Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"[The] poll gods are wrong. Not only can Obama be reelected, but he is the favorite right now," writes Roger Simon in a dispiriting op-ed over at Politico. He continues,
Obama has one huge plus going for him. It’s called the Republican field.
And Republican voters agree with me. Because if Obama were really so weak a candidate, why would Republicans keep looking for a messiah to save them?
One day it is Michele Bachmann. Then she poops out, and it is Rick Perry. Then he disappoints, and the party turns, in desperation, to Mitt Romney. Then the party decides it is not that desperate and turns to — I kid thee not — Herman Cain.
...So what do I make of Cain’s (meaningless) rise in the (meaningless) polls?
It is meaningless. And a sign of how badly Republicans are still floundering in their search for a candidate. Cain is a genial, harmless dodo who thinks running a country is just like running a business. But it isn’t....
Cain could never win the GOP nomination — yes, race raises its ugly head — and even if he did, he could never win 270 electoral votes to beat Barack Obama....
So who could get to 270? Romney could. Conceivably. And Perry. Conceivably. True, Perry is damaged goods today, but he is raising oodles of money...
But who else could get to 270? Obama could, Simon argues. Yes, he's heading up an awful economy, and has involved us in more foreign entanglements than we started out with, but he has a few key things going for him. "He is a heck of a stump speaker and a pretty good debater, and he has an experienced campaign staff," writes Simon. Add to that his campaign war chest, and Obama is not so much the underdog that even he portrays himself to be.
It's gloomy, gray, and rainy here in San Francisco. And the idea that the Wall Street occupiers could be representative of a much larger, vulnerable segment of Americans who are begging for the government to come bail them out, has me in a funk. Add to that a melancholy iTunes playlist, and Roger Simon's take on our dire electoral situation, and I've got enough pessimism to last me the whole day.