Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Is anyone else beginning to think that Romney crushed it in the debate the other night based on nothing other than the fact that the Democrats are inexplicably focused on "binders of women" as their main campaign strategy this week?
In related news, The Hill reports:
Obama campaign ‘absolutely not’ giving up in Fla., NC, Va.
Of course, there's a lot of room between "completely giving up the ghost" and "stopping competitive efforts" in these states. That it's even being discussed is surprising. And the news that Jill Biden is being sent to Minnesota, of all places, can not be good for Team Obama.
Your daily update is below.
General Election:
(Rasmussen Tracking) Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2
Presidential Race by State:
Ohio: (Rasmussen Reports) Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Ohio: (SurveyUSA) Obama 45, Romney 42 Obama +3
Senate Race:
Ohio: (SurveyUSA) (D) Brown 43, (R) Mandel 38 Brown +5
Nevada: (Rasmussen Reports) (R) Heller 50, (D) Berkley 43 Heller +7
Nevada: (LVRJ/SurveyUSA) (R) Heller 46, (D) Berkley 40 Heller +6
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May '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
The "binders of women" meme has really gotten under my skin, and while I have not challenged any one of my Facebook friends' prissy posts on the subject, I did post the Clinton photo joke below.
What has surprised and delighted me is how many folks are "liking" this joke, which suggests to me that even among Obama supporters, the faux outrage over this innocuous statement has no real legs.
Oct '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Jim Geraghty mentions that some of the Minnesota areas also cover western Wisconsin, so this could be part of Obama's attempts to bolster him there.
That's just strange, though. If you're bolstering Wisconsin, why not just go to Wisconsin? What do you gain by doing both, unless there is some problem in Minnesota?
Jun '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
In related news, The Hill reports:
Pure bull. The possibilities are beginning to narrow to a handful. The Obama campaign is fighting a rear-guard action in states that were supposed to be solidly in their camp, PA and OH being the most prominent. MI is no sure thing either.
Jun '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
The RCP numbers show Minnesota leaning toward Obama. It's part of a national trend showing Obama losing support across the board. The Dems are holding on by their fingernails.
May '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Under the normal layer of paranoia I have, I think the bottom line is that each side can win on different levels. Obama won on some relative momentum level--he stopped doing a tailspin down and started simply diving. That change felt like a win for a little while.
Sep '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
New Wisconsin polling from Marquette University came out yesterday. This poll accurately predicted the Walker recall margin FWIW.
Two weeks ago..
Yesterday..
Feb '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
I can't fathom a scenario where a Republican prevails in the popular vote and loses a presidential election. But what do I know? It would be interesting to see whether states like California revisit their law regarding awarding electoral votes based on the popular vote were that to happen. (The states who have passed such laws have a trigger mechanism whereby it doesn't actually become the law until states with a total of 270 electoral votes also have the same basis for awarding their electoral votes.)
Mar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
I am coming around to the opinion that Romney might well *lose* Ohio, but still win the election, thanks to Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, etc.
Oct '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
That would be fitting, since this is the election cycle that has systematically destroyed conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom being that debates don't usually matter all that much, that long primary battles are bad, that the winner of the South Carolina primary goes on to win the nomination, and that no Republican can win the presidency without winning Ohio. I'm sure I forgot about a few other shattered pearls of conventional wisdom.
All the same, I'd prefer Romney won Ohio.
Apr '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Personally I am coming around to the Rahe hypothesis. Which is that Romney might just win this election and win it big. That would probably fly in the face of the conventional wisdom the most. Since everyone now seems to think it will be a close victory.
Dec '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Judging by the text book down the line social liberalism he is running as commercials here in central VA, he probably has given up.
Why oh why would he think that this would sell in the conservative part of the state? Unless he is just running generic left wing adds trying to energize what liberals are here. He isnt trying to persuade the socially conservative populists he could get here, like he did in 08.
Edited on October 18, 2012 at 6:27pmJul '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
I'd say the wheels are coming off. Paul Rahe will be proven correct.
Nov '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Here in Akron, OH the ads against Mandel are very effective, I'm sorry to say. Not that I'm a fan of Mandel, but I do want Rs to take the Senate.
May '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Over the last few weeks I have noticed my liberal friends rallying around memes but not arguments. If the best the Obama campaign can do is ridicule their opponents with snarky one-liners, they are in deep trouble (especially when the one-liners are about Big Bird and binders). Call it the John Stewart campaign. This approach is preaching to the choir while ignoring the real concerns of the unconverted.
Apr '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Dave Roy: Jim Geraghty mentions that some of the Minnesota areas also cover western Wisconsin, so this could be part of Obama's attempts to bolster him there.
That's just strange, though. If you're bolstering Wisconsin, why not just go to Wisconsin? What do you gain by doing both, unless there is some problem in Minnesota? · 29 minutes ago
Karl Rove also says it covers part of rural Iowa that Obama wants to reach, also.
However, the University of Colorado electoral model predicted that Romney would win Minnesota this year. Thought that was crazy at the time and I guess I still find it highly unlikely, but now...I don't know.
Jun '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Since Mitt Romney never had any binders full of porn DVDs, he doesn't get the joke like the Democrats do.
Jun '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
NC just flipped from toss-up to leans Romney in both the Rasmussen and RCP polls. Rasmussen shows Romney up by 6.
Mar '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
BO still running ads here in SE Michigan. They must still see MI as in play and are nervous.
Selfishly, I wish MI wasn't close so I wouldn't have to see BO and hear his voice.
Aug '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
Seriously, someone please explain to me why "binders full of women" is so bad. I kid you not, NBC Nightly News led off with it at the start of last night's broadcast! And yet they never explained why it was a "story", as if its horribleness were readily apparent! Is someone really suggesting that there was a prurient subtext to it? This is Mitt Romney we're talking about. If that's not the issue, then what is? Shouldn't liberals be delighted with affirmative action for women?
Re: Daily Poll Update: The Wheel Turns
I know I'm off the deep end when I have a semi-nightmare dream last night that Obama had once again taken a 2 pt lead in the polls. I think Mitt will win handily. Obama winning is just a dream... a bad one.