Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Mitt Romney is in a considerably stronger position in the polls than he was last week at this time. Here's the latest:
Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
Colorado: Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Virginia: PPP (D) Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
Iowa: Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Wisconsin Senate: PPP (D) Baldwin 49, Thompson 46 Baldwin +3
Florida Senate: WeAskAmerica Nelson 44, Mack 44 Tie
Virginia Senate: PPP (D) Kaine 51, Allen 44 Kaine +7
Ohio Senate: WeAskAmerica Brown 46, Mandel 44 Brown +2
Even just yesterday that Gallup Tracking poll had Romney behind by three points.
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Jan '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
I have not been following this race or heard much about it in the media I peruse, so can somebody please tell me what the Hell is the matter with George Allen?
Why is he running behind Romney in a race that was once considered no worse than a toss-up for the GOP?
Mar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
This is kind of a big deal in the Gallup numbers. A challenger always gets a small bounce after the first debate. Romney got a 5 point bounce. Gallup was Obama +5 before the debate. This could actually be the event that could start to swing the election to Romney. A five point move in basically 4 days is a real change.
Sep '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Now that Romney is surging, I believe the polls are completely fair and accurate. Remember all that stuff we were up in arms about with the polling in late September? Never mind...
Mar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
The polling could still stink, It is even better if the polls are over sampling Democrats and still showing a Romney surge.
Nov '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Looks good, but is better. Check out this on that Politico/GWU/Battlegroud poll. Lots of good news hiding under that +1 Obama number, but the best bit is this:
May '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Personally I have held the same opinion regarding polls for the better part of five months now. Many people who are being polled are indicating they will vote Obama in order not to appear racist or are simply nervous about recrimination even from a disembodied voice on the phone but when they enter the voting booth they will be pulling the lever (yes I know it's an outdated visual :-) ) for Mitt Romney. Hopefully I am not wrong.
Sep '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
Jul '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
I find this notion of polled voters not wanting to "appear racist" over the phone to be the most ludicrous fantasy for Republicans. On what evidence? Surge or not, the question ultimately to be answered by voters will be whether they willingly vote for a ticket that wishes to reduce their benefits and cut the welfare state. This isn't 1980.
Mar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
I think this may be right. Psychology studies say that you are more likely to honest with an unknown person over the phone, than with someone you are physically face to face with.
Dec '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
That it's still even possible for Obama to win reelection makes me weep for my nation.
Jul '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Freesmith: I have not been following this race or heard much about it in the media I peruse, so can somebody please tell me what the Hell is the matter with George Allen?
Why is he running behind Romney in a race that was once considered no worse than a toss-up for the GOP? · 51 minutes ago
I've been questioning those numbers since they started in mid-September and have yet to see an explanation for them. That race was 45-45 for six months, then, with nothing happening in that race, Kaine suddenly has a 6-9% lead in every poll for the last month. And that is despite Romney gaining on Obama in VA. Something doesn't add up.
Edited on October 8, 2012 at 7:21pmMar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Indeed so - but all is not lost - Ryan/Daffy Duck on Thursday.
Then two terms of Romney, two of Ryan, and two of Rubio - the American Dream lives on until the next Carter or Obama, when the young, who will have never heard of the previous Carter or Obama, repeat the same mistake.
Unless the education system improves.
May '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Jager
I think this may be right. Psychology studies say that you are more likely to honest with an unknown person over the phone, than with someone you are physically face to face with. · 26 minutes ago
See the Bradley Effect.
May '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
Obama is not leading anymore. A 3 point change in a poll with 3 points margin of error is nothing. It's noise. The margin of error is how much the answer could vary just by rerunning the same poll with a different random set of people to call.
So any poll within the margin of error, including all the polls listed above, just tells you "it's so close we can't determine who's ahead". I think we take that as good news, at this point.
Jul '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
RCP Average: Obama +1.1
Sep '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
One day the poles are fixed and they should be ignored. The next day they show movement for Romney and should be cheered. Not that is a consistent position. This is truly a marvelous country where people can make a living writing stuff like this and still be considered a journalist.
Nov '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Actually, it's a perfectly consistent position: the polls may be slanted toward the Democrats but move towards the Republicans. In other words, they are now reporting a statistical dead heat, when a true accounting might show a huge Romney advantage; perhaps, before, there was a real dead heat when the polls were reporting an Obama advantage.
Jul '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
Jager
I think this may be right. Psychology studies say that you are more likely to honest with an unknown person over the phone, than with someone you are physically face to face with. · 1 hour ago
While I can’t speak for others I know that I always misinform callers I do not know that get hold of me on the phone. Why should I tell unknown people that call me the truth about anything? I do the same for people that show up at my door asking questions. Knowledge is power that can be used against you, so why would you give it away?
Apr '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
I'm going to get jumped on for saying this, but the jobs report ended Romney's bounce. My heart sank when I went to the RCP averages for Obama's job approval just now- he is over 50% for all weekend polling, including Rasmussen and Gallup. Incumbents don't lose when they are at that level. Gallup shows Obama going back up over Romney by five points today, which is a combination of strong Obama days from before the debate, a swoon for a few days after the debates, and Obama jumping ahead again in weekend polling.
Edited on October 8, 2012 at 9:15pmJul '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up
I am not sure what everybody is getting excited for? All Romney did so far was one debate where he did not embarrass himself and Obama did. Granted it was a surprise since most thought that Obama would wipe the floor with Romney but it was only one debate. It is still a long way to the election and way too early to start the celebration.