Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
California: SurveyUSA Obama 53, Romney 39 Obama +14
Colorado: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney +1
Florida: NBC/WSJ/Marist Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Michigan: Detroit News Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
Michigan: Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Nevada: Suffolk/KSNV Obama 47, Romney 45 Obama +2
New Jersey: Philadelphia Inquirer Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia Inquirer Obama 50, Romney 42 Obama +8
Virginia: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 51, Romney 46 Obama +5
Virginia: NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1
Wisconsin: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
Senate Races
California Senate: SurveyUSA (D) Feinstein 54, (R) Emken 35 Feinstein +19
Florida Senate: NBC/WSJ/Marist (D) Nelson 52, (R) Mack 39 Nelson +13
Michigan Senate: Detroit News (D) Stabenow 50, (R) Hoekstra 38 Stabenow +12
Nevada Senate: Suffolk/KSNV* (R) Heller 40, (D) Berkley 37 Heller +3
Ohio Senate: NBC/WSJ/Marist (D) Brown 52, (R) Mandel 41 Brown +11
Virginia Senate: NBC/WSJ/Marist (D) Kaine 47, (R) Allen 46 Kaine +1
Virginia Senate: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac (D) Kaine 51, (R) Allen 44 Kaine +7
Wisconsin Senate: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac (D) Baldwin 48, (R) Thompson 46 Baldwin +2
And if you're interested in all this polling, you must read Jay Cost's analysis of a curious change Gallup made to its methodology recently.
Swing photo via Shutterstock.
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Comments:
Nov '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
That NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio showing Obama +6 skews +11 Democrat, up from a +5 Democrat in their October 3 poll in which Obama was shown ahead +8. Thoughts?
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
The funny thing about me posting these each day is that I generally don't buy into polls. Perhaps it's the Austrian (economist) in me, but I am highly skeptical of our ability to capture voter sentiment.
And obviously the polling samples are all over the place. The idea that you'd pick more Dems for your poll sample in the last week strikes me as laughable. However, I haven't heard their explanation ...
Oct '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
Just +14 for Obama in California? Weak. Shouldn't that be at least +25?
Oct '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
The funny thing about me posting these each day is that I generally don't buy into polls. Perhaps it's the Austrian (economist) in me, but I am highly skeptical of our ability to capture voter sentiment.
And obviously the polling samples are all over the place. The idea that you'd pick more Dems for your poll sample in the last week strikes me as laughable. However, I haven't heard their explanation ... · 1 minute ago
I keep trying to remind myself that two weeks ago I was complaining bitterly about how the polls were skewed and near meaningless. Now that many polls are pointing towards Romney, are polls any less skewed? No, they're still skewed, as Copperfield points out. But I sure do love checking the RCP average several times a day now.
May '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
The only poll I care about is the one on election day- it counts.
I refuse to get excited when my guy is down nor do I when he is up in the polls.
However, I do revel in the incompetence of Obama and his people as it finally comes to the public light what we've seen for five or six years.
But, at the same time, I caution myself enough to worry that Obama will come out swinging in the next two debates in his own way. The results will not be so one-sided. This is far from over.
Sep '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
There was a clip on Drudge from Suffolk Unv. Research director who said they were not going to pole any more in FL, NC and VA and have given these states to Romney. After listening to it I came away thinking that most of the numbers they relied on were pre-debate. It was a short clip and I have not been able to find more info. Anybody have any info on this.
Dec '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
If Romney can crack 40% in California, he just might carry 44 or 45 states.
May '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
All these Swinging Polls are making me dizzy. At the track, it pays to watch how the horses are doing mid-race. But in politics, maybe not so much.
Aug '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
Lies, damned lies, and polls.
Oct '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
The Suffolk guy's last name is Paleologus. He said this while on Hannity a few days ago (Monday?).
Today's Rasmussen has Obama +1.
Jun '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
Some of the Senate race poll numbers (OH, FL) are disappointing and hopefully wrong. Without the Senate, Obamacare is here to stay.
Aug '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
I hope these polls are wrong. Does not look good. Despite being the worst president in history of this country, Obama seems to be winning. Depressing.
Jul '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
ted trepanier: The only poll I care about is the one on election day- it counts.
I refuse to get excited when my guy is down nor do I when he is up in the polls.
However, I do revel in the incompetence of Obama and his people as it finally comes to the public light what we've seen for five or six years.
But, at the same time, I caution myself enough to worry that Obama will come out swinging in the next two debates in his own way. The results will not be so one-sided. This is far from over. · 2 hours ago
Much as I understand your reserve, I am convinced that Romney will win, and win big. Just too many signs of it in the REAL world - not the polls. This country frequently acts stupidly - but not all the time. So polls be damned - I just don't care. I don't think they are relevant for anything but creating "discussion" for the various shows. Just like no one is courageous enough to come out and say that the unemployment numbers have been "jiggled" - other than Jack Welsh.
Aug '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
I am certain the constant drumbeat about the slippage being due to the debate performance is only a red herring . The American people probably don't care squat for that and just might be appalled at the height and depth of mendacity that the government has attained . They know the press is lying, they saw the Pres,SecState, Press Secy, and the UN Amb all lie about some silly youtube , they recognize the alarming coincidence of dropping unemployment numbers this close to an election, and they can smell the flopsweat that accompanies cartoon characters to the stage as a handpuppet ( which is a diversion to any child ).
The polls might be reflecting disgust rather than disappointment , distrust rather than depression , and an awakening rather than the somnambulance of the last four years.
Lord let it be so.
Oct '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
Romney back down to +.7.
Apr '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
Weirdly, Rasmussen is now using a D+5 sample.
Jul '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin'
On the Allen-Kaine race, it's interesting to suddenly see a poll showing it's tied again, which it was for six months, while the other poll still shows the +7 Kaine number that appeared from nowhere a month ago. For what it's worth, both this +1 Kaine poll and Allen's internal poll show him leading independents by 5 points, and Allen's internal poll actually has him up +3. I can buy the race being neck and neck, but that large jump for Kaine has always looked suspect to me.
Edited on October 12, 2012 at 1:51am