Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"[The] poll gods are wrong. Not only can Obama be reelected, but he is the favorite right now," writes Roger Simon in a dispiriting op-ed over at Politico. He continues,
Obama has one huge plus going for him. It’s called the Republican field.
And Republican voters agree with me. Because if Obama were really so weak a candidate, why would Republicans keep looking for a messiah to save them?
One day it is Michele Bachmann. Then she poops out, and it is Rick Perry. Then he disappoints, and the party turns, in desperation, to Mitt Romney. Then the party decides it is not that desperate and turns to — I kid thee not — Herman Cain.
...So what do I make of Cain’s (meaningless) rise in the (meaningless) polls?
It is meaningless. And a sign of how badly Republicans are still floundering in their search for a candidate. Cain is a genial, harmless dodo who thinks running a country is just like running a business. But it isn’t....
Cain could never win the GOP nomination — yes, race raises its ugly head — and even if he did, he could never win 270 electoral votes to beat Barack Obama....
So who could get to 270? Romney could. Conceivably. And Perry. Conceivably. True, Perry is damaged goods today, but he is raising oodles of money...
But who else could get to 270? Obama could, Simon argues. Yes, he's heading up an awful economy, and has involved us in more foreign entanglements than we started out with, but he has a few key things going for him. "He is a heck of a stump speaker and a pretty good debater, and he has an experienced campaign staff," writes Simon. Add to that his campaign war chest, and Obama is not so much the underdog that even he portrays himself to be.
It's gloomy, gray, and rainy here in San Francisco. And the idea that the Wall Street occupiers could be representative of a much larger, vulnerable segment of Americans who are begging for the government to come bail them out, has me in a funk. Add to that a melancholy iTunes playlist, and Roger Simon's take on our dire electoral situation, and I've got enough pessimism to last me the whole day.
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
That's what they want - convincing visuals. What if all the McCain voters descended on NYC? 59 million would be seven times the population of the city and overwhelm it. It would also represent 59 million losers in the political debate. The hype does not match.
As for your playlist - that's your problem. Take the bull by the horns and fix yourself!
Mar '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Just what we need after Katie's post - an uplifting post!
Sometimes I find Ricochet so depressing... thanks Diane.
Edited on October 6, 2011 at 8:14pmSep '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Two statements that serve to discredit the entire piece. Thanks for your input, Roger.
Apr '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
The lesson I get here is: Never assume anything is a done deal. The presidential election is over a year away, anything can happen. Our nominees can't walk through this as if it's just a matter of deciding who gets to beat Obama, they have to recognize that there's going to be a fight ahead.
Honestly, those of us who eat, drink, and sleep news and blogs are following this like crazy, but I don't know if we're a sampling of the public or not. Once nominations start in earnest, I imagine enthusiasm for candidates will change dramatically.
And Reagan was described as an "amiable dunce." Not to say Cain is Reagan, but since Eisenhower, republican candidates with two exceptions were described as stupid or less-than-intelligent. It's a tiresome argument at this point.
Aug '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
I'm as weary of hearing how Cain can't win as I am of hearing that Romney will be the nominee.
Romney is a stumbling, stuttering, one-termer. Why is he the default?
Mar '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
The fact that they have to insult Cain may mean he has a real chance. Regan was dumb and Bush was dumb to the press. They became president. At this time last election the press loved McCain. He did not become president.
The liberals in the press are reduced to name calling because they have nothing else. While beating Obama is no sure thing at all, I do not think that good speeches can gloss over the fact that the country has a lot of problems and the President has no solutions.
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Bruce in Marin
Two statements that serve to discredit the entire piece. Thanks for your input, Roger. · Oct 6 at 11:01am
In fairness to Simon (and lest you fall into the same confusion I did, Roger Simon of Politico is certainly not the Roger Simon of Pajamas Media), he does go on to explain why he believes that Cain could not win the nomination. While Cain's 9-9-9 plan may appeal to GOP primary voters, Simon argues that it simply wouldn't fly with the majority of general election voters. In particular, the federal sales tax (being added on top of local and state sales taxes) would seem to a whole lot of people like a tremendous burden during a time when so many people are just trying to make ends meet. This strikes me as a valid criticism, even though I personally would prefer Cain's domestic plan to whatever we've got going on now.
Edited on October 6, 2011 at 8:30pmDec '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Diane Ellis, Ed.: "
I almost find the race stuff humorous coming from people who voted for Obama because he's black, per Geraldine Ferraro and a fair amount of evidence. They sure didn't vote for him based on experience and competence, now did they?!
And conservatives are so racist, they won't even vote for Cain despite his executive experience and competence? Piffle. Simon has come to believe his own propaganda. Barring a last minute (Ryan) addition to the field, I say we go all-in for Cain, shall we?
Diane, you don't really believe Obama is a "heck of a stump speaker and a pretty good debater," do you? He's only a heckuva stump speaker if you're one of the mindless converted drones. And his debate performance last time only necessitated no implosions. I relish seeing him off-prompter against Cain. Can't wait!
Edited on October 6, 2011 at 8:32pmRe: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Western Chauvinist
Diane, you don't really believe Obama is a "heck of a stump speaker and a pretty good debater," do you? He's only a heckuva stump speaker if you're one of the mindless converted drones. And his debate performance last time only necessitated no implosions. I relish seeing him off-prompter against Cain. Can't wait! · Oct 6 at 11:29am
No. I can't stand to hear the man speak. He's peevish, condescending, and uses an obnoxious intonation pattern. My ears tune him out. But so many people seem to think that he's a good speaker. Maybe folks have grown as weary hearing him as I have. We can only hope.
