Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Now I know Ricochet was not designed to -- what was it someone said Monday? --"examine the entrails" (I just loved that phrase) of everything Bill Clinton does. But he has been capering a'plenty of late, calling Mitt Romney's business credentials "sterling" and urging the president to extend the Bush tax cuts for another year, all within the last week or so. Together or separately, each was enough of a surprise to turn a lot of heads.
But I'm not among those who think WJC is trying to upend Obama or even set the table for his wife to run in 2016. Nor is what he said and did an accident.
No, the Big Dog (as his advisors often described him) is up to something else, I'm betting. And I think its something like this: Clinton, starting in the 2010 campaign, and then again last fall, has never really agreed with the WH strategy of how to run political campaigns. The Obama team wants to look back, argue the case about what happened and what might have been and believes that will turn the tide.
Clinton, by instinct and experience, thinks this approach is a loser. (Nancy Gibbs and I covered a lot of the backstory of the 2008-2010 Obama/Clinton grudge match in our chapter on 42 and 44, which you can find here.)
So now, what he is doing by saying, in effect, lets set Mitt's record at Bain aside; and by saying, lets let the Bush tax cuts go another year; is try and shift the debate -- and shift the Obama team's feel for it -- out of the rear view mirror and toward something that looks more straight ahead. He's trying to get them to abandon what he thinks is a losing approach and instead lay out a plan, and talk about the future. That's what Clinton was all about when he ran.
He must be having trouble convincing David Axelrod and David Plouffe of this. Not to mention the president himself. Because he is taking his strategy to the street. Or at least the airwaves. As the parenting gurus like to say, he's....modeling.
But that's just my hunch. What do you think?
- Comment (19)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
Comments:
May '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
What do I think? I think the only thing Bill Clinton thinks about is Bill Clinton.
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
You lay out a persuasive theory, Mike. It makes a lot more sense than the alternatives. Then again, as EJHill mentions above, what's in it for Clinton besides a lot of hard, unappreciated work?
Jul '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Exactly. I can't believe that Clinton is trying to help the Obama campaign whether they like it or not. This is about wanting Hillary (and, more to the point, himself) to be positioned to run for President.
Clinton is an expert politician - he figures it will be easier for Hillary to run in 2016 against Mitt Romney than to follow a second, and probably disastrous, second Obama term.
Jun '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
I think Hillary wants to run against an incumbent Republican in 2016. We're probably so far in the hole that no President is going to be popular four years from now. We're either going to be asked to suffer voluntarily, for a definite purpose, or wait and let the debt mountain fall on us, and achieve maximum suffering. Running against an incumbent in 2016 is better for Hillary (and Bill) than having a wide-open field, maybe even with Biden stepping on her carefully-crafted message. That's no good.
Jul '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Bill Clinton is still tremendously scarred that his place in history has a certain stain on it. He is outlining something to make himself look like a sage when the book on Obama's innumerable failures ( re-election too?) is written.
The title you chose was the big Fleetwood Mac song from Clinton's inauguration. If they played today for Obama today it would be "The Chain".
At least the Big Dog is getting the liberal press to cover something negative about our fearless leader which is highly unusual for the progressive ideologues who dominate your former industry.
Edited on June 7, 2012 at 10:26pmNov '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
My theory: Clinton knows how to count by fours. He figures that--because the next four years are going to be such a national disaster economically and otherwise--whichever party wins in 2012 will lose in 2016.
If Obama is in office two terms, in 2016 he and the Dems will get all the blame for the ongoing national nightmare (the Blame Bush strategy can't work that long), and the backlash might put the Dems out of power for the following decade.
However, if Obama loses to Romney, much of the blame for the sorry state of things in 2016 will fall on Romney and the GOP--and Hillary will be in a strong position to challenge Romney in 2016.
An interesting twist: Hillary and Obama could face each other again in the 2016 Dem primary. (And Hillary would clean his clock!)
Bill Clinton will do whatever is necessary to prevent Obama's reelection.
(Thanks and props to you and Ms. Gibbs for braving the Ricochet gauntlet.)
Edited on June 7, 2012 at 10:51pmJun '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Clinton would say, big problems need the Big Dog:
Mar '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
I'm convinced that the Dem insiders think Obama is killing the party. They believe that, to save the party, Obama needs to A) Change course drastically or B) get out of the way. So they go to Bill and say "Help us!"
Clinton's comments drive a wedge that forces either A or B. If A, then he is the political genius that saved Obama and the party. If B, he (potentially) is the first First Gentleman.
So put me down as agreeing with all of you.
May '12
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
I think Bubba is worried about his place and power within the Democratic Party and not so much about setting up Hillary for 2016. Obama replaced him as the darling in 2008 in addition to taking the Clinton machine headon. However, if Obama loses, theoretically Clinton retakes the helm as the king.
