Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Cornelius Julius Sebastian ·
July 24, 2012 at 10:44pm
Okay, all you Ricochetti out there on the battle fronts of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin: sound off.
How's it looking from the ramparts? What's the feel on the street? In the coffee shops? At the office water cooler? The assembly line? The Pub? What does your gut tell you? Who will carry off your coveted electoral booty this fall? POTUS or Mitt Romney? Assuage or propel the fears of those of us consigned to Red State bubbles. If you are calling it one way or the other, give us the reason.
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Comments:
Aug '11
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Here in Wisconsin, we're in recovery. It appears that after the recall elections in June, all the campaign signs came down, the bumper stickers came off, and very little related to the fall elections have gone up yet.
We have a Primary here in three weeks where we'll choose candidates for outgoing Senator Herb Kohl, and though the airwaves are blanketed with ads, I haven't seen a yard sign yet. Nor for Romney or Obama.
I'm kind of enjoying the lull. It's been a rough 18 months in the Badger State.
Aug '11
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
My predictions for Wisconsin are that Republicans will gain a Senate seat with no change in the House.
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
DrewInWisconsin: Here in Wisconsin, we're in recovery. It appears that after the recall elections in June, all the campaign signs came down, the bumper stickers came off, and very little related to the fall elections have gone up yet.
We have a Primary here in three weeks where we'll choose candidates for outgoing Senator Herb Kohl, and though the airwaves are blanketed with ads, I haven't seen a yard sign yet. Nor for Romney or Obama.
I'm kind of enjoying the lull. It's been a rough 18 months in the Badger State. · 4 minutes ago
Do you think the momentum from the Walker win will carry into November?
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Good. Senate gains a must. What about POTUS?
Jun '10
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
From the battleground state of Utah: Hatch easily retains his seat as Senator; the new fourth district will elect Mia Love (and oust six-term Blue Dog Jim Matheson), making all House seats R; Utah will win the vaunted "the state that gives the Republican Presidential candidate the biggest margin of victory" award, edging Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Idaho.
Rest easy. We have it under control in Utah.
Feb '11
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
I really wonder why NC is considered a toss up. Obama barely won NC in 2008 and there has been a 5% shift nationwide shift against him. Why would his margin be holding up in NC when there has been such a shift nationally?
Consider:
1. The economy. NC has one of the highest unemployment rates nationally and the economy outside RTP is not good.
2. Advertising. Obama is spending lots of money on advertising and these are being answered almost 1-to-1 by the Republican National Committee.
3. Coattails. There's a Republican candidate for governor who will help Romney.
4. State of the NC Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is in disarray and unable to raise money. Democrats are attacking both Bank of America and Duke Energy, both of which have been major contributors to the Democrats in the past.
5. GOP legislature has been jerking Gov. Perdue's chain. Lower taxes, spending cuts, veto overrides with Democratic cooperation, and an agenda that warms the hearts of a conservative base.
6. Silence. Nobody is talking about the election yet and when you get people talking it's venom.
NC will give its 15 electoral votes to Romney.
Aug '11
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Cornelius Julius Sebastian
DrewInWisconsin: Here in Wisconsin, we're in recovery. It appears that after the recall elections in June, all the campaign signs came down, the bumper stickers came off, and very little related to the fall elections have gone up yet.
We have a Primary here in three weeks where we'll choose candidates for outgoing Senator Herb Kohl, and though the airwaves are blanketed with ads, I haven't seen a yard sign yet. Nor for Romney or Obama.
I'm kind of enjoying the lull. It's been a rough 18 months in the Badger State.
Do you think the momentum from the Walker win will carry into November?
Yep. That, plus the reduction in spending power of the public sector unions (now that teachers, et al, are no longer forced to cough up fees) should mean less money flowing to Democrats.
Obama will still win Dane County (Madison) and the 4th District (Urban Milwaukee). I don't expect him to do very well outside of these areas.
Wisconsin's left has been despondent since losing the Big One (and that after losing several little ones), silent and sulking. There's no enthusiasm there.
Edited on July 24, 2012 at 5:04pmJul '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Here in CO we are still stinging from the events of last Friday. The unfortunate reality is that we have split personality disorder here in the Centennial state - A Republican House and Democrat Senate and Governor. With no Senate or Governor races this cycle we have an opportunity to get these notorious ticket splitters to go in one direction: Toward Gov. Romney.
A personal anecdote: an Electrical Engineer friend of mine who voted for Obama last time is leaning towards Romney because he is fed up with the destruction the Obama administration has wrought. He tells me He isn't threatened by Romney in the same way that he was threatened by Sarah Palin, so as long as Romney stays away from a Veep Pick he would deem to be a Religious Extremist, Romney has his vote.
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
DrewInWisconsin
Obama will still win Dane County (Madison) and the 4th District (Urban Milwaukee). I don't expect him to do very well outside of these areas. · 1 minute ago
Does the margin in the rest of the state overcome Madison and Urban Milwaukee to carry WI for Romney?
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
A personal anecdote: an Electrical Engineer friend of mine who voted for Obama last time is leaning towards Romney because he is fed up with the destruction the Obama administration has wrought. He tells me He isn't threatened by Romney in the same way that he was threatened by Sarah Palin, so as long as Romney stays away from a Veep Pick he would deem to be a Religious Extremist, Romney has his vote. · 4 minutes ago
Understand, and condolences again on the tragedy. How do you think your electrician friend would react to a Ryan VP pick? In other words, is a solid conservative still acceptable so long as he or she is not too religiously preachy?
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
My family is in Colorado and my brother recently told me that he thinks anti-Obama voters aren't making a big production of things. They just want to get to November and vote him out.
He said he won't put up a sign (for a variety of reasons) and he doesn't talk politics with his neighbors. He pretty much hates the Republican Party.
