Chris Him Goodbye?
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie once again attempted to lay to rest the speculation that he might enter the presidential sweepstakes -- this time, running a montage of previous clips, from previous interviews, all denying presidential ambitions.
So is that it?
The screaming header on Drudge say it's over.
But do a news search and you'll find a bevy of stories suggesting the door's still ajar -- it ain't over 'til it's over, as a famous resident of the State once said.
As for the speech, feel free to take a look . . .
Presuming, for argument's sake, that Christie is out (which sounds sort of funny, since he's never been "in"), here are a few reasons why I don't think 2012 lines up for him:
1) Supposing He Jumped In, Where Would He Land? Financial backers have offered Christie loads of encouragement and promises of bushels of campaign cash. But what's the road map? Would Christie have competed in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina? Or, taking a page from the 2008 Giuliani campaign, would he have waited it out until Florida (Oct. 31 deadline to file, btw)? History hasn’t been kind of late to presidential candidates who ran long on electability in a fall election but didn’t have a natural landing spot in an early primary state – didn’t work for Hillary or Rudy; maybe wouldn’t have worked for Christie.
2) Mission Incomplete. In New Jersey, 2011 was the year of Christie’s big win on pension reform. Next up: education reform. What would Christie like to achieve in 2012? That depends, in part, on off-year New Jersey’s legislative contests a few weeks from now. With an outside chance of the GOP gaining control of at least one chamber, the greater the temptation for Christie to stay home and push through an agenda with fewer roadblocks. Conversely, an invigorated Democratic legislature would make life miserable for an absentee Republican governor. In case you haven't noticed, the last four officeholders to win the presidency did so courtesy of day jobs that gave them the latitude to spend time working the campaign trail.
3) Love from the Right? One reason why the Perry campaign is in a skid: conservatives taking a hard look at his Texas immigration record. Would Christie receive the same tough scrutiny? Courtesy of New York Magazine: five reasons for conservative concern (yes, including illegal immigration).
4) Unlucky ’13? Let’s suppose you’re Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and you’re asked to join the GOP national ticket. The worst-case scenario if the ticket lays an egg: you have four years, until your re-election in 2016, to make it up to your constituents. Christie, however, is up for reelection in 2013. His numbers, at the moment, are good (54% approval, up 10% since May). But that could change if he belly-flopped as a national candidate. A wasted 2012 could bleed into his re-election year – a risk he might not have wanted to take.
5) Losing His Place in Line for 2016. President Obama’s a weakened incumbent, but he’s an incumbent nonetheless. Going back a century to the last 13 contests involving an elected president, the incumbent won 9 times and lost 4 (three of those, Republicans). Should Obama win, 2016 offers an open seat – and a long list of possible GOP candidates. Christie, coming off a re-election win in 2013, presumably would be at the head of that line. But maybe not so, if he were tarnished by a failed presidential run.
Personally, I'd like to have seen Christie run. The more competition, the merrier. And I believe he'd have forced Romney and Perry to further step up their games. Moreover, I'm a believer in the George Costanza "opposite works" approach to changing presidencies -- if you want to beat Obama, why not a non-Icy, shot-and-beer, rough-and-tumble brawler?
Barbour. Daniels. Ryan. Now, I guess, Christie. Who's the next GOP bowl of porridge?
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Comments :
Mar '11
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Um, yes, which part of no don't you understand?
Next bowl of porridge? Mrs Palin? On Greta tonight I got the impression she may not run - but we will see soon enough - the deadline approacheth.
So that leaves us (Tea Party conservatives) Mr Cain - fine with me. Mrs Palin will make a fine VP.
Apr '11
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
What this country needs is a fat Romney.
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
I regret Christie's failure to jump in. But I understand it. He has a lot on his plate, and he holds the most powerful gubernatorial office in the country. It is disheartening that we have so few serious choices, however.
Nov '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
I think if you dig too deep into a candidate and even the best will have something in their past that tarnishes an impression of being perfect. And what the Republicans need right now is not perfect, they need a fighter. They need someone to speak against the opposition in confrontational and frank terms and present and be able to sell reality to the electorate. This is Christie's brand, and is the most important and valuable asset that he brings to the table. It may be the only way to get American's to address the really important issues. That's why his absence stings so.