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
David Williamson: Just what we need after Katie's post - an uplifting post!
Sometimes I find Ricochet so depressing... thanks Diane. · Oct 6 at 10:56am
Edited on Oct 06 at 11:14 am
Yes, well, I rely on Professor Rahe for all the political optimism around here. It's about time for him to give us a rousing post for why Obama's doomed, how we're sure to recapture the Senate, and all will be well with the country in the end.
Oct '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
What is wrong with this rationale:
Nobody who didn't vote for Obama in 2008 is going to vote for him in 2012, yet loads and loads of people who did vote for him in 2008 are not going to vote for him in 2012.
So how can he possibly win?
Wouldn't it take lots of McCain voters who've died in the past 4 years and lots of nonvoters from 2008 (e.g. illegals, 14-17 yr olds) who will vote for Obama this time, and if so, how realistic is all that??
("Nobody" isn't meant to be literal, but you know what I mean. Are Peggy Noonan and Colin Powell and Chris Buckley, et al, really going to vote for him again?)
Oct '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Honestly, how valuable are Simon's observations?
"Obama is a pretty good debater." Yeah, against John McCain, an absolutely pathetic debater. Good baseline standard, Simon.
"He's a heck of a stump speaker." Really? Even though everyone pretty much has tuned him out for the past umpteenth months as he drones on and on??
The polls are "meaningless"...and Obama is the favorite to win next year. Huh?? The "favorite" based upon what? Polls?? Or "meaningless" polls?
And that "experienced campaign staff" defeated what was arguably the most inept, pathetic opposition campaign ever run...and defeated it by just 53/47 in an environment in which EVERYTHING was in Obama's favor.
Good God, people, who is Roger Simon and why do we even care?
Aug '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"Fight the Power! Fight the Power's that Be!
How?!
By Re-Electing the Power! Re-Electing the Power that Is!"
I bet those Wall Street Bankers are wondering why exactly they gave so much money to Obama in 2008 and why they gave money to Organizing for America.
Apr '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Herman Cain is an interesting man and there is certainly a solid argument that he is the single most accomplished candidate for the job out of either party. But it is hard to shake the notion that the presidency is not an entry level political job and, on that basis alone (meaning we leave aside liberal racism against black conservatives and related issues) there are objectively difficult questions one has to ask about Cain's "electability."
And on the other hand, Romney served one term as governor of Mass. where his signature achievement was to implement the precursor to ObamaCare.
Politico's Roger Simon may be a hack, but that doesn't mean he can't occasionaly make a sound point.
Jun '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Obama will in all probability win reelection. I just don't see anything at this point to indicate otherwise.
Thanks, Diane, for clarifying which Roger Simon this is. The race thing is tiresome so I was wondering why he was saying that stuff. The fact that he's with Politico tells me all I need to know.
Oct '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
R0bert Scott:
Politico's Roger Simon may be a hack, but that doesn't mean he can't occasionaly make a sound point. · Oct 6 at 12:06pm
True...but where's the evidence that his points are sound? His arguments are not arguments at all, or they're ludicrous (good stump speaker, good debater, good campaign staff).
Now that he's a known (and largely failed) quantity, I don't see how O wins next year, regardless of what Simon says.
Dec '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Diane Ellis, Ed.:
Poor Roger Simon (whoever he is). He thinks the Republican primary voters are looking for a messiah to save them from Obama. He doesn't realize that ANY Republican challenger is set to beat Obama in the general election.
What Republican primary voters are looking for is a messiah to save them from Romney. Aside from the big chunk of Republican voters who like Romney, there's a big (maybe bigger) chunk who want someone less prone to flip-flopping, less sympathetic to a technocratic approach to "making government work," and more committed to rolling government back and "making the Federal government as inconsequential in your daily life as possible."
If no such messiah successfully wrests the nomination from the Romney juggernaut, then Romney will easily defeat Obama. But if Perry or Cain (or, on an outside chance, Bachmann) becomes the nominee, he (or she) will also easily defeat Obama.
(I note that a lot of people who support Occupy Wall Street are dismissive of Obama as a crypto-Republican!)
Jun '11
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
"....a genial, harmless dodo?"
What?
I think Mr. Cain has a remarkable resume and that he comes across as a person with conviction.
Married to the same woman for 43 years. His mother was a cleaner, his father a chauffeur. A degree in Math and a Masters in Computer Science plus 40 years of hard core management and business experience. His is very much an American story.
No silver spoon here. Were he my opponent, I would not take him lightly.
Jul '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
Bumbling Barry would, at this point, lose to his own teleprompter. He is a baldly conceited ass who hectors the victims of his policies for being too stupid to support him. His allies have already tried the race card on Cain, and are suffering other signs of nervous breakdown as well.
If Cain, a black man, is capable of racist hate, than obviously the Black Panther that Holder got off on an open and shut case of voter intimidation because blacks can't be racist needs to serve his sentence.
Dec '10
Re: Don't Let the Polls Deceive You, Obama Could Win in 2012
michael kelley: "....a genial, harmless dodo?"
What?
I think Mr. Cain has a remarkable resume and that he comes across as a person with conviction.
Married to the same woman for 43 years. His mother was a cleaner, his father a chauffeur. A degree in Math and a Masters in Computer Science plus 40 years of hard core management and business experience. His is very much an American story.
No silver spoon here. Were he my opponent, I would not take him lightly. · Oct 6 at 12:37pm
Don't forget that he served on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, ultimately rising to the position of Chairman. Between Roger Simon and Herman Cain, it's pretty clear who's the bumbling dodo.