Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
General Election:
(IBD/TIPP) Romney 45, Obama 47 Obama +2
(ABC News/Wash Post) Romney 49, Obama 48 Romney +1
(Rasmussen Reports) Romney 50, Obama 46 Romney +4
(Gallup) Romney 51, Obama 46 Romney +5
Presidential Race by State:
Connecticut: (Rasmussen Reports) Obama 52, Romney 45 Obama +7
Connecticut: (Quinnipiac) Obama 55, Romney 41 Obama +14
Massachusetts: (WBUR/MassINC) Obama 56, Romney 36 Obama +20
Minnesota: (Rasmussen Reports) Obama 51, Romney 46 Obama +5
Nevada: (ARG) Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: (ARG) Obama 47, Romney 49 Romney +2
New Hampshire: (Rasmussen Reports) Obama 48, Romney 50 Romney +2
Ohio: (Rasmussen Reports) Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
Ohio: (SurveyUSA) Obama 47, Romney 44 Obama +3
Senate Races:
Connecticut: (Quinnipiac) (D) Murphy 49, (R) McMahon 43 Murphy +6
Florida: (PPP (D)) (D) Nelson 45, (R) Mack 41 Nelson +4
Minnesota: (Rasmussen Reports) (D) Klobuchar 56, (R) Bills 33 Klobuchar +23
Massachusetts: (WBUR/MassINC) (D) Warren 50, (R) Brown 44 Warren +6
Ohio: (SurveyUSA) (D) Brown 43, (R) Mandel 42 Brown +1
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Comments:
Jul '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
Warren is up 6 points?! That clown? I understand that Mass. voters lean left, to put it mildly, but Warren? I guess Ann Coulter is right when she says that Romney was governor of North Korea...
Mar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
Ohio is looking like it will depend fully on turn out. The SurveyUSA poll is Democrat +7 and shows Obama +3. The only age group that Obama wins is 18-34, which is the group least likely to vote. IF Obama cannot turn out the "youth vote" he can not win.
This poll also shows Romney winning the Independents 47-39. For a poll that shows Obama in the lead, there is not a lot of good in the internals.
Jul '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
Romney has been at 50 in the Rasmussen Daily Tracker and Swing State for 3 or 4 days now (with Obama at 45 or 46). In fact, no matter what poll, I don't see Obama cracking 50 (save certain states). I don't believe anything can happen between now and election day to reverse the trend. I believe that Romney will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It's nice to be on the right side of a preference cascade for once.
Oct '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
I'm worried about this "Obama divorce papers" thing Trump is threatening. I see far more potential sympathy for Obama than anything else as a result than any benefit to Romney. ...Unless the papers allege that Obama forced Michelle to go to sex clubs, a la Jack Ryan, I guess... But seriously, who cares if Michelle wanted to divorce him 12 years ago?
Dec '10
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
I noticed that the Intrade numbers have been improving for Romney steadily.
May '12
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
Jager: Ohio is looking like it will depend fully on turn out. The SurveyUSA poll is Democrat +7 and shows Obama +3. The only age group that Obama wins is 18-34, which is the group least likely to vote. IF Obama cannot turn out the "youth vote" he can not win.
This poll also shows Romney winning the Independents 47-39. For a poll that shows Obama in the lead, there is not a lot of good in the internals. · 20 minutes ago
The whole OH thing is what has me stressed out about whether Romney can pull this out. It does seem though that while the RCP average for Ohio shows Obama up the trend has been moving toward Romney. It also seems like many pollsters are cooking the books to keep Obama ahead but when you look into the internals of most of these OH polls they seem to not support the topline results of Obama being ahead.
Don't know what to think. Worried I'm headed for the ledge Rob Long is starting to crawl off of. Can anyone make any of this make sense?
Mar '11
Re: Daily Poll Update: Ohio Tightens
Intrade is improving, the polls are improving and Nate Silver's model at the New York Times shows Obama's election chances improving slightly since October 16th. I am not sure what he is seeing that I am missing.