Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
| Frozen Chosen: While I can understand you concerns, professor, I do not agree that a candidate who strongly advocates first principles would win this election handily. At best there is maybe 20-25% of the country who understand these concepts. There are another 15-20% who can be counted on to consistently vote conservative. There are also 40-45% of the country who will consistently vote for either liberal/socialist ideas or goodies from the trough. That leaves about 10% of the country who vote on things like physical appearance and MSM headlines. Saying we just need to articulate conservative ideas better and we would have 60-70% of the country on our side is naive. This country is far less conservative now than it was in 1980. The only reason the GOP has a chance this election is because Obama's sudden, severe lurch to the left has spooked the middle 20%. If the Dems were smart enough to play the incremental game Obama would be reelected in a landslide. Our culture is in severe decline, the family is disintegrating, our schools indoctrinate our children with secular theology - not exactly a recipe for conservative resurgence. Let's not kid ourselves. · 1 hour ago |
I quote Frozen Chosen here because I believe that he poses a question that is well worth thinking about and because he represents a view that is commonly held within conservative ranks. I also think that he is in part correct: Our culture really is in severe decline, the family is disintegrating, and our schools indoctrinate our children with secular theology. It is, I believe, the worst of times. And because of that it is the best of times, for it provides us with the perfect recipe for a conservative resurgence. It is the ideal moment for a man of courage and high principle to step forward and say, "The Emperor has no clothes." And, no, I am not kidding myself.
Consider what Barack Obama has done. He has unmasked the tyrannical potential of the administrative entitlements state, and he has once again demonstrated the defects inherent in Keynesian economics. He promised us that the stimulus would bring unemployment down dramatically. He acknowledged that if it did not do so he would be unelectable. He attacked religious liberty, attempting through a court case to interfere with a Lutheran church's ability to choose its own religious teachers as it saw fit, and threatening to make Roman Catholics, the Roman Catholic Church, and Christians and Jews who regard abortion as murder complicit with that act by forcing them to pay for abortifacients. He jammed through Congress a bill designed to undermine the health insurance industry and to institute healthcare rationing. He brought our government to the edge of fiscal insolvency. At a time of rising energy costs, he blocked the building of a pipeline that would bring petroleum from our northern neighbor and friend Canada to the United States and reduce our dependence on the Middle East.
In short, Barack Obama is forcing the American people to rethink the relationship that connects them with their government. Where many of them once saw a helping hand, they now see a threat to their livelihood, their personal and religious liberty, and their well-being more generally. A majority of Americans favor a repeal of Obamacare -- the President's signature achievement. A majority favor serious cuts in government expenditures. Most think that the President should not be re-elected. We are watching a near perfect storm. Barack Obama and his administration make Americans long for the good old days when they lived under Jimmy Carter and his administration.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan showed what can be done, and he did not eke out a victory. He won a landslide, and for the first time in decades more people voted for Republican candidates running for House seats than for Democratic candidates. Reagan even took Massachusetts, and he did not run as a moderate. He promised and he delivered radical change -- first and foremost, the end of punitive taxation.
One could argue that the country is more liberal today than it was in 1980. But that is demonstrably false. Look at the midterm elections in 2010. In them -- running as conservatives, promising to repeal Obamacare, and pledging to cut government expenditures in a severe fashion -- the Republicans won a landslide. They took the House; they made major gains in the Senate. At the state level, they gained a degree of leverage that they had not seen since 1928.
Frozen Chosen, you underestimate our compatriots. They know that our culture is in severe decline, that the family is disintegrating, that our schools indoctrinate our children with secular theology -- and they know whom to blame. All that it would take to turn the present discontents into a realignment would be for a forthright woman or man able to point out the connection linking cultural decline, family disintegration, and political correctness in the schools -- not to mention massive unemployment and fiscal insolvency -- with the administrative entitlements state and the doctrine that it is the responsibility of the government and not the individual citizen to make provision for his well-being.
