China Rising
Emotionally speaking, life is more about where you are headed than where you are coming from. This observation explains both the unbridled optimism charging the humid air of the Shanghai coffee shop I’m composing this in and the oppressive gloom darkening the considerably more temperate Silicon Valley Starbucks I visited before my departure for the Middle Kingdom this week.
Objectively speaking, America is in an enviable condition, enjoying the world’s largest economy and unparalleled individual freedom. Meanwhile, China is still mainly a developing country known for imprisoning its dissidents and tightly controlling any sort of political expression--YouTube, Facebook and Twitter are blocked here, so any hopes for a “Chinese Spring” are likely quixotic.
Leaving emotion aside, how is it that this society, where banners proclaiming the Communist Party’s glorious 90th anniversary flutter just across the street from a capitalistic kaleidoscope sure to have brought Mao Tse-Tung to an early cerebral hemorrhage, is on the ascendancy while America is in the doldrums?
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Comments :
Mar '11
Re: China Rising
Could it be that the Chinese believe in Capitalism, while Mr Obama believes in Marxism - err, I mean, Liberalism?
Aug '10
Re: China Rising
Asians are pragmatic and practical above all things, especially idealism. I doubt they have ever dreamed of world peace, or world anything. They want safety and protection for themselves; have always loved commerce and money; and wish for their own country to be rich, powerful, and great again. A Chinese friend loaned me a book of classic ancient poetry, written from 200 B.C. to about 950 A.D. The recurring theme was the oppression of women, the poor, and the abuse of power. They never had a Moses, Jesus, or Gandhi in their history. Confucius and Lao Tsu taught them endurance. We in the West are "foreign devils" and can go to hell, as far as they're concerned.
May '10
Re: China Rising
Because it is *relative* growth and *relative* decline. China is improving conditions for business from a manifestly dreadful base. The US (well, most of the West, for that matter) has been flirting with worse business conditions, but from a starting point of a pretty healthy environment in terms of economic and individual freedoms. Eventually the failure to liberalise politically will constrain their ability to grow economically. That will be at a GDP per capita still well below the West. however, there are just so many people in China, that the total GDP will eventually be larger than any other. It is a simple question of scale.
Sep '10
Re: China Rising
It is ironic that pundits like Thomas Friedman are lauding this version of state capitalism as the older versions in the EU and the US decay. It seems to me that they are thriving in spite of the State and not because of it. It is the State that has accumulated this giant overhang of dollars and allowed the banking system to over extend itself but the people have known freedom less long and basic entrepreneurship is flowering. Lets hope that genie cannot be re-bottled.
Dec '10
Re: China Rising
China has 120 men for every 100 women, crazy pollution, huge infrastructure problems(remember the 10 day traffic jam?) and I for one do not trust their financial numbers. China is pretty much dead last on the list of countries I would expect to replace us if our decline continues.
May '11
Re: China Rising
Having been to China twice in the last 10 years, most recently last June, I can say that the people are energized and hopeful. While I think China has great potential, it also has structural problems that I believe will prevent it from replacing the US economically any time soon. A lot of the development going on doesn't seem to have a firm economic reason for being done. The government is desperately trying to make work for people flocking to the cities. They have a lot of problems that I don't think will be easily solved.
Jun '10
Re: China Rising
Why are people flocking to the cities? Because there is a huge disparity between wealthy urban centers and poor rural villages. If China stops "growing" economically, how soon will these disparities lead to national unrest? The Chinese leadership is running as fast as it can to stay in one place. Eventually, they will fail to move forward and the consequences of that failure will not be pretty.
Apr '11
Re: China Rising
Total GNP puts China in the company of the USA and Germany. Per capita GNP puts China in the company of Zimbabwe and Albania. This is a situation that can not last indefinitely.
Feb '11
Re: China Rising
George, I don't think the "oppressive gloom" that you're detecting in the US is entirely a matter of the economy. For decades now, the academics and their amplifiers in the media and the entertainment industry have been broadcasting continuous messages of "US Bad" and "US must decline." This continued assault on our national being has to have a psychological effect on people, even in Silicon Valley. The economy of course plays an important role in the instigation of gloom, but the endless negative messages surely make people less resilient in the face of what should have been only a temporary downturn.
May '10
Re: China Rising
David Knights has it right for the right reasons- China today is about where Japan was in the late 1970's-early '80's, when everyone was convinced its growth was unstoppable. The banking system is due a jolt as correctives are inevitable when the real estate bubble hits home, and the increasing demands of the middle class are going to retard growth below the necessary sustaining rate.
But the population is its best asset. They still have not been taken over by the lassitude that accompanies the nanny state. For an example of why they are doing well, check out the health care system. Very cheap annual insurance premium (if I recall, less than $50 a year), which pays about half of your catastrophic hospitalization cost. No first dollar welfare, but costs are controlled because 1) the price of labor entry is low, and 2) no tort law expropriation (that is, no ambulance chasers).