Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"[The] poll gods are wrong. Not only can Obama be reelected, but he is the favorite right now," writes Roger Simon in a dispiriting op-ed over at Politico. He continues,
Obama has one huge plus going for him. It’s called the Republican field.
And Republican voters agree with me. Because if Obama were really so weak a candidate, why would Republicans keep looking for a messiah to save them?
One day it is Michele Bachmann. Then she poops out, and it is Rick Perry. Then he disappoints, and the party turns, in desperation, to Mitt Romney. Then the party decides it is not that desperate and turns to — I kid thee not — Herman Cain.
...So what do I make of Cain’s (meaningless) rise in the (meaningless) polls?
It is meaningless. And a sign of how badly Republicans are still floundering in their search for a candidate. Cain is a genial, harmless dodo who thinks running a country is just like running a business. But it isn’t....
Cain could never win the GOP nomination — yes, race raises its ugly head — and even if he did, he could never win 270 electoral votes to beat Barack Obama....
So who could get to 270? Romney could. Conceivably. And Perry. Conceivably. True, Perry is damaged goods today, but he is raising oodles of money...
But who else could get to 270? Obama could, Simon argues. Yes, he's heading up an awful economy, and has involved us in more foreign entanglements than we started out with, but he has a few key things going for him. "He is a heck of a stump speaker and a pretty good debater, and he has an experienced campaign staff," writes Simon. Add to that his campaign war chest, and Obama is not so much the underdog that even he portrays himself to be.
It's gloomy, gray, and rainy here in San Francisco. And the idea that the Wall Street occupiers could be representative of a much larger, vulnerable segment of Americans who are begging for the government to come bail them out, has me in a funk. Add to that a melancholy iTunes playlist, and Roger Simon's take on our dire electoral situation, and I've got enough pessimism to last me the whole day.
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Comments:
Jun '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Stuart Creque
michael kelley: "....a genial, harmless dodo?"
What?
I think Mr. Cain has a remarkable resume and that he comes across as a person with conviction.
Married to the same woman for 43 years. His mother was a cleaner, his father a chauffeur. A degree in Math and a Masters in Computer Science plus 40 years of hard core management and business experience. His is very much an American story.
No silver spoon here. Were he my opponent, I would not take him lightly. · Oct 6 at 12:37pm
Don't forget that he served on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, ultimately rising to the position of Chairman. Between Roger Simon and Herman Cain, it's pretty clear who's the bumbling dodo. · Oct 6 at 12:56pm
Stuart, I was going to mention that but I didn't want to seem like a racist.
Dec '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Republicans aren't looking for a "messiah" because they think it will take a perfect candidate to unseat Obama. They're simply trying to make the most of a rare opportunity. Obama is incredibly vulnerable. He has writ liberal policies large and Americans are skeptical of them to a degree we haven't seen in a generation. Republicans would gladly replace Obama with any remotely reasonable alternative -- and the current slate offers several. But this is a game-changing moment, and Republicans are right to seek out a real game-changer to make the most of it. Democrats squandered their moment in 2008 by sending a second-stringer to the People's House. Republicans are simply hoping to avoid the same mistake.
May '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Stuart Creque What Republican primary voters are looking for is a messiah to save them from Romney. Aside from the big chunk of Republican voters who like Romney, there's a big (maybe bigger) chunk who want someone less prone to flip-flopping, less sympathetic to a technocratic approach to "making government work," and more committed to rolling government back and "making the Federal government as inconsequential in your daily life as possible."
If no such messiah successfully wrests the nomination from the Romney juggernaut, then Romney will easily defeat Obama. But if Perry or Cain (or, on an outside chance, Bachmann) becomes the nominee, he (or she) will also easily defeat Obama.
(I note that a lot of people who support Occupy Wall Street are dismissive of Obama as a crypto-Republican!) · Oct 6 at 12:14pm
Oh Stuart, I love what you write!
Jan '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
I was most excited at the prospect of a Paul Ryan run (still may happen, he's young). I am happy to support Herman Cain. I was listening to a podcast interview with him while at work - I find myself always smiling when listening to him. I think he's a good man and an uplifting & wise old soul.
And yes, God forbid, I'll vote for Romney if it comes to that but I sure prefer not to.
Apr '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"Politico signaled that it was moving away from purely political reporting and toward more substantial coverage of policy when they hired former New York Times reporter David Cloud this past January as their chief foreign policy writer. Cloud resigned in July, however, citing his displeasure with the frantic pace of the Politico newsroom and the obsessive need to view every story through the lens of “What does this mean for Obama?”
"Politico, despite its contribution to Barack Obama’s victory last year through its widely disseminated (and revenue-driving) coverage of the character flaws of Sarah Palin and John McCain, is an organization biased toward entrenched special interests through and through."
http://wesleyanargus.com/2009/10/06/how-allbritton%E2%80%99s-politico-debases-american-political-debate/
Oct '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Maybe Simon should read Politico. Oh, wait...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65315.html
Jun '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Viator: "Politico signaled that it was moving away from purely political reporting and toward more substantial coverage of policy when they hired former New York Times reporter David Cloud this past January as their chief foreign policy writer. Cloud resigned in July, however, citing his displeasure with the frantic pace of the Politico newsroom and the obsessive need to view every story through the lens of “What does this mean for Obama?”