People rally to strength and confidence, not to weakness and timidity. This is what President Obama once called "a teachable moment." It is a time in which the despotic character of our democracy's drift is visible. In such circumstances, a Republican could say something very much like what Franklin Delano Roosevelt said at the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia in 1936: “Philadelphia is . . . fitting ground on which to reaffirm the faith of our fathers; to pledge ourselves to restore to the people a wider freedom . . . That very word freedom, in itself and of necessity, suggests freedom from some restraining power.”
Where, in 1776, Americans had “sought freedom from the tyranny of a political autocracy,” Roosevelt on that occasion urged them to seek liberty from “economic royalists” who had “created a new despotism” in which “a small group had concentrated into their own hands an almost complete control over other people’s property, other people’s money, other people’s labor – other people’s lives.” “For too many of us,” he charged, come 1932, “life was no longer free; liberty no longer real; men could no longer follow the pursuit of happiness.”
I cited this material in a blogpost, and I concluded: "In my judgment, Roosevelt’s rhetoric — or something very much like it — deserves revival, for the argument that he disingenuously advanced on behalf of state control can now in all honesty be deployed against it. We really are governed now by a small group intent on concentrating into their own hands an almost complete control over other people’s property, other people’s money, other people’s labor – other people’s lives. And for the first time in my lifetime Americans are waking up to the threat."
I posted this claim on Powerline on 2 August 2009 -- more than a year before the great Republican victory in the mid-term elections of 2010. Nothing has changed to make me think otherwise now. If anything, the crisis that I discerned then has ripened further. I would not be shocked if a timid, milquetoast managerial progressive were able to eke out a victory in the Presidential election in 2012. To win a landslide, however, one must do what FDR did: one must appeal to first principles. One must indict those intent on creating “a new despotism” in which “a small group" is concentrating "into their own hands an almost complete control over other people’s property, other people’s money, other people’s labor – other people’s lives.”
Frozen Chosen, if you really want to do something about the fact that "our culture is in severe decline, the family is disintegrating, [and] our schools indoctrinate our children with secular theology," you have to take the bull by the horns. As Margaret Thatcher once said to George W. H. Bush, "This is no time to go wobbly, George."
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Apr '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
To be read repeatedly, until memorized.
Aug '10
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
A couple of quick points;
May '10
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
I think there is a difference of opinion regarding the term "genuine conservative", as well as a difference of view over how many of the King's Subjects want to work or would prefer to get free stuff. My "box" is a bit more expansive than those of most here.
I consider a "genuine conservative" one whose actions are directed toward the solution that offers the most systemic freedom long term, not the Ayn Rand school model. If someone who has an 80% ACU rating is not considered a conservative here, even while the most centrist Democrat is less than 50%, I think we have lost our perspective, make that our grip on reality.
If Ronald Reagan had succeeded in tearing down major portions of the welfare state, I might see things differently. He didn't.
Mar '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
Paul A. Rahe
As Margaret Thatcher once said to George W. H. Bush, "This is no time to go wobbly, George."
Or Rob, or James (Delingpole and Poulos), who seem to be convinced of a victory by Mr Obama.
This is why I listen to Mr Limbaugh, who every day makes the same point as Prof Rahe - it keeps me optimistic (slightly - I can easily sink into Frozen Chosen's point of view).
It's why I voted for Mr Santorum, as the most conservative person left in the race.
And if Mr Romney wins the nomination I will cheerfully vote for him in the General, as the most conservative person left in the race.
Edited on March 13, 2012 at 10:52pmApr '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
If this is the case, then why do Obama's approval numbers perpetually hover so close to 50% at a time of 8%+ unemployment and high gas prices?
As for the "Reagan won a landslide by being a principled conservative and convincing the public" myth, Reagan himself was well aware that if those hostages had been released before the first Tuesday in November 1980, we would not today be discussing any "Reagan Revolution."
Feb '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
Sounds like the perfect case for a "severe conservative."
