Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Adam Freedman ·
November 12, 2012 at 4:16am
Greetings all. Well, of course I'm disappointed about the election, but I think that some of the apocalyptic comments on the site and even the Editors' podcast (Rob...) are missing the forest for trees. Here's my take:
- It Wasn't a Blowout. Although Obama had a strong finish in the Electoral College, he won the popular vote by a mere 2 percent, the first president to be re-elected with a smaller margin than his initial election since 1916. Hardly a blowout -- despite an adoring media chorus, a phalanx of union organizers, and a multi-million dollar effort to terrify voters about Romney.
- Obama's Re-election Does Not Prove That We've Become a "Center-Left" Nation. The presidential election wasn't about ideas, period. To the extent Obama mentioned issues, he campaigned on the claim that he is a tax-cutter, by taking credit for private oil and gas exploration, and by endlessly spiking the football on Bin Laden. Nor did Romney end up articulating conservative principles. His selection of Paul Ryan gave us hope that he would, but in the end, Ryan's ideas were sidelined. Obama won by negative campaigning and tawdry "identity politics." No question, this is a wake-up call for the GOP to rethink its electoral strategy at the national level, but it does not mean that a majority of Americans have actually decided "oh yes, I'd like to be European, thank you."
- The GOP is Not a Damaged Brand. Republicans held on to the House with nearly the same majority as 2010's historic election. The GOP picked up a governorship, now holding 30 governor's mansions. The GOP fully controls 27 state legislatures, as compared to 19 where the Democrats control both houses.
- Conservative Ideas are Still Winning. As I said, Obama didn't win re-election by advocating transformational left-wing change. He pretended to be a centrist. He defended ObamaCare, but with the usual blather about how the law will actually cut the deficit. Unions lost ballot measures in Michigan and Washington State. The Wisconsin GOP took both houses, despite the demonizing of Scott Walker. Gay marriage? So a couple of blue states voted for gay marriage. That's after 32 defeats at the ballot box, and most states are nowhere close to legalizing it. But even if there is a trend toward gay marriage, it doesn't matter at the national level. At the national level, the principled conservative response is: this is a state issue. If a state wants to legalize same-sex marriage, so be it. The federal government won't interfere. Which reminds me: under Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party doubled its vote from four years ago (I wouldn't vote Libertarian for tactical reasons, but again, I don't accept the idea that this election proves that Americans are embracing European-style social democracy).
So be of good cheer, conservatives. We lost an election -- a big one, to be sure -- but Americans have not turned their back on the Constitution, conservatism, or the GOP. The Republican Party has some serious tactical work ahead of it, but with relatively modest inroads among Hispanics, blacks, and single women, it can recapture the White House and Senate.
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Comments:
Sep '11
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Yes! Thank You! Many here seem ready to throw themselves off a cliff; we need all the help we can get to talk them back from the ledge. :)
Jun '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Great post. Another reason to be optimistic is we have a GREAT group of potential candidates for 2016: Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, Paul Ryan, Brian Sandoval and others. Cheer up!!
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Good point - a deep bench of talent and, significantly, a "multi-cultural" bench.
Oct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
"It wasn't a blowout?" Really?? We should take comfort in that fact? It should have been a blowout...for the GOP!!! Center-left or -right, damaged brand, winning ideas - the fact that these are the points you raise tells me that we still cannot see the forest for the trees. It doesn't matter where the center is, it doesn't matter what the brand issues are, it doesn't matter what ideas we have - if we can't communicate directly with the American people, nothing else matters!
When has the Republican Party ever demonstrated the ability to execute "serious tactical work?" 2010 was thanks to the Tea Party, NOT the GOP. The Republican Party's tactics gave us Dole in 1996, the ignominy of 2006, McCain in 2008, and though I admire and respect Mitt, he is not a conservative and thus was not the best Republican to advocate for conservatism in articulate and convincing terms.
So yeah, there's tactical work ahead for the GOP. That's why it's over. Because they'll ignore the most important tactic of all - changing the communication and media paradigm.
Edited on November 12, 2012 at 4:40amOct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
What the hell does it matter who's on our bench?? Who gives a flying how multicultural we are? We already ARE deep and multicultural. The GOP has a long, long history of breaking barriers before the Democrat Party. But who knows this? NO ONE! And so the media will decide how that bench is presented to the voting public. Doesn't anyone anywhere get it??? "Potter isn't selling - he's buying!!"
Until and unless WE control OUR message and disseminate it directly to the American people,nothing else matters.
Aug '12
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
While I too think it should have been a blowout for the GOP, I think it appropriate to remember that, as John Pitney, Jr. pointed out in September, it was always a slight advantage Obama. And lo and behold, it was a slight win Obama. We ran Generic Republican, we got Generic Republican results.
Oct '12
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
If Republicans are not ready to admit that there is a problem with the 'brand,' it's only going to get worse.
I meet people all the time who will "never" vote republican. And they cannot even articulate why. This is part of that demographic problem.
The good news is that the reaction is so content-free, more of these people may be persuadable purely on principles. But conservatives are starting with a huge handicap.
Oct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
From the column you cited: "If Romney runs a stronger campaign in the weeks ahead, and if the president makes some mistakes of his own, then the contest will be a tossup."
