David Defeats Goliath
Peter Robinson ·
February 8, 2012 at 7:16am
With 89 percent of the precincts reporting, CNN has just called Rick Santorum winner of the Colorado caucuses, in which he appears to have defeated Mitt Romney by 38 to 36 percent. The polls have for several days now indicated that Santorum would win in Minnesota and Missouri, although they understated his margin of victory, but no one--no one--expected Santorum to pull off a victory in Colorado, which was thought to be in Romney's back pocket.
An astonishing upset. Just astonishing.
Update three minutes later: The New York Times just called Colorado for Santorum as well.
- Comment (54)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (6)
Comments:
Apr '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Santorum had a couple of rough years when he got into the Senate, but almost all of his mistakes of that kind are from those two years. After the shameful NAFTA opposition, he became a reasonably solid free trader. He ended his pro-labor stances, which had never been terribly genuine. He worked, instead, on reforming welfare, for which he deserves far more credit than anyone else in the race, and on a host of other issues. Most notably, for its creativity and political success, the partial birth abortion ban act, a key demonstration that social conservatism can be a huge vote winner and fundraiser.
Jan '12
Re: David Defeats Goliath
It's just unfortunate that he is a lawyer.
Re: David Defeats Goliath
It is good that this struggle is continuing. Santorum was awful in the debates until the latter of the Florida exchanges when he seemed to find his footing. His criticism of Romney was just and powerful, and he evidently hit a nerve -- not soon enough to much influence matters in Florida. But in time it hit home.
Romney displayed in that same debate a capacity to learn from his mistakes and an ability to connect. If he ends up as the nominee, he will be a better candidate for having been repeatedly bloodied on the way. He is good at methodical planning. He needs to get to be good at the cut and thrust of political debate.
In the end, politics is about persuasion, and methodical planning is no substitute.
May '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
James Of England
Santorum had a couple of rough years when he got into the Senate, but almost all of his mistakes of that kind are from those two years...
Also, he's spent a lot time since his Senate loss thinking things through and developing a much clearer, more sure, and more conservative governing vision. His book displays it.
I think people are going to like what they learn about his economic plans.
Dec '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
I disagree, in a sense. Scope of government, that is, the peoples' relationship to their government, is the social issue, as made obvious by the HHS contraception mandate. Are we free citizens, or are we subjects of the giant nanny state? Santorum is suitably positioned to offer the choice to the people.
After listening to several speakers at last night's caucus refer to God, character, and the sanctity of life, I turned to my Hungarian-American neighbor and said, "the economy is very important, but the most important issue is the culture. Rick Santorum knows it." She agreed enthusiastically.
May '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Right on schedule, as predicted- the Santorum Boomlet! This will last either two or three weeks, roughly as long as the narrative can be dominated by caucuses that can be taken over by small groups of very enthusiastic evangelicals.
Minnesota and Colorado )particularly the Colorado Springs area, home to half of the national Christian ministries around, including Campus Crusade, Focus on the Fasmily, the CMA protestant denomination, etc. etc.). In Minnesota, we had the same group that justified the Governor's trick of shutting down the state government when the social activists tried to add gay marriage language to a budget bill. Colorado was basically Dobson's and Tony Perkins' last stand.
But this is the first rational groupthink gaggle. Santorum at least has some principles, does a little bit more homework, and no personal skeletons, unlike Bachmann, Herman, and Newt. He is actually more prone to unintended interview interpretations gaffes than Romney (for example, his famous Lawrence v. Texas comments were factually correct and lampooned even m ore than not being "concerned about the poor") and these will be dug up by the lefty media pretty soon.
But Santorum is a good human being, and an impossible national candidate.
Sep '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Western Chauvinist - Scope of government, that is, the peoples' relationship to their government, is the social issue, as made obvious by the HHS contraception mandate. Are we free citizens, or are we subjects of the giant nanny state? Santorum is suitably positioned to offer the choice to the people.
After listening to several speakers at last night's caucus refer to God, character, and the sanctity of life, I turned to my Hungarian-American neighbor and said, "the economy is very important, but the most important issue is the culture. Rick Santorum knows it." She agreed enthusiastically. · 15 minutes ago
Politics is a marker of culture. Culture is the key. Cutting spending while the illegitimacy rate remains around 40% just gives you lots of really poor people without safety net. We need someone who can articulate a defense for traditional values because without them, we're screwed.
May '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
The system's working, amazingly enough.
Santorum's a guy I never would have imagined as a serious foe for Obama early on, but I've come to be impressed. And as much as I admire Gov. Daniels and was convinced his call for toning down the social stuff was wise, it's possible Santorum's uber-Catholic persona might be right for the moment -- in an unexpected sort of way. Crazy.
We'll be OK with either of these two -- Rick or Mitt. Newt needs to drop out and give us a pristine choice, which I bet he'll do very soon since his purposes lately have been more about stopping Mitt than winning.
With this stuff going on, there's no need for sports.
Jun '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
This proves Katievs to be of a prophetic bent. She said it would come down to a Romney/Santorum battle. She convinced me and it now clearly appears to be true.
As bad as the night was for Mitt, Newt's was disastrous. Of course, he wasn't on the ballot in Missouri, and I have no idea if he has a natural constituency there. But he was a distant fourth in Minnesota (11%--where Paul beat both him and Romney) and third in Colorado (13 percent--where he beat Paul by 1 percent). I'm not predicting that Newt leaves the race, but Santorum has clearly replaced him as co-frontrunner along with Romney.
