Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
I'll admit it, I was a T-Paw guy relatively early in the process, so I'm a little biased here. As the GOP continues to struggle to find its Not Romney, the available candidates seem to come up short. I think this raises the plausible hypothetical of whether or not Pawlenty could have gotten any traction in an environment like this.
Pawlenty, of course, got his chance to be Not Romney last summer, but completely blew it by flubbing the Obamneycare line at one debate. After the point, his campaign fizzled out until he left the race following the Ames Straw Poll and endorsed Romney. At the moment, we have the former Massachusetts governor who, we are told, is very conservative if you ignore everything he has said or done for the past twenty years, a controversial former Speaker with a Nancy Pelosi ad spot, the obligatory very pro life candidate, and Ron Paul. Each one has too many flaws in too many areas for a large bloc of the party to be comfortable with.
Pawlenty, of course, is hardly as conservative they come, and there were aspects of his career as governor that I wasn't entirely comfortable with. The allegations of "big governmentism" that came his way in his few debates, however, I thought were incredibly weak in comparison to the ones that can be directed at Romney and Gingrich.
I think it might be plausible that had he stayed in past the summer, he might have gotten a real shot at being the real Not Romney. He is an even-tempered former governor who, although he certainly does not check off all of the right boxes dyed in the wool conservatives look for, checks off far fewer of the negative boxes. Even if I might not be happy with every aspect of his record on healthcare when he was governor, he certainly doesn't create the impression that he has a severe sincerity gap. More importantly, there were no nasty divorces, or, that we know of now, weird friends who write questionable newsletters.
There is also a legitimate point to be made that if you can't stick it to Mitt Romney in your own party's debate, you could well come up short against Red China or North Korea. Nonetheless, I think this could be an interesting counter-factual.
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Dec '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Pawlenty had one basic test to pass at the outset of the campaign: prove that he could say to Romney's face what he said about Romney in his stump speech. His utter refusal to do so came off as a lack of spine.
Then he set himself a second test, a completely meaningless one: he had to win the Ames straw poll to stay in the race. The Ames straw poll is a meaningless distraction, and yet there's where he chose to make his last stand. That was a horrible failure of judgment as a Presidential campaigner.
Given that he'd shown lack of backbone and lack of judgment, it's maybe not such a bad thing that he threw in the towel so hastily.
(And you people say Sarah Palin is a quitter? Please.)
Jun '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Stuart Creque,
Ditto. You wrote everything I was going to write, and more clearly than I would've.
Dec '11
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Tim who?
Sep '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
I don't know much about Tim Pawlenty, but I am becoming a student of the Republican establishment.
They like to narrow the field and have ONE candidate, and they like a lot of anti-establishmnet candidates to split the conservative vote in the primary. So they line up behind the next guy, and I suspect, apply various forms of pressure upon these second-tier moderates before they do damage.
"Don't rock the boat, Tim, we have our guy."
Dec '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Franco: I don't know much about Tim Pawlenty, but I am becoming a student of the Republican establishment.
They like to narrow the field and have ONE candidate, and they like a lot of anti-establishmnet candidates to split the conservative vote in the primary. So they line up behind the next guy, and I suspect, apply various forms of pressure upon these second-tier moderates before they do damage.
"Don't rock the boat, Tim, we have our guy." · 7 minutes ago
I disagree: look at the immense pressure on Perry to enter the race. Apparently there is a second Republican Establishment that didn't want Romney and drafted Perry.
Now, did BOTH those Establishment whisper in Pawlenty's ear in the way you describe? Perhaps. Or perhaps Pawlenty never expected that he'd have to repeat the word "Obamneycare" in the presence of Mitt Romney, and when the moment came he lost his nerve.
Sep '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Stuart Creque
Franco: I am becoming a student of the Republican establishment.
They like to narrow the field and have ONE candidate, and they like a lot of anti-establishmnet candidates to split the conservative vote in the primary. So they line up behind the next guy, and I suspect, apply various forms of pressure upon these second-tier moderates before they do damage.
I disagree: look at the immense pressure on Perry to enter the race. Apparently there is a second Republican Establishment that didn't want Romney and drafted Perry.
Now, did BOTH those Establishment whisper in Pawlenty's ear in the way you describe? Perhaps. Or perhaps Pawlenty never expected that he'd have to repeat the word "Obamneycare" in the presence of Mitt Romney, and when the moment came he lost his nerve. ·
I think your comment was right, I was one of your likes. But I also think a) the establishment is not entirely monolithic, there likely are different factions. Generally I am just noting a pattern I see. Why did so many Republican moderates stay out, or drop out of the race so early? I'm not especially invested in this suspicion, just sayin'.....
