Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Last week Claire and Judith told me to calm down. I was happy to comply. All around her in Israel, Judith explained, life was going on normally. Nobody displayed any dread. Nobody betrayed any sense of impending catastrophe. The same, Claire said, went for Turkey. Nobody in Istanbul appeared to be tensing for a crisis—or at least not for any more of a crisis than life in Istanbul already represented. Claire and Judith are sensitive to cultural and political signals—you just couldn’t ask for two more minutely observant or completely alert correspondents. Iran? Nukes? If Claire and Judith were telling me to calm down, I figured, everything in the Middle East was somehow going to be okay.
This worked for about three days. Then a couple of unwelcome thoughts began to intrude on my serenity.
First I recalled a conversation a few years ago with a friend on Wall Street. What separated successful investors from everybody else, he told me—and he had the millions of dollars to prove he knew what he was talking about—was their ability to rid themselves of a nearly universal failing: the tendency to assume that whatever happened today would happen again tomorrow. If markets rise, typical investors assume, they’ll continue rising indefinitely; if they fall, that they’ll continue falling forever. The exceptional investor, my friend explained, sees not stasis but dynamism. By their very nature, he recognizes, markets prove contingent and open-ended. Valuations shift. Trends reverse themselves. The exceptional investor—the investor who is truly good at what he does—never, ever assumes that tomorrow will look like today.
“It’s as easy as that?” I asked. “You can make money just by recognizing that the future is a lot more open-ended than most people think?”
“’Easy?’” my friend replied. “Who said ridding yourself of a turn of mind that’s natural to every human being is ‘easy’?”
Next I made an error. I permitted my mind to wander, free associating. Before I knew it, I had applied my friend’s lesson about Wall Street to a few historical events. During the October Revolution, I recalled, life in most of St. Petersburg went on as normal--or at least as normally as wartime conditions permitted—all but unaffected by the Communist coup. Most residents of the Russian capital remained, simply, clueless.
In Germany during the nineteen-thirties, I remembered, many Jews continued to lead normal lives. From WikiAnswers:
[T]he great majority of German Jews were highly assimilated into German society….They were thoroughly German and many were tragically in love with Germany. This only changed as persecution intensified and especially when they were subjected to widespread physical violence in the 'Night of the Broken Glass'.
Hitler become chancellor in 1933. Kristallnacht took place in 1938. For a full five years, then, many Jews in Nazi Germany remained just as clueless as the residents of St. Petersburg during the Communist takeover—or, for that matter, as the management of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers during the collapse of the housing market.
I invite Claire and Judith to tell me once again to calm down—really I do. But does it tell us all that much that life in Israel and Turkey still looks normal? Now I'm not so sure.
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Jul '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
And what about the Black Swan Theory?
May '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
This reminds of the video etoiledunord linked to in an earlier thread. In a matter of minutes, a typical day becomes an extraordinary and chaotic event for dozens of people, with only one person acting as the catalyst.
In video game design, a player with boundless imagination and free will is guided into particular actions and reactions by shaping the setting. While human nature is basically consistent, individual choices are difficult to predict. But if you can understand the setting in which people interact, you can narrow the breadth of possibilities.
Jun '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
I don't know if the World's terrorists were paying close attention--I suspect they were--but look how much chaos and fear was caused in 2002 by just two guys, driving around the Washington DC area randomly taking shots at people walking around, killing several, wounding several. For most of a month, people were scared to even walk outside. Maybe it's one of the things that inspired the Mumbai attacks. Who knows? What if a repeat of the DC Sniper attacks happened in twenty or thirty American cities at the same time? The nation would go nuts. And it only takes two terrorists per city, so thirty cities, sixty guys. Not an impossible task for the average terrorist group. Nobody in America would leave their house if they didn't have to. And imagine the press coverage. It's a terrorist's dream. Those are the kind of things that I hope somebody in charge is trying to anticipate and preempt.
