Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
"You don't actually believe that we have any shot at ousting the President in next year's election, do you?" my friend incredulously asked over tea in a San Francisco cafe last week.
"Sure I do," I replied. And I pulled up Maureen Dowd's column from last weekend on my phone to demonstrate what I believe to be widespread liberal disillusionment with Obama.
"But since when does Maureen Dowd represent what the mainstream liberal really thinks?" my friend retorted. She had a point.
Last night, I sent this NYT article to my friend to follow up on our conversation. I take away two points from the piece. The first is that rank and file Democrats have moved beyond mere disillusionment. They're now talking about deep discontent and frustration.
“In my district, the enthusiasm for him has mostly evaporated,” said Representative Peter A. DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon. “There is tremendous discontent with his direction.”
But a survey of two dozen Democratic officials found a palpable sense of concern that transcended a single week of ups and downs. The conversations signaled a change in mood from only a few months ago, when Democrats widely believed that Mr. Obama’s path to re-election, while challenging, was secure.
“The frustrations are real,” said Representative Elijah E. Cummings of Maryland, who was the state chairman of Mr. Obama’s campaign four years ago. “I think we know that there is a Barack Obama that’s deep in there, but he’s got to synchronize it with passion and principles.”
[...]
Mr. DeFazio recalled attending a dozen or so town-hall-style meetings recently in his district, a slice of western Oregon that Mr. Obama carried in 2008 by 11 percentage points. Mr. DeFazio said party loyalists had bluntly said they were reconsidering their support.
“I have one heck of a lot of Democrats saying, ‘I voted for him before, don’t know if I can do it again,’ ” he said.
The second salient point is that the party faithful are noticeably squirming. Everyone has his own criticism to lob at the President.
“Now that they’re slapping him in the side of the face, he’s coming back,” said William George, a committee member from Pennsylvania. “He needs to start stomping his foot and pounding the desk.”...
“He should have given it [the jobs speech] earlier,” said Representative John D. Dingell of Michigan.
Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio said, “He’s got to engage, make the contrast and occasionally be combative.”
“We need to work more on the message,” Mr. Rodriguez said...
So on the question of whether the President is in trouble with his reelection efforts, there's no doubt that he is. Next question: Would a John McCain (that is to say Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, or any other candidate who will have an awfully hard time energizing the base) beat Obama in 2012?
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Jun '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
The fairy tale doesn't have the ending that the Democrats want. They want Daddy President to fix the story, and find $10-trillion in a hollow tree somewhere, but Daddy President is out of tricks.
Jul '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
I'm not sure what to say to this really. Are we honestly surprised that the 'blow in the wind' party is now unhappy with its own 'savior'? My grandmother is a dyed in the wool democrat, always has been (teachers union in California and all). Even she has begun launching into tirades about the President. I think that is a sign that we truly are on the path to ousting him.
Etoiledunord is right, the President is out of tricks and his party now sees him for what he is, a trickster.
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
Great question, Diane. I'd still say no. I haven't heard very many conservatives telling me that John McCain would have made a much better president. I think people are looking for someone who would be the complete anti-Obama.
Aug '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
He needs to start "stomping his foot" and "be combative"? Isn't part of the problem that he is already too combative and repeatedly stomps his feet like a child having a tantrum? At least, that's how this non-Democrat sees things.
(I would certainly encourage the President to continue stomping his little feet like a two-year-old demanding candy, but that's because I think it will only make him look worse.)
Oct '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
"Next question: Would a John McCain (that is to say Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, or any other candidate who will have an awfully hard time energizing the base) beat Obama in 2012?"
Why Rick Perry? I'd think that except for the Gardasil and Texan superhighway, he hits many of the right notes-pro-business, pro-growth, and favors a strong defence.
May '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
I still hear liberals saying the problem is that Obama wasn't able to overcome Republican opposition. They are angry at Obama, but angry because he didn't pass even more wildly anti-American legislation.