Oct '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Will disaffected Republicans ever stop fantasizing about woulda-shoulda-coulda candidates?
If you didn’t go to the dance or left early, the pretty girl is with someone else. Get over it.
Edited on Jan 23 at 12:14amDec '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
HVTs: Will disaffected Republicans ever stop fantasizing about woulda-shoulda-coulda candidates?
If you didn’t go to the dance or left early, the pretty girl is with someone else. Get over it. · 2 minutes ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
Lennie went behind the tree and brought out a litter of dried leaves and twigs. He threw them in a heap on the old ash-pile and went back for more and more. It was almost night now. A dove's wings whistled over the water. George walked over the fire pile and lighted the dry leaves. The flame cracked up among the twigs and fell to work. George undid his bindle and brought out three cans of beans. He stood them about the fire, close in against the blaze, and not quite touching the flame.
"There's enough beans for four men," George said.
Lennie watched him from over the fire. He said patiently, "I like 'em with ketchup."
"Well, we ain't got any," George exploded. "Whatever we ain't got, that's what you want."
Mar '11
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Probably not.
If Mr Pawlenty were a fighter like Newt he would still be in the race. And Mr Ryan and Mr Daniels would have gotten in the race. It tells us a lot about the Republican party, which has been found sadly lacking, and is now pushing Mr Romney on us.
Sure, Newt has a giant ego, but that is maybe what is required to go through media hell to get to the White House. The present resident is not known for his small ego, either - though his is much smoother and well-disguised (and he doesn't have to battle the media).
Edited on Jan 23 at 2:50amMay '11
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Yes, He could/should have.
He destroyed himself in that first Iowa debate by a kamikazi personal attack on Michelle Bachmann, as much as by his manic attack on Romneycare.
It seemed like he was placing too much emphasis on Iowa. To win, he would need to do two things: beat Bachmann as the local candidate; and beat Romney as the moderate governor candidate. He got desperate.
Imagine, instead, he had taken the approach of complimenting Bachmann's performance as a lone voice of conservatism in the Pelosi House, just as Gingrich had been in the early Clinton Administration. More subtly, he could emphasize his good executive experience over their good legislative experience. When their campaigns imploded, he could have been there to pick up the pieces. Newt's comeback was, in part, facilitated by the fact that when his campaign imploded, there was nobody there to pick up the pieces and hold onto them.
May '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
No way T-Paw was going to beat Bachmann appealing to the types of voters who actually think that Newt's temper tantrum against John King was some sort of seminal moment of courage rather than what it was, and who abandon all semblance of free market principles in going ga-ga over Newt based on rhetoric rather than policy and executive substance.
Pawlenty's refusal to attack Romney in that debate was based on the principle that the correct answer was too complicated for a 30 second prattle. The goal was to attack Obama and lefty policies, not each other except regarding variations from basic fundamentals of conservative personal responsibility and free-markets.
Thus, ask any candidate why she/he didn't accomplish anything while in office. Ask Romney why he accepted both stupid coverage mandates and an individual mandate- fair game. Ask Pawlenty why he bought the global warming crisis Kool-Aid and his cigarette "health impact fee". Ask Gingrich why he lobbied for Freddie, bought the global warming crisis Kool-Aid, and supported both RomneyCare and the individual mandate.
But unless you are an unprincipled scoundrel, don't attack free market principles or take personal cheap shots.
Jun '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Early on, I liked both Pawlenty and "It's still not too late" Mitch Daniels. It's always intriguing to do counter-factuals, but I wish Pawlenty had stayed in--he sure seemed like a classy guy. I have a feeling he's kicked himself a few times.
Dec '10
Re: Could (Or Should) Pawlenty Have Stayed in?
Franco
Stuart Creque
I disagree: look at the immense pressure on Perry to enter the race. Apparently there is a second Republican Establishment that didn't want Romney and drafted Perry.
Now, did BOTH those Establishment whisper in Pawlenty's ear in the way you describe? Perhaps. Or perhaps Pawlenty never expected that he'd have to repeat the word "Obamneycare" in the presence of Mitt Romney, and when the moment came he lost his nerve. ·
I think your comment was right, I was one of your likes. But I also think a) the establishment is not entirely monolithic, there likely are different factions. Generally I am just noting a pattern I see. Why did so many Republican moderates stay out, or drop out of the race so early? I'm not especially invested in this suspicion, just sayin'.....
I think we're now agreeing: some Establishment types wanted Pawlenty out in favor of Romney, others in favor of Perry... no doubt some were behind Pawlenty as well, but not aggressively enough to keep him in (i.e., to keep donating after Ames).