Countdown to Ames
As a denizen of Ames, Iowa, I feel it is my duty to report on the only major electoral event of the summer -- the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday, August 13.
For those who are not familiar, every 4 years (when a Republican president is not running for re-election), the Iowa Republican Party holds a straw poll at the Iowa State Center, which is the location of the Hilton Coliseum basketball arena and the Fisher Theater. Although Mitt Romney had a very lavishly-funded presence in 2007, he is skipping it this year, as has become de rigeur for the frontrunner. He would naturally underperform expectations because the Straw Poll is a time to test out new candidates. In addition, neither Perry nor Palin will attend, which may take a toll on revenues.
The event is a fundraiser for the state party and they cannot be happy that the big names will be absent. It explains why only official participants will have their names on the ballot and anyone who wants to vote for, say, Romney, Perry or Palin, will have to write-in their name. Each campaign has bid for the privilege to get a spot in the parking lot to set up their camp. Ron Paul's campaign will have the most prominent position, Thaddeus McCotter's will be second-most. Iowa residents can pay $30 for to cast a ballot, which is a donation to the IAGOP. Last time, it was $35 so you can tell that the Iowa GOP believes in the Laffer Curve.
It has the feel of a small-town fair and most of the candidates' areas will have goodies. A flyer that I received from Tim Pawlenty (he's sent a lot of direct mail over the past few months) says that he will be providing Famous Dave's barbecue and Dairy Queen products. He may not win the straw poll, but he does know how Iowans eat.
I suspect the Paul and Johnson campaigns will have more potent consumables but you probably have to know who to ask.
As we heard on the Hinderaker-Ward Experience, Michael Barone will be there, although both John Hinderaker and Brian Ward will be "working". Barone may find himself unable to do any proper reporting inasmuch as he'll probably be one of the more prominent celebrities there. I'm hoping for an autograph.
Ames is in central Iowa (it's very close to the literal geographic centroid of Iowa) and a mere 45 minutes' drive south, is the world-famous Iowa State Fair where you can get almost literally any food deep-fried on a stick. The weather is expected to be sunny with a high of 80 over the weekend as opposed to the creamy bisque that the Midwest has experienced recently.
Non-residents of Iowa cannot vote, but otherwise there are no restrictions to participation, including volunteering for a campaign. In addition, I wish to note that there are also no restrictions to bribing actual Iowa residents for their vote. None at all.
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Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
Yesterday and today, I got a robopoll from "Friends of Herman Cain". Three questions: who is your first choice (alphabetical list of declared candidates) if the caucus were held today? Who is your second choice (same list)? Are you planning to attend the straw poll?
A couple of weeks ago, I got a Rick Perry call and on Friday the 5th, I got a call from a very generic-sounding group.
Michele Bachmann has the most prominent TV and web ads. Pawlenty is doing direct mail and web ads pretty well.
May '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
Do you care to make a prediction on the results?
Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
Doesn't the Ames straw poll generally measure the committed base more than the party as a whole?
Re: Countdown to Ames
Care to live blog the event next weekend? Perhaps on a mobile device?
Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
I think people tend to make the mistake of focusing on the "winner". Bachmann will probably get a plurality of the votes just because there isn't anyone else who has a chance of winning and will excite the base. McCotter will probably break through just because I expect him to have the coolest booth (he's a musician). Here, "break through" means to get maybe 15%.
Gingrich will probably shut down his campaign after Ames. Maybe Herman Cain will too. Pawlenty will probably get enough support to justify going through to the caucus, but I think his campaign can't survive a Perry entry.
I would not be surprised if Romney gets a large write-in. Something tells me he would be able to get enough organization together to send some voters and then claim that he's exceeded expectations.
The whole thing is a bit overblown, but since it's the only real test of anything before the actual caucuses, it gets a lot of attention.
Edited on Aug 7, 2011 at 10:13pmDec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
Yes and no. In the old days, anybody could vote, but they found that people like Bob Dole, in nearby states, could just bus in tons of people to sway it.
Now, only Iowans can vote. In part, it measures how well a candidacy can bring a busload of people to Ames on a mid-August Saturday. A large number of the voters are paid by the campaign to travel and to vote (they cover the $30).
There are plenty of people like me, of course, who aren't attached to a campaign but that would mesh with standard polling.
Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
I'd love to try. It isn't easy. Like I said, it's like liveblogging a town fair, at least, after the speeches. A twitter-type thing might work best.
I have an iPhone but no tablet.
Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
Oh, yeah. Did I mention Ron Paul?
I didn't mean to.
Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
I'm seeing on Drudge that Perry is announcing his intentions on Saturday.
Ordinarily, that would mean he's not running. Who announces anything on a Saturday?
If he is running, then it's not a coincidence, in my opinion. He'll either crash the Straw Poll or he'll make the announcement so as to make himself the news story. Allies of his have polled me, that's for sure.
Dec '10
Re: Countdown to Ames
Couple of notes. Just today I got called (from a Georgia area code) by the Gingrich campaign asking if I would watch tonight's debate and what I wanted to be discussed. I didn't probe deeper into the conversation. I had the awkward feeling that if I'd said that I wanted the candidates to discuss how much Howard Stern rules!!!! that's what I'd hear from Gingrich tonight.
I also got a call from the Pawlenty campaign asking about the straw poll. I indicated a tepid support for T-Paw, they asked if there was anything they could do to persuade me further and reminded me that they'd pay for the $30 ticket (standard operating procedure).
It's interesting because it suggests they don't have enough of their people to spend the $30 on.