Jul '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Another history story: my parents both served on active duty during WWII. In the 1930s, news 'shorts' were presented along with the cartoons and main movie. My father told me that every week, these news items would show quantities of German soldiers doing their war games, marching in unison, etc... and he said, it never occurred to any of the spectators that this had anything to do with their own lives. I can see people in St Petersburg going about their daily business, while over on the other side of town there was much excitement about "something or other". It's really difficult to see evil coming, unless it's at your front door.
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
I'm going to have to break this response into chunks, since it won't all fit.
Peter, here’s the thing.
When I read your post about Cordoba House, I couldn’t sleep that night. I’ve been in Israel a decade and have planted deep roots here, but I’m a New Yorker first and foremost. I was married in Jaffa six days before the Twin Towers were destroyed. When I sat in our apartment that day, less than a week after my wedding, and watched the planes hit the buildings, I felt that I had betrayed my city by not being there for the attack.
Nine years later I learned that a mosque is to be built near the site, and its owners wanted to call it Cordoba. I read your explication of the meaning behind the name and my stomach turned over. I wondered, are Americans sleeping? Do they understand what’s at stake here, and how brazenly they're being provoked? Do they register that they're being tested, and that this is only the beginning? Do they think the rape of New York on 9/11 was meant to be the last of it? [1/3]
Edited on Jul. 28 at 12:40pmRe: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
These dark reflections about my beloved United States go through my mind here in Israel, my adopted country. Here, I feel protected, defended, understood, valued. I will never have to justify my fears of our neighbors to my own government. I will never have to fear that my leaders will one day despise me and my particular ethnic group. I will never have to fear that our army’s leadership will go to sleep until the enemy is at the gates. I will never have to fear that the people I am depending on to keep my family safe have become delusional about the reality of the threats we face. [2/3]
Edited on Jul. 28 at 12:27pmRe: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Peter, I said that things feel normal. But remember that I'm working on a piece titled "Weimar Istanbul." So believe me, I am not at all unaware of the historical associations you're making. Not at all. I know full well that things tend to feel normal until the moment they don't. I know it from history. I know it from personal experience. So, no, I can't reassure you. It's surely an odd experience to live in a city that feels more than just normal--a city that feels shockingly vibrant, dynamic, restless, kinetic, alive--and to know that the entire edifice could come tumbling down any second, both literally, given the seismic risk to this city, and politically, given the obvious. And anyone who is not terrified by the situation with Iran is simply in denial. But I think Judith will join me in saying that you either live in denial or crawl shaking under the bed, and since it might not happen, you might as well live. I'd rather live somewhere other than the underside of my bed. As of today, the world is still a beautiful place.
Does that cheer you up?
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
None of this means that we're not in danger. We are. This is Ground Zero. Tomorrow I’m driving north with an old friend into the wine country in Zichron, and I’ll be about a quarter of an hour from the town of Megiddo, otherwise known as Armageddon. Much of the world, from Riyadh to L.A., is quietly hoping we’ll take care of the Iran problem for them, and we may well have to in the end. They all reserve the right to hate us for it, and I fully expect them to do so.
I hope it will not come to the worst. I do not want Israel to be responsible for raining destruction down on Iran, or on anyone else. But Israel will do what she has to do. And in the meantime, we will go on visiting the wine country and soaking up sunshine and kvelling over our kids. There might be a hint of denial in Israeli high spirits, but I’d argue that there’s a whole lot more realism on the streets of Tel Aviv than there is on Third Avenue.
In the meantime, Peter, bless you for caring. [3/3]
Edited on Jul. 28 at 12:27pmJun '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
A frozen river looks calm but underneath the waters are always moving. Relax at your own risk.
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Well, you know, if freaking out would help, I'd do it, but it won't.
Jun '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
I find myself reading these words over and over - they resonate with me in a way I didn't expect. The last time I can remember even coming close to "feeling" this way was just prior to the end of the Cold War. Not that I have lost all trust in our institutions and military of course, but rather a growing awareness of the fragility of it all, and of the dominance of "nuance" with respect to identity and worldview. A reason perhaps to invest and focus on the eternal, instead of the temporary. There is a right balance between security and liberty. Has to be.