Feb '12
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
The accomplished businessman would have been in office for who knows how many years had he been able to win a senate race and had he not declined to run for re-election as governor in order to avoid defeat. Never before have I seen repeated electoral failure touted as a virtue. Romney might truly say, "I wanted to have a second career as a politician, but I couldn't win more than one election."
Around the time Romney was plaintively saying in 1994 that he wasn't a Reagan Republican, Santorum was working on welfare reform, voting against tax increases and in favor of tax cuts, and arguing for partial privatization of Social Security.
If we're going to take Romney's claims at face value, let's give more credence to Santorum's deepening conservatism - e.g., his apology for supporting NCLB and his criticism of interference in education by both the national and state governments.
Edited on March 13, 2012 at 11:04pmMay '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
wmartin: If this is the case, then why do Obama's approval numbers perpetually hover so close to 50% at a time of 8%+ unemployment and high gas prices?
As for the "Reagan won a landslide by being a principled conservative and convincing the public" myth, Reagan himself was well aware that if those hostages had been released before the first Tuesday in November 1980, we would not today be discussing any "Reagan Revolution." · 2 minutes ago
Plain and simple this election is a referendum on Obama. It always been that way in incumbent elections.
Dec '10
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
If Conservatives believe that the only way they can get elected is by hiding who they are, then they will figure that the only way they can stay in office is by governing as Liberals.
I'll say this much for President Obama: while he blatantly lies about wanting to govern from the center, he can't bring himself to govern as anything but the Progressive that he is in his heart of hearts. That's at least a kind of honesty.
The old saying goes, "If you don't stand for something, you'll stand for anything." I prefer to vote for a Santorum or Gingrich who, whatever their past failings, at least always proudly declared that their hearts are with Conservatism, than for Romney, who has been more flexible in his declarations about where and with whom he stands.
Apr '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
thelonious
wmartin: If this is the case, then why do Obama's approval numbers perpetually hover so close to 50% at a time of 8%+ unemployment and high gas prices?
As for the "Reagan won a landslide by being a principled conservative and convincing the public" myth, Reagan himself was well aware that if those hostages had been released before the first Tuesday in November 1980, we would not today be discussing any "Reagan Revolution." · 2 minutes ago
Plain and simple this election is a referendum on Obama. It always been that way in incumbent elections. · 18 minutes ago
Exactly, As was the case in 1980. That election was a referendum on Jimmy Carter; we did not win it because the public heard Reagan's eloquent case for conservative principles and then said "Yes, I see the light!" George H. W. Bush would probably have won by a larger margin.
Aug '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
I think Americans are prone to optimism. Our forbears were crazy enough to leave the comfort and security of family to come here and pursue their dreams. This takes no small amount of gumption and self confidence. That being said, we are also less likely to be cynical, so we take others at their words and intentions. President Obama may be misguided and he may not be frank when he speaks of his real intent, nonetheless, we wish him success and allow him broad leeway in his leadership. We want to be proud of our president and with Obama, there are things with which we can be proud. These feelings, however, do not necessarily carry over into our opinion of his policies and his so called achievements. Liking Obama does not correlate with re-electing Obama. We can like him and abhor his presidency simultaneously. So take his polling numbers with a large dose of salt.
Feb '12
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
I don't think the country is that more conservative today than it was in 1980; but there are many more people that depend on the government for their livelihood. That makes me very pessimistic!
A simple question that Prof. Rahe will be able to answer in a second: How many colleges do not depend on the government for their well-being? ;) So, to paraphrase a famous book title - What's wrong with Texas A&M?
Apr '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
Paul A. Rahe
In 1980, Ronald Reagan showed what can be done, and he did not eke out a victory. He won a landslide, and for the first time in decades more people voted for Republican candidates running for House seats than for Democratic candidates. Reagan even took Massachusetts, and he did not run as a moderate. He promised and he delivered radical change -- first and foremost, the end of punitive taxation.
Reagan endorsed the New Deal. He expanded Medicare in an unprecedented way. As governor, he doubled spending and as President he continued to borrow and spend at an astonishing pace.
