Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
In the New York Times Magazine this morning, "Here Comes Class Warfare," a fascinating piece of analysis by the pollster and statistician Nate Silver.
Briefly put, Silver finds that if Obama were to campaign on class warfare, losing votes among those who make over $100,000 a year but gaining votes among those who make less than $50,000, he might lose a couple of states, notably Colorado, Virginia and New Jersey, but he would gain more than half a dozen, particularly in the Midwest.
Although "Santorum would probably be weaker than Romney in the popular vote," Silver notes,
Republicans wouldn’t care about that...if Santorum carried Ohio and Michigan — and perhaps even his home state, Pennsylvania — places where economic concerns tend to take precedence. Under these conditions, in fact, Republicans might be able to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
I am not quite ready to suggest that Santorum would be a better nominee than Romney. But the electability gap between the two is closer than it might appear because of the way Santorum’s strengths could play in the Electoral College.
Whomever the GOP nominates, Silver concludes, "the Obama folks...[will] be acting from a place of relative strength--so long as the economic numbers remain decent."
If the economy tips backward toward recession because of the situation in Europe or tensions in the Middle East, Obama would go right back to being an underdog against either Romney or Santorum.
So, who wants to bet on there being nine months of no bad news?
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Jul '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
The election has been the sole focus for Obama for years. He will continue to spend his way back in to office. Do not underestimate the lengths to which he will go to win nor the lengths to which we must go to defeat him.
Oct '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Iran, and the serious possibility of military conflict there, is the clear issue that could end up being a major hit on our economy. Given that, and given how much Obama's re-election depends on the economy continuing to improve, to what length then will Obama go to pressuring Israel to hold off on any attack? I can only assume that the pressure will be significant to the point of dangerous for Israel's future.
Dec '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Nate Silver is a smart guy.
Having said that, in all analyses I've seen on the coming election, nobody has been able to quantify how people really feel about this president. The closest anyone has been able to come is the "syphilitic camel" quip, which pretty much sums it up.
We've spent virtual barrels of virtual ink wringing our hands over the electability of this or that Republican. Nobody, but nobody is discussing the electability of Barack Obama.
Jul '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
That's a big issue Dean. Obama will do whatever is possible to make it 8 more months. Legal scandals and Holder, postpone. Oil prices, just watch Obama fix this somehow. Interest rates, student loans, home loans...all manipulated. Unemployment, payroll tax holidays, the real impact of obamacare...it is all postponing problems or rigging the game.
Oct '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
(Emphasis added.)
And so the big lie has worked. Rather than fix the economy (that is, rather than stop breaking it) the narrative has been fixed. Pick and report on only good numbers, and suddenly dire economic straights are Morning in America.
Obama isn't working, as the Saatchi's might say. (Or, I discover, Romney for President, Inc.) Don't accept the false premises.
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Nate Silver is smart, but I think that he is wrong. Unemployment is too high, and Obamacare looms. If the Republican nominee runs as a would-be CEO, he might win. If he runs as a principled opponent of healthcare legislation that everyone fears, he has a much better chance. He can also do both, but he would do well to emphasize the latter.
My fear is that we will have an October surprise. Bomb, bomb, bomb/Bomb, bomb, Iran!
Jul '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Prof Rahe, you have the idea. Obama would kill millions to keep his hopey/changey train running.
Apr '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
It's a different contest for Santorum; Pennsylvania is a swing state that would let him win without Florida with the right combination. Mitt's better chances in Florida and the West (Nevada, New Mexico) give him different combinations; these states don't feature on Nate's map's unusual choice of swing states. Class warfare didn't work in Ohio in 2010, where Portman (hopefully VP) won the senate race in a landslide.
The big advantage that Romney has, which Nate has consistently ignored, is the various stories and data suggesting that Romney would approach or beat Obama's fundraising totals. While I appreciate that "money-infrastructure" was a joke, they're not unimportant in the general. The general election is a lot more like the Florida primary than the Iowa caucus. No one is going to be visiting every single county (3,143).
Also understated in Nate's map is how close a picture it paints. If the contests went as Nate predicts, and Romney won Florida, Obama would be having to win an awful lot of the swing states. I don't think New Jersey and Colorado are in play, but if they are, Ohio is unnecessary.
Dec '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Peter,
To be honest, I find this kind of hyper technical triangulation a joke. He is saying these things more to effect the outcome then to predict. If Santorum crushes Romney in Michigan, it is a sure sign that this year Santorum is connecting to the working class in the middle west. Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania are not far from Michigan in terms of how they vote.
Do you remember the Country Song by Kenny Rogers called the Gambler.
"You never count your money when you're playing at the table,
There'll be time enough for counting when the dealings done."