Jun '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
I witnessed a riot in Srinigar, Kashmir where the police opened fire on a crowd with .303 Enfields, not exactly a crowd control weapon. People scattered everywhere. I ran 90 degrees away from the action and made good my escape. Two blocks away people were drinking tea in cafes totally unaware of the drama.
Violence tends to be very localized when it breaks out. This is generally true even in war. An event like 9/11 is more the exception than the rule. Chances are that if something happens in either Istanbul or Israel, Claire and Judith will be just fine.
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
I'm still pretty sure that the greatest risk I face in the near term--Judith, too--is from cars. Actually, Paules, that probably goes for you, too. Cars are just terribly dangerous.
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Whoa. Every single time I start flipping out about Iranian bomb threats and Hezbollah rockets and Palestinian suicide bombers, my hyper-rational mathematician husband starts calmly reciting statistics about how much higher the odds are of my dying in a car accident.
I usually have to restrain the impulse to whack him upside the head with a rolled up Haaretz, but he does have a point.
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
I don't know why that's supposed to calm you. When I think about the risk from cars, it doesn't make me less worried about nukes. It just makes me more worried about cars.
May '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
etoiledunord, the worst sort of terrorism is, thankfully, unexplored in America thus far by jihadists. The most effective terrorism is to slaughter "unimportant" people in unimportant towns, including small towns of less than few hundred residents. 9/11 frightened Americans everywhere, but most understood that the terrorists were targeting locations of national relevance. If terrorists ever target average Joes in average towns, fear would be infinitely more widespread and effective. Police and intelligence agencies can't protect against that. Security would fall to vigilant citizens... and that's why, I think, terrorists haven't taken that route yet. They don't want Americans on the lookout for murderers as Israelis have learned to be.
May '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Judith Levy:
I hope it will not come to the worst. ...in the meantime, we will go on visiting the wine country and soaking up sunshine and kvelling over our kids. There might be a hint of denial in Israeli high spirits, but I’d argue that there’s a whole lot more realism on the streets of Tel Aviv than there is on Third Avenue.· Jul 28 at 12:20pm
As I said somewhere before, my earliest political memory is watching the Berlin Wall come down on TV. I once wrote a song while remembering that scene and wondering what it must have been like for West Berliners with family and friends on the other side. I came to a similar conclusion:
-
gazing every across the wall
wire and concrete couldn't block it all
shots fire and a bird sings
heard the rumors, seen the tales
slain in daylight, countless thrown in jails
we danced 'til the mornings
-
your pain's in me
but should I cry forever?
there's beauty, too
and candles shine in any dark
spare me no sadness
but don't grudge me a smile
there's reason to
-
Keep smiling, Judith. :)
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Can we at least all agree that, great fun as they are, we should all avoid motorcycles, which make cars look like airliners from a comparative safety standpoint?
May '10
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Not to throw a wet rag on this comforting comparative-risk talk, but once Iran gets the bomb, the calculation changes completely (and in fact becomes an impossible one to make). Currently, acts of terror occur in small, somewhat steady-drip increments, like car accidents, or plane crashes. We can calculate odds because of their more-or-less predictable nature. Not so in the coming nexus of Islamism + nuclear proliferation + ballistic missile proliferation. Sorry folks.
Re: Claire and Judith, Now I'm Not So Sure
Scott, can't argue with that. And if you really want to lose sleep over Israel (and the rest of the enlightened Western world) in the crosshairs, consider that Iran is highly unlikely to consider the presence here of a) Israeli Arabs, b) Palestinian Arabs, c) The Al-Aqsa Mosque or d) The Dome of the Rock as reasons to hesitate to vaporize the place. The mullahs have said they're fine with the thought of bringing total devastation on Iranians if it means spreading the good word about Islam, so why should the residents of, say, Akko or Ramallah quibble about being collectively sent on to the glories of martyrdom? And anything that happens to the holy sites of Islam in the course of the conflagration would, presumably, be chalked up as our fault in the end, no matter who starts it.