But he can't wait for November.
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: My family is in Colorado and my brother recently told me that he thinks anti-Obama voters aren't making a big production of things. They just want to get to November and vote him out.
He said he won't put up a sign (for a variety of reasons) and he doesn't talk politics with his neighbors. He pretty much hates the Republican Party.
But he can't wait for November. · 1 minute ago
SWEEEEEEEEET!!!!
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Hang On: I really wonder why NC is considered a toss up. Obama barely won NC in 2008 and there has been a 5% shift nationwide shift against him....
Consider:
1. The economy. NC has one of the highest unemployment rates nationally and the economy outside RTP is not good.
2. Advertising. Obama is spending lots of money on advertising and these are being answered almost 1-to-1 by the Republican National Committee.
3. Coattails. There's a Republican candidate for governor who will help Romney.
4. State of the NC Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is in disarray and unable to raise money. Democrats are attacking both Bank of America and Duke Energy, both of which have been major contributors to the Democrats in the past.
5. GOP legislature has been jerking Gov. Perdue's chain. Lower taxes, spending cuts, veto overrides with Democratic cooperation, and an agenda that warms the hearts of a conservative base.
6. Silence. Nobody is talking about the election yet and when you get people talking it's venom.
NC will give its 15 electoral votes to Romney. · 22 minutes ago
Beautiful!!! From your lips to God's ears.
Aug '11
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Cornelius Julius Sebastian
DrewInWisconsin
Obama will still win Dane County (Madison) and the 4th District (Urban Milwaukee). I don't expect him to do very well outside of these areas.
Does the margin in the rest of the state overcome Madison and Urban Milwaukee to carry WI for Romney?
That's always hard to say. I think a lot depends on voter enthusiasm, and we're just tired of voting here in Wisconsin. But I kind of expect fall elections to look a lot like the Walker recall results from June. I think the last 18 months have had a huge a polarizing effect here, and not to the Democrats' advantage. The enthusiasm gap will benefit Romney.
Jun '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
DrewInWisconsin
Cornelius Julius Sebastian
DrewInWisconsin
Obama will still win Dane County (Madison) and the 4th District (Urban Milwaukee). I don't expect him to do very well outside of these areas.
Does the margin in the rest of the state overcome Madison and Urban Milwaukee to carry WI for Romney?
That's always hard to say. I think a lot depends on voter enthusiasm, and we're just tired of votinghere in Wisconsin. But I kind of expect fall elections to look a lot like the Walker recall results from June. I think the last 18 months have had a huge a polarizing effect here, and not to the Democrats' advantage. The enthusiasm gap will benefit Romney. · 2 minutes ago
That is welcome news on enthusiasm gap. One more quick question then I'll stop bugging you-- if Ryan becomes VP, does Walker get to pick his replacement? If not, and it has be a special election, what is prognosis another conservative taking his place?
Aug '11
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Understand that my perceptions may not hew to reality, and I probably don't know what I'm talking about. : )
Jul '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Cornelius Julius Sebastian
Understand, and condolences again on the tragedy. How do you think your electrician friend would react to a Ryan VP pick? In other words, is a solid conservative still acceptable so long as he or she is not too religiously preachy? · 36 minutes ago
Keeping in mind that this guy is at best a passive observer of politics, my concern would be that he would look at a Paul Ryan and say, "Who?" At worst, he would confuse Ryan with Eric Cantor, whom he seems to have some sort of animas against, at best he would be indifferent, as Ryan seems unthreatening and has the attraction of agreeing with my pal in wanting Helicopter Ben to NOT print more money.
Jul '12
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: My family is in Colorado and my brother recently told me that he thinks anti-Obama voters aren't making a big production of things. They just want to get to November and vote him out.
He said he won't put up a sign (for a variety of reasons) and he doesn't talk politics with his neighbors. He pretty much hates the Republican Party.
But he can't wait for November. · 56 minutes ago
Does your family live in Boulder or something? I live in Douglas County, which is the reddest bastion of Conservatism and Republicanism you are likely to find in this or practically any state. My perception of reality may also be warped by that and the fact that as an Engineer, the President's energy and environmental policies are viewed in my workplace as at best a cruel joke.
Edited on July 24, 2012 at 6:13pmRe: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Majestyk
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: My family is in Colorado and my brother recently told me that he thinks anti-Obama voters aren't making a big production of things. They just want to get to November and vote him out.
He said he won't put up a sign (for a variety of reasons) and he doesn't talk politics with his neighbors. He pretty much hates the Republican Party.
But he can't wait for November. · 56 minutes ago
Does your family live in Boulder or something? I live in Douglas County, which is the reddest bastion of Conservatism and Republicanism you are likely to find in this or practically any state. My perception of reality may also be warped by that and the fact that as an Engineer, the President's energy and environmental policies are viewed in my workplace as at best a cruel joke. · 6 minutes ago
Edited 4 minutes ago
My folks are in Douglas County (Ricochet meet-up when I visit them in August?). But my sister and brother are in Denver/Centennial.
Dec '10
Re: Dispatches from Swing State Ricochetti
Here in the reddest of red counties in Colorado where McCain yard signs only held a 2 to 1 advantage over Obama signs in 2004, there are no Obama signs and the Romney signs are appearing in yards where there have never been political signs before at all. As Molly says, enthusiasm for November is up in my estimation. We can't wait.
On the downside, the Democrat governor made the media tour after the Aurora massacre sounding very reasonable about gun control being ineffective against such crimes. I'm sure this will help his re-election bid in Colorado, although he isn't up this year. However, anything which makes Democrats seem reasonable isn't good for Republicans in this mushy purple state. Denver-Boulder-Pueblo are Democrat strongholds and I don't expect it to change this year. It's going to be close, I suspect.