Edited on Sep 28, 2011 at 5:03amJun '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
My guess is that he was invited to speak at the Reagan Library by a cabal of establishment Republicans who are dissatisfied with the current field. Christie strikes me as another managerial progressive, but with more real accomplishments than Romney. We should give him the credit he deserves for putting his state back in the black, but he's hardly a union buster. Governor Daniels has done more to undermine public employee unions than Christie by offering statewide vouchers for education. I would also conclude that Christie's tepid response to the idea of running leaves the door more open than closed. I have no idea what's going on within the party establishment, but I'm more convinced than ever that we won't get the radical federalist we need. Incremental tinkering with big government is not the solution. Leaders come and go but bureaucracy is forever. I might as well throw my support behind Gary Johnson for all the good it will do.
Jun '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
How can a man that sounds so bright on the dais be so stupid when it comes to global warming? What else is he stupid about?
Jun '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Well, he says leadership means getting our own house in order so that other nations will wish to emulate us. Tell it to the Iranians. Or the Egyptians. Or the assorted tribal peoples of Afghanistan.
Jun '11
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
I'm with you... I have serious concerns about Christie's positions, but he would give Romney (and Perry if he ever wakes up) a run for their money. As the poster implies, we can't afford an untested candidate who simply cruised to the nomination.
Mar '11
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
“In other words, we did what Government is supposed to do. We took action.”
Is no one else troubled by this? “There’s a problem. Only Government can save us!”
Oct '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Vic Sage: “In other words, we did what Government is supposed to do. We took action.”
Is no one else troubled by this? “There’s a problem. Only Government can save us!” · Sep 28 at 7:41am
I sympathize with this concern. Christie seems to believe more in the power of transformative leadership than the structural protections of federalism. He doesn't talk enough about devolving power back to states and people.
However.
Given the fact that our economic problems are driven by federal programs already in place, I believe at this time we need a leader with the political courage to actually reform/restructure those programs. This is one of the few situations where "get government out of it" isn't a valid solution -- yet.
Imagine you're in a plane that is crashing. The man next to you asks "What do we do?!" It wouldn't do much good to say "We get out of here. We never should have gotten on this thing in the first place." No. You need someone to get you safely on the ground first.
It takes political courage to confront these issues. Christie has it. I'm not sure Romney or Perry do.
Edited on Sep 28, 2011 at 8:39amMay '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Of all the items mentioned, the "Mission Incomplete" one resonates with me. He needs to finish what he started, for several reasons.
One nice thing about the recent young democrat Presidents is that, once out of office, they are essentially done. Do we want Chris Christie to be done in 10 years? I don't. I want him to finish in New Jersey, **then** to run for President.
Mar '11
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Blake,
I would share this sentiment if not for its resemblance to the justification offered for Stimulus I (aka, TARP). The reasoning thus follows: a) Government caused the problem (over-regulation, empowerment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, micro-manipulation by the Fed, etc.), b) the nation’s financial institutions are in trouble, ergo, c) only Government can fix the problem. The result: A proliferation of “too big to fail” policies that will remain encrusted upon us like the chains of Jacob Marley in perpetuity.
Just as for most addicts, solutions are often more painful and unpalatable than the next hit of the drug. Sooner or later, though, the bottom will arrive. Some laws are immutable.
Edited on Sep 28, 2011 at 8:49amJul '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Imagine if Reagan were running today. He'd be suspect on abortion, for sure.
Mar '11
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Reagan recanted his earlier abortion policies without equivocation. I don’t know that Christie has done the same with his anthropogenic global warming alarmism. If so, then all the better.
However, it’s a common fallacy to look at the present through the rose-tinted spectacles of the past. Christie is Christie. He’s not Reagan. This is not a knock on the Governor. I simply prefer to choose the red pill over the blue.
May '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Christie is "AGW", but to an undetermined extent. That description also applies to Pat Michaels and Richard Lindzen, so it is meaningless. Christie clearly is not CAGW, or he wouldn't have pulled out of the compact.
The one solid candidate who still needs to be courted is Jeb. If he slams the door as convincingly as the other hopefuls have, we'd better start working on putting Romney in the appropriate policy straitjacket, because that is what we will have. And it could be worse.
Jul '10
Re: Chris Him Goodbye?
Very good speech, indeed. That it was given in the Reagan Library at the request of Nancy Reagan might indicate that it would be used as the basis for either his own stump speech if he decides to run (doubtful) or one used in support of the eventual nominee. If that happens to be Herman Cain (I know, I know – too many think his lack of elected governance disqualifies him) the ideas Christie espoused mesh quite well with those of Cain. Unlike those of the other candidates – so far.
If it is used in behalf of the nominee, look for Christie down the road. Shades of Reagan’s path perhaps? ("A Time for Choosing") Besides, by that time the Republican president will have laid AGW to rest, so not to worry.