory; of course we need to define what victory means. Our policymakers have refused to do that for a very long time.
The vague abstractions peddled by the Obama administration and Republican enthusiasts for regime change is inimical to clear thinking about war, diplomacy, and economics. Actually it is inimical to coherent thought simply!