Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
We all know about the Ricochet Code of Conduct (CoC), and more specifically the prohibition of the discussion of conspiracy theories on this site. Many members, including myself, often without realizing that a comment was seen by the editor as a conspiracy theory or too conspiracy theory-like, have had comments redacted because of this.
How do the Ricochet editors actually discern what is, or is not, a true "conspiracy theory" comment in the first place?
For example, I believe that Lee Harvey Oswald assassinated JFK, and that he acted alone. This opinion could be seen as one of the many conspiracy theories surrounding this event, with a person seeing his or her own pet theory as what really happened. (The conspiracy part of my opinion is that saying Oswald acted alone might be trying to cover up or deflect from what is supposed to have "really" happened--otherwise, my belief doesn't sound much like a conspiracy theory, per se).
Also, on an astronomy site that I sometimes visit, there are two sections (among many others), titled "Against the Mainstream," and "Conspiracy Theories." Discussion of the possibility that (anthropogenic or not) global warming (GW) is a big, fat fraud is found in the "Against the Mainstream" section. I'm thinking that politically, most of the people who visit this site are liberal-leaning, if not full-blown liberals, as well as those who run the site (assuming they are political at all). Since GW is a politically-charged issue, with much at stake for both sides, can, or will, the day ever come that the fraud of global warming will make it out of the "Against the Mainstream" section? If so, who decides that, and how is it decided?
How "conspiracy theory" is defined is obviously important. "Against the Mainstream" is not quite in "Conspiracy Theory" territory proper, but it's close. The definition seems to depend on time, place, culture, etc., as well as the subjective opinion or bias of a given editor. How many people in a given society (or on a given planet?) that subscribe to a particular theory must also figure into it. For example, would the astronomical theories of Galileo or Copernicus qualify as conspiracy theories in their day, or just simple heresy? If qualified as conspiratorial, are these instances of conspiracy theories that have now become respected, "mainstream" theories? Can anyone think of any other, more modern examples of this? Or is it that conspiracy theories, by definition, can never come true?
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Jun '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
Two thoughts:
First, you're not paranoid when everyone really is against you.
Second, small conspiracies exist (the 9/11 killers were part of a relatively small conspiracy), and more are being hatched as we speak. The problem is the purveyors of the large conspiracies (e.g., the CIA or Mossad concocted 9/11; the Jews control the levers of all power in the world; FDR knew in advance about Pearl Harbor). These kinds of conspiracies must involve large numbers of people who must maintain, over decades, complete discipline--given the law of large numbers, this kind of conspiracy is simply impossible to keep quiet for long periods. All it takes is one disgruntled or repentant conspirator and the lid is blown. Good example: The Soviet NKVD's massacre of thousands of Polish officers, doctors, and others in the Katyn Forest in 1940. Fifty years later the truth came out.
Edited on Apr 9, 2011 at 9:36amJun '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
The truth about Katyn Forest was out two years later, the problem was that it was the Germans who unearthed the bodies.
Jun '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
You're absolutely right. My point was, and I should have been more specific, that it was never conclusively proven that the Russians did it until the 1990s when the Soviet archives were opened. Which causes me to throw a caveat into my belief that big conspiracies always come to light. If a big conspiracy can be hidden, it will be in a totalitarian society where people are afraid to speak. But in the end, big conspiracies come to light.
I'm sure some things in D. C. remain secret for a while, but not for very long. Leakers everywhere.
Edited on Apr 9, 2011 at 10:55amJun '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
I would submit that claiming that the CoC was really about preventing conspiracy theories from being discussed on Ricochet is in fact a conspiracy theory.
Sep '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
Wondered when someone would go there...
Mar '11
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
A not entirely rhetorical question may remedy the confusion: if a conspiracy theory moves from the realm of theory to the realm of fact, has it not become just a conspiracy?
In which case....
Sep '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
I have the feeling they didn't quite know what type of commenters they would get when they started this and wanted to discourage the standard conspiracy banter of Bidlerbergers (sp?)and the like.
I have an acquaintance who is a perennial conspiracy victim, I admire skepticism but these people reveal themselves as dupes -they cannot seem to ever allow for random confluence of complex events. And they are not skeptical of automatic skepticism. Sometimes a banana is just a banana. They refuse to understand the intensely competitive nature of everything. They are paranoid. There must be a human actor or a group of actors behind everything.
Next time I'll ask him if conspiracy theorists are all in some kind of collusion with each other, or are they just random conspiracy theorists....
Oct '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
Well, groupthink often produces what appears to be conspiracies, but are simply large numbers of people who agree with each other and acting in pain sight. Usually the "conspiracy" is nowhere near as extreme as it seems.
Jul '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
Dan Holmes:
For example, I believe that Lee Harvey Oswald assassinated JFK, and that he acted alone. This opinion could be seen as one of the many conspiracy theories surrounding this event, with a person seeing his or her own pet theory as what really happened. (The conspiracy part of my opinion is that saying Oswald acted alone might be trying to cover up or deflect from what is supposed to have "really" happened--otherwise, my belief doesn't sound much like a conspiracy theory, per se).
