David and Goliath in Michigan
What is going to happen in Michigan? I hear this question a lot these days. Tomorrow, the primary is being held. The latest polls show Mitt Romney in the lead over Rick Santorum by 2%, which lies within the margin of error. In other words, it would appear to be a dead heat.
Michigan is Romney's home state. He was born here. He grew up here. His father was Governor. His mother ran for the Senate here. He ought to have an edge.
Michigan is also a blue-collar state. There are lots of Catholics and lots of evangelicals in Michigan. Rick Santorum ought to have considerable strength, and he clearly does.
Romney has a financial advantage. I do not have a working television set. I have only an old beat-up set suitable for watching movies on DVD. So I have not seen the television advertisements. Moreover, I do not listen much to the radio. My commute lasts about six minutes, and I spend my free time reading. So I have not heard the radio advertisements.
We have received robocalls from both sides. Romney's outnumber those of Santorum by about three-to-one, and they are all negative. Whether this will matter I do not know. It might backfire.
In 2008, Romney embraced the Right. He did the rounds on the conservative talk shows; he made himself available for interviews by the folks at National Review. This year, he has kept the Right at arm's length. He has avoided conservative talk radio; he has stayed away from folks at National Review who are favorable to his cause. He has treated the Tea-Party like a settlement of lepers.
This week, in Michigan, however, Romney spoke to a coalition of Tea-Party groups. And in his speech he denounced the auto-bailout and slammed the United Auto Workers. This drew criticism from the UAW, which held a counter-rally on a rooftop across the street from one of his rallies.
I presume that Romney did what he did in a bid to pry some Tea-Partiers loose from Santorum. Whether this will happen I am unsure. But I would not be surprised if it were to draw some stalwart members of the UAW to the polls to vote for Santorum. Michigan has an open primary -- and wild things have happened in the past. I remember George Wallace winning the Democratic Presidential primary in the state.
Who will win here? It depends in the end on turnout. Intensity matters. My guess is not worth much. I have been a Michigander for fewer than five years (I could tell you about Oklahoma, however). I will nonetheless offer my guess.
I think that Santorum will win. He has a better ground game than does Romney. Remember what happened in Iowa, Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota. Santorum is, in fact, a much more experienced politician. He has won a number of races and lost one, and Michigan is a lot like Pennsylvania -- whence he hails. The polls do not tell you who will show up. My sense is that Santorum's admirers like him a lot more than Romney's admirers like him. Without any help from the UAW, I think that he would win. With its help, if he gets it, he may win by an impressive margin.
But who knows? In the meantime, there is freezing rain predicted for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The last time we had freezing rain there were people in Hillsdale who were without power for a week. We might not know the results for a while.
TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: I now suspect that Romney may also be also be quietly fishing for Democratic votes -- albeit of a non-working class sort. Whey would he be saturating Ann Arbor with robocalls (as is reported by Ricochet's correspondent in that fair city)? There are wheels within wheels.
In the meantime, the polls are all over the place. PPP had Romney up 2% yesterday; it has Santorum up 1% today. Mitchell/Rosetta Stone had Santorum up 1% yesterday; it has Romney up 1% today. Rasmussen had Romney up 2% yesterday and has not reported today. Go figure!
In Hillsdale, it is bright, sunny, and cold. Tonight we are supposed to have freezing rain.
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Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Palaeologus: I had a somewhat different experience with the robocalls.
Last week I was getting many more from the Romney campaign, but over the weekend it was pretty much a dead heat. · 57 minutes ago
Thanks for this information. It is hard to know what is going on, and it is useful to have spies in different localities.
May '10
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
I imagine it depends a lot on which candidates one has supported in the past, and to whom those candidates have sold their mailing lists. I for one have not yet sent any money to any 2012 candidate.
Oct '10
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
jmartpolitico RT @FixAaron: Santorum campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley confirms that robocall urging Democrats to vote for him is from his campaign
Jul '10
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Romney was ready for it.
I received a(n) (urgent) robocall from his campaign tonight addressing this:
"Rick Santorum has gone beyond just taking one for the team. He has proved that he is willing to wear the other team's jersey, if it will get him more votes."
I also received two robocalls from the Santorum campaign which referred to Mitt's "pro-choice values."
I don't know how this will play out, which surprises me. I figured I'd have it pegged by now.
Oct '10
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
AFSCME unveils anti-Romney auto bailout ad
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/02/afscme-unveils-antiromney-auto-bailout-ad-115655.html
This spot is running in Ohio.
Apr '11
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
John Marzan:
jmartpolitico RT @FixAaron: Santorum campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley confirms that robocall urging Democrats to vote for him is from his campaign · 1 hour ag
philipaklein RT @ppppolls: Romney leads among Republicans in Michigan. It's Democrats putting Santorum over the top. We'll see if they really show up...