Disappointment only affects voter turnout. Ultimately, the vast majority of Democrat voters will vote for Obama again because they hate Republicans even more.
Our greatest advantages are that swing voters tend to blame everything on the sitting President and that the thrill of voting for the first black President has subsided for people who normally vote Republican.
Apr '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
The answer is yes. "Anybody But Obama" will win in 2012 short an economic miracle, which he is doing his best to circumvent.
In 2008, it was "Anybody But Bush", which translated into "Any Non-Republican". That alone was worth 5 points at least. This time around, I think all of the young people are going to stay away because it won't be cool to vote for the guy who lied to them. In addition, people on the fence are going to vote Republican because they are sick of the lies and attacks from the Democrats. In other words, the Democrats are out of valid ideas, so they left offering up pipe dreams or slinging mud. Americans can only take so much of that before they turn in large numbers.
As it stands now, I actually predict a GOP blow out in 2012. This could change, but I just don't see how the Dems can improve their situation. Their ideology has failed.
Aug '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
On good days, I also feel like 2012 is going to be a 1984-style sweep in the Presidential race (and a repeat of 2010 for the House and Senate).
However, I would encourage Republicans to run as if it's going to be a squeaker. Don't get comfortable. Don't get cocky. Assume that the President is still just as popular as he was on the day he was sworn in.
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
I glanced at the title of your post, Diane, and thought it said Discontinent, Frustrated, and Concerned. I should go lie down now.
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
Aaron Miller:
Disappointment only affects voter turnout. Ultimately, the vast majority of Democrat voters will vote for Obama again because they hate Republicans even more.
Not necessarily. I recall on a recent Ricochet podcast hearing Glenn Hubbard say that he thought business people (he was specifically talking about those on Wall Street) were pragmatic in their approach to politics. If they're not pleased with the president's approach to economic growth, they'll vote for the opposition.
Now, perhaps most of these business people aren't really Democrats, but rather "swing voters." But from one election to the next, it's possible for a chunk of Democrats to become "swing voters." After all, I know quite a few Republicans who became swing voters in '08.
Jan '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
Yes, there's discontent here, and discontent there - it's the nature of the Democratic Party; consider it's constituency. But, let's not forget that Democrats not only think, but vote reflexively. In the absence of a fringe Democrat challenge to Obama, they will pull the (D) lever and never know why.
May '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
Aaron Miller:
Our greatest advantages are that swing voters tend to blame everything on the sitting President and that the thrill of voting for the first black President has subsided for people who normally vote Republican. · Sep 12 at 10:51am
I agree, but this is a short-term advantage. In the broader picture, these kinds of voters -- unserious and unthinking -- have a tendency to reward the Democrats.
We'll take it in 2012, and happily, sure. But it remains frustrating that there are so many voters who have such shallow, ignorant reasoning, and who are far too easily manipulated by media and liberal talking points.
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
Maybe, let's see what happens in Anthony Weiner's former district tomorrow. A lot more Democrats there than Republicans, but it looks as if the Republican might win. If he does, you will hear harsh attacks on Obama from the left all over the country.
May '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
The thought process of the American Voter....
How about a Republican President and a Democratic Congress or a Democratic President and a Republican Congress?
That's gridlock and I don't want gridlock. I want these problems solved.
OK. Then it's a Republican President and Congress, right?
The last time I tried that I got two wars and massive debt.
OK. Then it's a Democratic President and Congress, right?
But the last time I tried that I got a massive, unpopular entitlement program, three times the debt I had before, chronic unemployment and an incompetent president.
Maybe we could kick the can down the road a little... I want my Social Security...
Social Security is broke. They raided it. Then they cut the payroll tax. That starved it. You ain't gonna get it either way.
Now if there were a third party... or a strong charismatic leader...
That's what leads to even more trouble. WAD! (We Are Doomed!)
Feb '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
It is fourteen very long months to the election - way to early to make any serious predictions.