The dealing will be done on election night Nov 2012
Regards,
Jim
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Prof Rahe: Having written a dissertation on this 25 years ago, I would argue that the height of unemployment matters less than the momentum. As long as the momentum continues downward for the next six months, Mr. Obama is in pretty good shape on the economy. He needs unemployment to move slightly down, and inflation not to rise. That puts off much of the change in monetary policy until late this year, and keeps the money spigot from Washington fully open. That's what a political business cycle is, and Mr. Obama has played it very well to here.
Mar '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
I fear you are correct. That the public isn't in pitchforks and torches mode because Obama represents a form of government radically different from fundamental Constitutional ideals causes me to despair.
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
I was having a lovely Sunday, King, until I read your comment--and realized it was a whole lot harder to rebut than I'd have liked.
Jul '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Peter it's harder to rebut because the narrative after november will be if only we had done........and I can't believe obama sank so low as to do.......sometime I think either I'm insane or the establishment GOP is asleep.
Jun '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
The 2010 midterm election gave Republicans a sweep of historic proportions. Does anyone think that the voters who provided this victory have just thrown in the towel since then? Or changed their minds about Barack Obama? The conservative base will be motivated in this election like never before, in the full knowledge that if we do not win, future elections will be a moot exercise. Let your hearts not be troubled.
Nov '11
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
I think it's too early to draw conclusions like this.
In American presidential politics anything can happen.
Look at 1992!
Or 1912!
Or 1968!
Or 1972!
No. Its only February. No reliable conclusion can be drawn at this point. It's too early.
As to Obama playing some grand strategy by going to the class warfare well because he'll win in certain states with its and lose NJ (c'mon, really?), I frankly don't think they're that smart.
Yes, they've gone to the class warfare early and often, but that's just a vulgar appeal to the OWS types and those who sympathize.
This isn't Europe. Class warfare doesn't win in America like that. There are too many independent people, too many entrepreneurs, too many people who want to be rich.
Their folly is that America, even in 2012, is not Dickensian England.
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Thank you, Paules, thank you! I feel *much* better now.
How's life in Santa Fe, btw? I just love your posts--first from the schoolroom, then from the cab. You write like an angel. More!
Dec '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Paul A. Rahe: Nate Silver is smart, but I think that he is wrong. Unemployment is too high, and Obamacare looms. If the Republican nominee runs as a would-be CEO, he might win. If he runs as a principled opponent of healthcare legislation that everyone fears, he has a much better chance. He can also do both, but he would do well to emphasize the latter.
My fear is that we will have an October surprise. Bomb, bomb, bomb/Bomb, bomb, Iran! · 37 minutes ago
Israel is signalling strongly that it will not wait until October.
If Obama lets Israel take the lead in attacking Iran, the USA will be pulled in almost instantly and Obama will again be "leading from behind." Not a politically good place to be.
If Obama orders a US first strike, he loses his base, the people he sold out Iraq and Afghanistan to regain.
If Obama pressures Israel to hold off until after the election, either Israel will disobey and make Obama look weak or Israel will comply and Iran will reach the "invulnerability point" where they'll be able to build a bomb regardless of a military strike. Again, bad for Obama.
Jun '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Peter Robinson
Thank you, Paules, thank you! I feel *much* better now.
How's life in Santa Fe, btw? I just love your posts--first from the schoolroom, then from the cab. You write like an angel. More! · 3 minutes ago
Your flattery embarrasses me, but thanks for the compliment. Life is good. I took the cab on a run up to Taos the other day. Wish I had taken a camera. The scenery is so breathtaking that it would make you believe in God if you didn't already. :)
Dec '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
I think Santorum would do better with the 'bitter clingers' that make up much of the '99 percent' than either the President who disrespected them as 'bitter clingers' or the Republican who can be demagogued as an ultra-wealthy partician who's not empathetic to their lives. (Whether Romney actually lacks that empathy isn't as important as the fact that he can be demagogued that way.)
Dec '10
Re: Class Warfare: The White House Has Thought It Through
Jerry Broaddus:
Having said that, in all analyses I've seen on the coming election, nobody has been able to quantify how people really feel about this president. The closest anyone has been able to come is the "syphilitic camel" quip, which pretty much sums it up.
All I have is anecdotal evidence. A lot of my hard-left Progressive friends have started looking very seriously at Ron Paul as their alternative to Obama. I'm hearing heartfelt declarations that they will NEVER vote for Obama again and that the Democrats are as bad as the Republicans.
To put that in perspective, another anecdote: my father was the President of his teacher's union local and a member of the Alameda County Central Labor Council. In 1992, speaking about Bill Clinton, he told me he could NEVER vote for the Governor of a right-to-work state. Of course, he voted for Clinton in the general election, and some years later, he gave a place of pride on his home's wall to a photo of President Clinton shaking hands with him and my mother.
So it remains to be seen whether Progressives will abandon Obama and sit out November.