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Incidentally, I voted a little while ago. I was the thirty-second voter to show up in my ward at ca. 8:30 a.m. Turnout was light. There were no lines.
My wife voted more than an hour after I did. She was the fifty-first voter in our ward to show up. There were no lines.
Edited on February 28, 2012 at 4:03pmFeb '11
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Dr. Rahe, I have admired you and enjoyed reading you, but this humble admission made my day, if only the majority of academics in my ken were so honest. Mille grazie!
Paul A. Rahe
John Murdoch: Prof. Rahe--
How influential in Michigan politics are the not-quite-governmental organizations? (NQGO[tm]) · 27 minutes ago
Your larger point is interesting and compelling, and I am grateful that you made it. My answer is that I must plead ignorance. I do not have the feel for Michigan that I have for Oklahoma, and my inability to answer your perfectly sensible question is indicative of my ignorance. · 20 hours ago
Mar '11
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Paul A. Rahe: Incidentally, I voted a little while ago. I was the thirty-second voter to show up in my ward at ca. 8:30 a.m. Turnout was light. There were no lines.
My wife voted more than an hour after I did. She was the fifty-first voter in our ward to show up. There were no lines. · 1 hour ago
Edited 19 minutes ago
Whom does a light turnout favor? Typically it favors the incumbent. While there is no incumbent in this instance, Romney's family history in the state makes him the de facto incumbent, right?
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Gus Marvinson
Paul A. Rahe: Incidentally, I voted a little while ago. I was the thirty-second voter to show up in my ward at ca. 8:30 a.m. Turnout was light. There were no lines.
My wife voted more than an hour after I did. She was the fifty-first voter in our ward to show up. There were no lines. · 1 hour ago
Edited 19 minutes ago
Whom does a light turnout favor? Typically it favors the incumbent. While there is no incumbent in this instance, Romney's family history in the state makes him the de facto incumbent, right? · 11 minutes ago
In this primary seasons, lighter turnout has favored Romney, I believe. That's been one of the concerns with his candidacy. He doesn't bring out the elevated vote totals you might hope for in a bitter contest. Which means there's no better time to share his latest comment:
Jul '10
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Gus Marvinson
Paul A. Rahe: Incidentally, I voted a little while ago. I was the thirty-second voter to show up in my ward at ca. 8:30 a.m. Turnout was light. There were no lines.
My wife voted more than an hour after I did. She was the fifty-first voter in our ward to show up. There were no lines. · 1 hour ago
Edited 19 minutes ago
Whom does a light turnout favor? Typically it favors the incumbent. While there is no incumbent in this instance, Romney's family history in the state makes him the de facto incumbent, right? · 18 minutes ago
I also think it favors Romney. At least the light turnout in my heavily Dem precinct (no UAW jackets in sight, one person in front of me, one behind) does.
By comparison, I had maybe 15-20 folks in front of me in 2010, and a 2- 2 1/2 hour long line in 2008. 2000 and 2004 were much closer to 2010 than 2008.
Mar '11
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Gus Marvinson
Paul A. Rahe: Incidentally, I voted a little while ago. I was the thirty-second voter to show up in my ward at ca. 8:30 a.m. Turnout was light. There were no lines.
My wife voted more than an hour after I did. She was the fifty-first voter in our ward to show up. There were no lines. · 1 hour ago
Edited 19 minutes ago
Whom does a light turnout favor? Typically it favors the incumbent. While there is no incumbent in this instance, Romney's family history in the state makes him the de facto incumbent, right? · 11 minutes ago
In this primary seasons, lighter turnout has favored Romney, I believe. That's been one of the concerns with his candidacy. He doesn't bring out the elevated vote totals you might hope for in a bitter contest. Which means there's no better time to share his latest comment:
32 minutes ago
This also means that the other candidates aren't exciting folks either. Not good.
Oct '10
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
If Santorum secures the nomination because the UAW and the other unions cajoled enough Democrats to cross over and vote for him in Michigan, I think it will be a dark day. But I actually don't think that is going to happen.
Mar '11
Re: David and Goliath in Michigan
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Gus Marvinson
Paul A. Rahe: Incidentally, I voted a little while ago. I was the thirty-second voter to show up in my ward at ca. 8:30 a.m. Turnout was light. There were no lines.
My wife voted more than an hour after I did. She was the fifty-first voter in our ward to show up. There were no lines. · 1 hour ago
Edited 19 minutes ago
Whom does a light turnout favor? Typically it favors the incumbent. While there is no incumbent in this instance, Romney's family history in the state makes him the de facto incumbent, right? · 11 minutes ago
In this primary seasons, lighter turnout has favored Romney, I believe. That's been one of the concerns with his candidacy. He doesn't bring out the elevated vote totals you might hope for in a bitter contest. Which means there's no better time to share his latest comment:
6 hours ago
Your link wasn't working earlier, but I heard Romney's comment on Rush's show. Does Romney truly not realize how bad Obama is? Unbelievable.