Reagan was strong, rock solid, on defense and taxes. He was moderate on judges. He was terrible on spending and the Constitution (Liz Dole expanded federal power more than anyone since FDR). Policy aside, he was an amazing person, decent and charismatic.
Romney's strong, rock solid, on spending, and is good on entitlement reform. Judge Bork thinks he'll be our best yet on judges, continuing a consistent trend since Ford, he's got a solid grasp of the Constitution, and he fervently believes in defense; who knows? He's an accomplished person, decent if less charismatic.
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
The answer is that you have your facts wrong. The latest CBS poll has his approval at 41%, and much of that is soft. Take a look at Rasmussen and the gap between the percentage who strongly approve and those who strongly disapprove.
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
Duane Oyen: I think there is a difference of opinion regarding the term "genuine conservative", as well as a difference of view over how many of the King's Subjects want to work or would prefer to get free stuff. My "box" is a bit more expansive than those of most here.
I consider a "genuine conservative" one whose actions are directed toward the solution that offers the most systemic freedom long term, not the Ayn Rand school model. If someone who has an 80% ACU rating is not considered a conservative here, even while the most centrist Democrat is less than 50%, I think we have lost our perspective, make that our grip on reality.
If Ronald Reagan had succeeded in tearing down major portions of the welfare state, I might see things differently. He didn't. · 46 minutes ago
In Reagan's day, we never controlled the House of Representatives. In any case, for obvious reasons, his main focus was foreign policy. You underestimate the significance of what he did with regard to taxation.
Apr '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
If Reagan had run on repealing the New Deal, he'd have lost; the Reagan Democrats didn't undergo 180 degree conversions and were key to his success. If he'd been a budget trimmer, focused on the deficit like Bush 41 was, he'd have won re-election by a good deal less. Of course we should stand by our principles, and we should fight with all our might to save America and the world. That means different things to different people. Reagan wasn't an uncomplicated conservative, and he accomplished a lot more for conservatism through his impure successes than he would have through brilliant defeat.
Sep '10
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
I think limited government conservative ideas are markedly superior to collective ideology. I further think that if these ideas are articulated effectively most will conclude they are. My problem with the GOP is that it consistently pays lip service to these ideas, but seldom consistently articulates them and almost never follows them once elected. Reagan is so frequently written of because there have been so few worth writing about since. If 25% or less understand these concepts certainly the GOP is the primary reason why. I would suggest however a better question is: Would the GOP ever nominate a genuine conservative? No chance in 2012 and if the GOP wins it will be at least 2020 unless there is a 3rd party bid.
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
wmartin
thelonious
Plain and simple this election is a referendum on Obama. It always been that way in incumbent elections. · 18 minutes ago
Exactly, As was the case in 1980. That election was a referendum on Jimmy Carter; we did not win it because the public heard Reagan's eloquent case for conservative principles and then said "Yes, I see the light!" George H. W. Bush would probably have won by a larger margin. · 9 minutes ago
I do not think that you understand electoral politics very well. Yes, elections like this one are a referendum on the incumbent, but his opponent must seem attractive, and timidity and weakness attract no one. People voted for Reagan because he indicted policies that had failed and proposed alternatives. There was a sea-change in public opinion -- and when Bill Clinton tried to reverse the course set by Reagan in 1993 and 1994 he got clobbered, and we won Congress.
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
Wrong, James. In one crucial regard, Reagan did run on repealing the New Deal: tax policy! Had gerrymandering not prevented the Republicans from taking the House, you would have seen the cuts as well.
Apr '11
Re: Could a Genuine Conservative Win in 2012?
Paul A. Rahe
The answer is that you have your facts wrong. The latest CBS poll has his approval at 41%, and much of that is soft. Take a look at Rasmussen and the gap between the percentage who strongly approve and those who strongly disapprove. · 8 minutes ago
I look at the Real Clear Politics average every single day. Obama consistently averages between 44% and 48%. I am very skeptical of Rasmussen polls and think its wiser to look at the average and at Gallup.