What?? We have $16 trillion of debt, multi-year trillion dollar deficits, no budgets for 3 years, 23 million on food stamps and growing, 15% real unemployment, foreign policy impotence, national security disasters, sky-high gas prices, a moribund housing market...and it's ONLY a "tossup" IF Romney runs stronger and Obama makes some mistakes. Well, Romney DID run stronger and Obama certainly DID make mistakes.
And we STILL lost.
I'm beating a dead horse, but with all of that baggage a syphilitic camel should've won. If we only do ONE thing, it should be to change the media paradigm. And yet that's the one thing no one on the Right is talking about.
It is over.
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Daniel, there's been a hardening of party affiliation on both sides. There are just as many people who will "never" vote Democrat (well, me, come to think of it). And dittohead, yes, some valid points. But good heavens, still too gloomy for me. Please avoid bridges and tall buildings for a few weeks!
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Sabrdance - agreed. Many of us in the echo chamber allowed ourselves to get over-confident, but Obama simply held on to the edge he had throughout.
Oct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Daniel Jeyn:I meet people all the time who will "never" vote republican. And they cannot even articulate why.
The good news is that the reaction is so content-free, more of these people may be persuadable purely on principles.
Persuadable how? Persuadable how? By what means? If their thoughts are content-free, why is that? It's not like the GOP lives under a rock. We all know conservative principles and ideals. So why don't they? And how can that be changed? That last question is the only question the Right/the GOP should be trying to figure out today. The only one.
Mar '11
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
We won't change their minds by shouting at them, that's for sure.
Oct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Adam, it sounds gloomy. But that's because it's realistic. Someone's got to say it. I'll never "take one for the team," at least not that way, so tall buildings are no threat! :-)
All seriousness aside, sometimes realism is gloomy. Putting on a happy face (I mean that purely metaphorically, not maliciously and not belittlingly) will not fix what needs fixing, and what needs fixing immediately. And that is the media/communications paradigm.
Apr '12
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
I agree with Adam. I can remember Democrats who felt the sky was falling in 2004, when the evil Bush was reelected. It's only one election, and our job now is to minimize the damage that the Dems can do until they can be defeated. And they will be, mostly because they will make everything worse. Eight years is too long for anyone to continue to blame Bush.
Oct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
No one, least of all I, is suggesting that. In fact I've articulated a variety of ideas (here http://bit.ly/SIfxyT and here http://bit.ly/Xwo6Tb) that are just the opposite of that approach.
May '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
I have sympathy for your optimistic POV. I wrote a similarly upbeat post, titled "It Does Matter".
I pointed out that all kinds of extreme liberals get elected by moderates, and it doesn't matter. Polls show majority backing for many conservative issues, and it doesn't matter. The apolitical middle tends to vote identity politics. So, we just need to make a massive effort to recruit quality candidates from various minority groups, and we'll win.
I overlooked two problems: media bias, and the inherent advantage of the Santa Claus model of governance. I threw the post away. It seemed glib and blinkered.
Jan '12
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
The GOP may have held the House in the same percentages, but House results ought to be taken with a grain of salt because House districts, unlike Presidential or Senate returns, can be gerrymandered to artificially inflate one party's representative count. Gerrymandering also messes with state legislature results, but that's overshadowed by the fact that state-by-state breakdowns that do not take into account population are meaningless. The President held fewer states than Gov. Romney, yet still won because the prairie, mountain west, non-continental, and southern states which are GOP strongholds are by-and-large underpopulated and lack first-class metropolitan areas. So we hold thirty governorships and monopolize twenty seven state legislatures...that means nothing if they're all the size of Wyoming, New Hampshire, or Alabama (and I say this with all the admiration in the world for the fine, upstanding people of Wyoming, New Hampshire, and Alabama), while the Democrats are secure in California, Pennsylvania, and New York. The country isn't center-left yet, but it's certainly not center-right anymore, and the momentum isn't on our side. We shouldn't panic, but the idea that "we're winning"...Tosh.
Edited on November 12, 2012 at 5:06amOct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
The difference is, the Dems had/have the MSM to run interference for them and to advocate for them. We don't have that advantage. Secondly, the Dems already made things worse, in just four years ($16 trillion of debt, multi-year trillion dollar deficits, no budgets for 3 years, 23 million on food stamps and growing, 15% real unemployment, foreign policy impotence, national security disasters, sky-high gas prices, a moribund housing market). And not only did they win back the White House, they improved their Senate numbers and didn't lose any ground in the House!
I don't know where all the Pollyanna-ism is coming from on the Right, but I sure as heck hope that well runs dry pretty soon, and clear-eyed sobriety returns.
Mar '11
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
dittoheadadt
No one, least of all I, is suggesting that. In fact I've articulated a variety of ideas (here http://bit.ly/SIfxyT and here http://bit.ly/Xwo6Tb) that are just the opposite of that approach. · 1 minute ago
Ditto, you just seemed a little agitated on here, with all the capitals, exclamation points, repetition, and italics.
Oct '10
Re: Conservatives Rejoice: We Are Winning the War
Sorry, Dave, I don't know how else to emphasize certain words, so that it reads the way it sounds in my head. Maybe my head's the problem...!