The current sniping should be taken lightly because the left has a vast emotional investment in Obama. It is a safe bet that once the Republican nomination race begins to settle out, the left and it's client media will solidify behind the incumbent and amplify a campaign of vituperation and vilification to levels unprecedented in the modern era, particularly if the Republican nominee is of a more conservative cast.
The vast majority of the electorate is immovable. To win, the Republicans must recapture the warm and fuzzy historic moment prodigals of the rootless center and, unfortunately, their own ranks. Buyer's remorse is the best thing going for the Republicans in this cycle. It will be an interesting year.
Addendum:
Paul A. Rahe: Anthony Weiner's former district.
It will be interesting to see if the so called "Reagan Democrats" are willing to defect again (the hard core won't). Still, given the time frame and the Republican ambivalence toward their field, I wouldn't try to read too much into it.
Edited on September 12, 2011 at 9:31pmOct '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
John McCain ran one of the most pathetic presidential campaigns in human history. His reaction to the economic meltdown in September 2008 was embarrassing. He was the candidate of the party that had been in power for much of the previous 8 years and squandered its opportunities. His opponent was a blank slate upon which everyone could project their own hopes and dreams, was youthful and telegenic with a fabulous voice. Oh, and his opponent was black, enchanting millions of voters who otherwise wouldn't have considered for a nanosecond voting for Hillary or any of the other Dem candidates (Noonan, Buckley, Powell, Brooks, ad nauseam).
And yet...McCain the inept snagged 47% of the popular vote.
OF COURSE McCain could beat Obama in 2012.
Feb '11
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
dittoheadadt:
And yet...McCain the inept snagged 47% of the popular vote.
OF COURSE McCain could beat Obama in 2012.
Popular vote percentages mean very little. McCain took only 32% of the Electoral College vote. A 65% plurality of the popular vote in Oklahoma or Wyoming doesn't do you much good in the EC. If you lose California by only 2000 votes your popular vote percentage doesn't look bad, but you have still lost the electoral vote 55 to 0. No Republican is likely to win CA next year, and until that becomes a threat, CA, and states like it, will not hop on the proportional allocation bandwagon.
Edited on September 13, 2011 at 12:33amSep '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
If by November 2012 the economy seems to have turned a corner and is genuinely and steadily improving, regardless of whether the debt issue has been seriously addressed, the president will be re-elected. (You can depend on there being lots of media stories to that effect around election time—if it's at all possible to do so.) This is why I'm kind of putting my hopes more on increasing membership in the House and possibly re-taking the Senate so that his second-term agenda can be contained (wanting, of course, for the country a real improvement in the national economy).
Dec '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
Progressive (socialist) policies are antithetical to prosperity (read Art Laffer in the WSJ today). There is no way the Democrats under Obama are going to do anything which would actually improve the economy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see unemployment at 11% next year. And that's the best case, assuming the EU doesn't pull us all under.
I too expect a landslide for the GOP if any sort of credible candidate is chosen, i.e., Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, ... And I also pray the GOP keeps campaigning like every vote matters.
Read that Art Laffer article. What he is proposing for a solution (enterprise zones) is so contrary to progressive ideology, the Left would rather collectively (how else?) drink cyanide than enact any of his proposals. Their effectiveness would utterly (further) discredit progressivism. Of course we should expect the left in the media and elsewhere to align with Obama. Its very survival depends on him.
In the words of Edna Mode... "Fight! WIN!!"
Dec '10
Re: Democrats are Discontented, Frustrated, and Concerned
If conservatives can't beat THIS president in THIS environment I fear all is lost. The wind is at our backs more fully than I can recall. Still, sadly, I'm not convinced we can win (I don't consider electing a Big Government Republican a win). And I'm afraid that a loss at this juncture will crush my spirit. I can see myself turning away in mourning at the extinguishing of that great "city on a hill" and not turning back. When I contemplate my country's prospects, for both the short and long terms, I'm not at all optimistic.