That being said, I think you have an interesting theory, and it may be that Bubba is setting himself up for a win-win proposition in November. If Obama changes course and follows Clinton's strategy, then Clinton, based on how Obama's campaign looks now, would be the savior. If Obama stays the course and/or continues to rebuke Clinton and loses, Clinton can say "I told you so" and regains power because Dems will distance themselves from Obama because, well, nobody likes a loser.
May '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Pookie: I think Bubba is worried about his place and power within the Democratic Party and not so much about setting up Hillary for 2016. Obama replaced him as the darling in 2008 in addition to taking the Clinton machine headon. However, if Obama loses, theoretically Clinton retakes the helm as the king.
That being said, I think you have an interesting theory, and it may be that Bubba is setting himself up for a win-win proposition in November. If Obama changes course and follows Clinton's strategy, then Clinton, based on how Obama's campaign looks now, would be the savior. If Obama stays the course and/or continues to rebuke Clinton and loses, Clinton can say "I told you so" and regains power because Dems will distance themselves from Obama because, well, nobody likes a loser. · 30 minutes ago
and he remains the only two-term Democrat president since FDR...
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
This is all really interesting. I think HRC will run in 2016 no matter what happens. As the author of a book about the Club, my fondest dream is an intra-Club smackdown in four years: a Bush (Jeb) vs a Clinton (Hillary.) Sign me up for that show. It couldn't be more greek. And I think Pookie is right that Clinton may be laying the predicate for failure just a little bit. But I don't think he is rooting for Obama to lose, whatever their history as rivals in the Democratic pantheon...
Feb '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
"As the author of a book about the Club, my fondest dream is an intra-Club smackdown in four years: a Bush (Jeb) vs a Clinton (Hillary.) Sign me up for that show. It couldn't be more greek. "
The descendents of Gaia and Uranus. Appropriate. And the part I would like is where the younger gods kill them both.
Edited on June 7, 2012 at 11:50pmAug '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Here's the thing: an Obama loss in 2012 means that whenever Clinton runs... there will be Obama, looking for another 4 years. He is young enough, popular enough, and narcissistic enough to believe he is a viable candidate for every election until he dies.
A media narrative that "it wasn't Obama's fault" will be crafted 30 seconds after he concedes. Grover Cleveland will be trotted out as precedent for non-continuous terms. He never lost the love of his base, who will be chanting "FOUR MORE YEARS!" every time he appears at an event.
HRC may be a lock for the 2016 campaign... but so is BHO, if a Romney Administration fumbles the ball on the economy. (Or if a popular entitlement program gets reformed on his watch.) And neither Clinton wants a repeat of that primary.
I think Bill Clinton badly wants BHO to run out his last legally available term, then either:
Keeping Biden for the campaign makes sense--no admission of error. Afterwards, he's useless.
May '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Hillary will be 68 in 2016. She's no spring chicken. (Bill either for that matter.) The Dems will have other newer, shinier candidates by then. I predict no Hillary run in 2016.
Bill is doing the same thing Jimmy Carter did (does). Still stirring up things to hear his own voice. The media uses Bill the same way they use pictures of a building on fire...to sell themselves. Most people COULDN'T care less about Bill. (OK Funeral Guy?)
Apr '12
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Clinton is interesting to have on talk shows as he knows politics so well and shares a large part of what most leaders would not reveal. What other political leaders have commented closely in another President's campaign? He is the inside the Board room guy coming outside and leaking the information better left unsaid. Since you mention a dog analogy, Clinton is p.....ng on the bush.
Mar '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
I hesitate to give Mr Clinton such lofty motives, but is it just possible that he is trying to prevent the Democratic Party being turned into the New Party?
Not that I am suggesting that Mr Obama is a Socialist or Marxist ;-)
Edited on June 8, 2012 at 1:38amMar '11
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
David, he's trying to keep it from becoming the Dead Party.
May '10
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Not gonna happen...voters are done with both families. It will be interesting to see who comes off the bench for both parties in 2020 after 8 years of Romney. More likely to see Rubio vs. Cuomo...
Apr '12
Re: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
I don't think anyone but Bill knows for sure. I doubt it has to do with Hillary. It might have to do with trying to save the Democratic Party. It may have something to do with a poke in the eye to someone who called him a racist. I also doubt it has anything to do with Bill's having a touch of dementia after the heart problems, although it could be the case.
Fantasy: "I have tried to work well with President Obama and his campaign staff. I have given them my best advice and been ignored. In these last few weeks, I have learned the truth of one of my predecessor's words, 'I did not leave the Democratic Party. It left me.' As such, I hereby announce withdrawal of support for President Obama and am switching support to a man who I think better represents what I would do were I in office, Governor Mitt Romney."
Now, tell the truth, did that make you giggle a little?