It's a while until the Missouri caucuses (which actually awards the delegates). It will be interesting to see if Romney's organization can make that closer.
We now have an interregnum until the 28th with AZ and MI, both of which one would think is Mitt territory. Then super-Tuesday the next week.
Curiouser and curiouser. No one should be bored.
May '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Duane: Would you be as confident in that prediction if Newt bows out in the next couple weeks?
The "smart, controlled, serious adult" nature of Santorum sets him apart from those others (Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Newt) in an important way (I think). And boomlets are less likely to burst in such a small field (again, I think).
Nov '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Good human beings are not impossible candidates.
Just because every liberal media and Hollywood figure hates Santorum with a white-hot passion doesn't mean that's what the country thinks. We tend to forget how much of America doesn't fit in with the hip Hollywood culture that we see on TV where New York, LA, wealth, urban life, environmentalism, fame, special effects, plastic surgery, youth, single people, secularism, and a gay character on every program is the mandatory currency.
Dec '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
The Cloaked Gaijin
Good human beings are not impossible candidates.
Just because every liberal media and Hollywood figure hates Santorum with a white-hot passion doesn't mean that's what the country thinks. We tend to forget how much of America doesn't fit in with the hip Hollywood culture that we see on TV where New York, LA, wealth, urban life, environmentalism, fame, special effects, plastic surgery, youth, single people, secularism, and a gay character on every program is the mandatory currency. · 1 minute ago
I admit to being a little freaked out because my FB newsfeed is littered with people (2008 Obama supporters admittedly) writing about how Santorum is Satan, or would be if they believed in that stuff. This is the university crowd, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican period, but I am unclear how Santorum appeals to the Tea Party crowd and independents, especially after his argument about gay marriage with a NH high school student, which didn't play well in my Ivy League college town.
Jun '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Scott Reusser
Duane: Would you be as confident in that prediction if Newt bows out in the next couple weeks?
The "smart, controlled, serious adult" nature of Santorum sets him apart from those others (Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Newt) in an important way (I think). And boomlets are less likely to burst in such a small field (again, I think). · 2 minutes ago
Agreed. The process, however painful, has revealed each of the previous front runners as flawed in a significant way. Santorum has his flaws, too, but fewer than most. What's clear now beyond dispute is that the base is still looking for the not-Romney. Godspeed you, Mr. Santorum. I guess it's time to open my wallet again.
Jan '12
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Right now Santorum looks appealing to many Republicans, but how will the people who will decide the election in the fall, the independents, regard him?
Apr '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Not well, I fear. He has gotten little attention up to now, but has a long history of statements that can be found scary or relentlessly mocked. He's better than Newt, and (unlike Newt) he's a good man and not a sleazeball, but I worry about his chances in the general.
Dec '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
I have a libertarian friend who is so libertarian he believes abortion has been good for society. He scoffs at Santorum, but I'm pretty sure, given the choice between Obama and Santorum, he's ABO. I think that'll be true for lots of independents as well.
Aug '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
I'm still not sure I believe the notion that the independents decide it all. If conservatives are still the single-largest ideological group, then obviously conservatives are the ones who decide it all. Why do candidates feel like they have to run to the center to win?
May '10
Re: David Defeats Goliath
James Of England
It's a good night for National Review, too. Whether it's Santorum or Romney, it's a National Review endorsed winner this race.
Well, all this shows is what anyone with a clear understanding of the Republican Party should already know. To the degree that the party is controlled by any group, it really comes down between the managerial types and the neo-con/social-con axis. The GOP leadership almost inevitably over the past decades comes from one of these two groupings, and limited government adherents are left to simply hope for a bone or two thrown their way in the process.
I can't say the Santorum victory thrills me too much. The remaining choice basically comes down to whether one is more willing to accept big government in the name of traditional social ideals, managerial expertise, or experimental pseudo-intellectualism. That or take a chance that Ron Paul is only serious on economics and doesn't actually mean anything else he says.
Dec '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
Now we'll see if Santorum can stand up to onslaught that comes with being a threat to Romney and Obama.
In my judgment, Santorum has three problems.
The first and most important is likability. He needs to be overly reasonable, modest, composed and unruffled in making his arguments and avoid appearing overwrought, angry, self-righteous, preachy and self-praising.
Second, many believe that he would ban contraceptives and put cameras in every bedroom. This is a deal breaker for moral libertarians, both liberal and conservative. They don't want anyone, especially government, judging them or telling them what to do. Santorum should make clear that his remedy is to appoint conservative judges that would rule that these issues should be decided the citizens, by state legislatures rather than by federal judges.
Third, he should state that he has leaned in talking with voters that they want government spending cut and all tax preferences and subsides eliminated. Thus he should propose freezing government spending at the '08 level and support a tax reform bill that impoves on Reagan's '86 tax reform.
These midcourse corrections would allow libertarians to "settle" for him and soothe the delicate sensibilities of the RINOs.
Aug '11
Re: David Defeats Goliath
By the way, PPP's polling was way off, wasn't it?
They had Romney winning by 10 in Colorado as recently as last Friday. They had Santorum winning in Minnesota by a smaller margin than he actually did, but they most certainly did not have Romney coming in a distant third behind Ron Paul.