I would love to have a discussion sometime regarding this issue.
When I visited the 6th floor Museum it totally changed how I thought about the JFK shooting.
Unlike Oliver Stone who thinks there is a Janitor on the 6th floor of a building in Boston who wasn't in on the conspiracy, I think Oswald believed he would be acting alone. My visit also showed me some things that have never heard discussed.
Edited on Apr 9, 2011 at 11:39pmSep '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
Jaydee_007
Dan Holmes:
For example, I believe that Lee Harvey Oswald assassinated JFK, and that he acted alone. ...
I would love to have a discussion sometime regarding this issue.
When I visited the 6th floor Museum it totally changed how I thought about the JFK shooting.
Unlike Oliver Stone who thinks there is a Janitor on the 6th floor of a building in Boston who wasn't in on the conspiracy, I think Oswald believed he would be acting alone. My visit also showed me some things that have never heard discussed. · Apr 9 at 11:37pm
Edited on Apr 09 at 11:39 pm
I used to think that the CIA was somehow involved, but the thorough and outstanding book that changed my mind was "Case Closed," by Gerald Posner. In it, Posner gives a detailed bio of Oswald and uses that to bolster his subsequent demolishing of every aspect of the many (what I now consider to be) conspiracy theories about the JFK assassination.
And that's not all there is to the book. Definitely worth checking out.
Dec '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
It is the conspiracies in plain sight that concern me. I knw from every day in work that there is a gradation from radical environmentalists, through the modestly green, to advocate for policy that will get individuals out of their cars. They say so, publically. They say so privately.
As a society, we tend to pretend that these folks are just our friends and neighbors that have slightly different views, but the reality is that they are spending our money and they are sometimes freaking out our kids in school. It takes real effort to gently combat and/or accommodate these folks, every day. It is a conspiracy, on their part, but it is right out in the open.
Jul '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
Dan Holmes
"Case Closed," by Gerald Posner. In it, Posner gives a detailed bio of Oswald and uses that to bolster his subsequent demolishing of every aspect of the many conspiracy theories about the JFK assassination.
And that's not all there is to the book. Definitely worth checking out.
Let us be clear, I did not say I believe there was a conspiracy, I believe Oswald did not act alone. It takes 3 people to have a conspiracy.
One example of my problem with the book you mention is how the author shrugs off any arguments of Oswald's shooting ability by pointing out he was a Marxman. (Yeah, right. Oswald missed a stationary General Walker from 100 feet; 30 Meeters.)
Oswald made Marksman by 1 point. 2 points less and he doesn't qualify. Marksman is the bronze level of which Sharpshooter and Expert rank Higher. I have never fired on a qualification course where I did not break expert. Generally within 2 or 3 of a perfect score.
One thing I know for certain, I could not have done what they say Oswald did. And Oswald wasn't nearly as good a shot as I am.
Apr '11
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
To my thinking, one of the major characteristics of a conspiracy theory is that it is epistemologically closed. No evidence exists which might falsify the theory, because (supposedly) the conspiracy has cut all of it off.
I knew some people about 10 years ago who thought Planet X was coming to intersect the Earth's orbit. This is quite clearly a nutball theory, but it was falsifiable-- they had a date predicted, and if the planet wasn't sighted at that time (which it wasn't), they would know the theory was false. So not all nutball theories are conspiracy theories.
There's always the plain obvious fact that if they're so good at concealing the evidence, how did you manage to get any? If you posit mysterious Bildebergers, who control their own affairs but cannot also control the evidence of their own affairs, then in order to get it to be unfalsifiable you have to keep adding epicycles of meta-Bildebergers who control all the evidence of the evidence of the Bildebergers. When you start doing that, Occam's Razor kicks in.
May '10
Re: Do Conspiracy Theories Ever Come True?
But, we DO have some obvious conspiracies we could identify...Lincoln, CIA/Mafia plots on Castro...Mossadegh, Lumumba, even Watergate...if not for Nixon wanting his accomplishments recorded for history, it was John Dean against everyone else.
What is challenging is PROVING any. Most are from fevered, already conspiratorially-minded advocates of a certain hardcore distrusting soul.
Were there people in Nazi Germany or imperial Japan who theorized that "the Americans/British must have broken our codes! How did they get (our U-boats, Yamamoto, etc etc.) My recollection is that Majic and Ultra stayed top-secret until the mid-70s. Most conspiracy stuff today would become the fodder of the nutter class. I'm not sure if someone "came forward" that it would be believed...if it were true. I can see why it's kept off Ricochet. It would be a lot of cluttering, unwanted "traffic." Oh...by the way --->did we miss somebody at OKC? ;)
Edited on Apr 11, 2011 at 10:30am