"Politico, despite its contribution to Barack Obama’s victory last year through its widely disseminated (and revenue-driving) coverage of the character flaws of Sarah Palin and John McCain, is an organization biased toward entrenched special interests through and through."
http://wesleyanargus.com/2009/10/06/how-allbritton%E2%80%99s-politico-debases-american-political-debate/ · Oct 6 at 1:34pm
Yes, we had such high hopes for Politico to begin with, didn't we? It's very sad to watch. Why does this keep happening to news organizations? The O'Sullivan's First Law comes to mind:
"All organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing."
Aug '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Since when do we let Democrat-party mouthpieces like Politico nominate Republican candidates? If Politico says it's Romney, that suggests to me that our nominee should be anyone but.
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
dittoheadadt: Maybe Simon should read Politico. Oh, wait...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65315.html · Oct 6 at 1:45pm
If the polls don't say what you want them to say, just write them off as meaningless. We'll dub that the "Simon Ostrich Strategy."
Jul '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Welcome to the not Romney bandwagon!
Nov '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Aug '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Sisyphus
Welcome to the not Romney bandwagon! · Oct 6 at 2:18pm
Yee-Haa I knew there were more of us. I will heartily vote Not-Romney and then I will happily vote Not-Obama.
But I support Herman Cain right now!
Aug '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Elizabeth Dunn
I wish I could take argument with this, Larry, but I cannot.
I will.
Democrats don't want him to campaign for them.
His speeches no longer top the charts.
He is trailing behind an Unknown Republican by 6 points!
His 'son of stimulus' cannot find any Democratic sponsor.
Harry Reid just activated the Republican "constitutional option" otherwise known as the "Nuclear Option" - thereby lowering the threshold for the next use - meaning the new Repub senate in 2012 will be able to do the same thing.
Does anyone believe that anything Pres Obama does in the next year will stop the 'Regime Uncertainty' and usher in enough job growth to save him? I didn't think so.
I remember a quote from the Cold War, but I lack the attribution - maybe Peter can help.
"If we have an arms control agreement, the Russians will cheat. If we have an arms race, we will win" - unk General.
Having an arms race pitted the source of our conflict (our economies) against each other and the best won.
This election is about the scope of Govt. May the best philosophy win.
May '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
The man is so incompetent that he doesn't even lie well anymore; and the reporters are starting to figure it out. We are simply having the general election in our primary. We will let Obama be on the ballot in November so that he can spend his billion dollars and thus provide the only real stimulus his presidency has ever sponsored.
Diane, you need to get out of San Francisco and get thee to the Midwest for a good Tea Party rally.
Edited on October 7, 2011 at 2:38amOct '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Instugator
Sisyphus
Welcome to the not Romney bandwagon! · Oct 6 at 2:18pm
Yee-Haa I knew there were more of us. I will heartily vote Not-Romney and then I will happily vote Not-Obama.
But I support Herman Cain right now! · Oct 6 at 5:06pm
Count me in on the bandwagon! Why should Republicans nominate someone (Romney) who couldn't even get re-elected in his own state and signed into law the abomination known as Romneycare? No thanks, we can do better.
Nov '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Freeven
Republicans aren't looking for a "messiah" because they think it will take a perfect candidate to unseat Obama. They're simply trying to make the most of a rare opportunity. Obama is incredibly vulnerable. He has writ liberal policies large and Americans are skeptical of them to a degree we haven't seen in a generation. Republicans would gladly replace Obama with any remotely reasonable alternative -- and the current slate offers several. But this is a game-changing moment, and Republicans are right to seek out a real game-changer to make the most of it. Democrats squandered their moment in 2008 by sending a second-stringer to the People's House. Republicans are simply hoping to avoid the same mistake. · Oct 6 at 1:06pm
Amen.
Jul '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Of course there's an excellent chance that Barry will win.
The polls aren't meaningless, but they hardly guarantee victory.
I give you Michigan in 2006.
Jenny Granholm, a lawyerly, politically clever, phony-as-the-day-is-long, incumbent governor (aka Obama in a dress) crushed Dick Devoss 56-42.
This happened while MI's unemployment was (and had been for awhile) amongst the highest in the nation. This happened while Granholm had upset large chunks of the left (via supposed half measures, & furloughs for government employees) and completely alienated everyone on the right (via idiotic "green" initiatives, & useless crony economic projects). This happened while she polled at 59% job disapproval in the month she won re-election.
I know, I know, Michigan is a particularly blue, particularly stupid state... but it's really only a few points bluer than America at-large. Conservatives can win statewide here. But we didn't in ought six. Michigan is dramatically worse off as a result.
Obama can win, even if no one likes him. If he can successfully position himself as the indies least worst choice he probably wins.
Winners take the competition seriously. That's why they win.
Edited on October 7, 2011 at 5:12amOct '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
If the nominee is Romney, then it's a referendum on Obama.
If the nominee is either Perry or Cain, then this election will be a referendum on the GOP candidate.
Dec '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"My biggest frustration is that the Romney campaign is remiss in the marketing of his greatest declaration de principe: "I know how to fix things. This is what I do." (As quoted from a 2008 primary appearance in Michigan and most recently, a stump speech in Florida)." My fear is that he would "fix things" the same way Col. Nicolson fixed the Bridge on the River Kwai: by doing a splendid job of expanding the infrastructure of bigger and more burdensome government. We need someone who's also good at knowing what to dismantle and discard rather than fix.