Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
The Logo ·
Nov 15, 2011 at 6:43am
In our latest poll of Ricochet Members (Nov. 8-11), Newt Gingrich has taken a seven point lead over Mitt Romney, up from a 15 point deficit one month earlier.
Gingrich's support appears to come mainly from erosion of support in Herman Cain who, in a separate question, saw his perceived electability drop 21 points, to 47% over the same interval.
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Jan '11
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
Just a quibble, Cain's perceived electability didn't drop 21%, the percentage of people who support his candidacy dropped 21%. On the perceived electability issue, I think you should have noted that far and away Romney is seen as the most electable. It's not even close. Yet in this really important election so many people want to throw the dice with the not-Romney. The only person seen as electable by a majority of Ricocheti is Gingrich and only 60% see Newt as being able to take the prize, versus 86% seeing Romney as capable of winning. That tells me there is still a huge amount of irrational mental gymnastics going on among people trying to convince themselves that there is a good candidate that can win who isn't Romney. It's really bizarre.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 6:56amMay '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
To quote Elivis Costello, Clown Time is over. Let's nominate Mitt, and focus some of our energy on getting Congress as conservative as possible.
Nov '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
I agree that Clown Time is over, but far, FAR prefer Newt over McRomneycare. Looking at the political experience, it's not even close. Newt served as Speaker of the House, the world's most powerful legislator, and he is the only person who can reasonably claim to have balanced the US budget with a straight face (I know, I know, I know, but I did say "claim" and "straight face"). Newt has decades of experience in DC, in elected office, and was one of the architects of the Contract, one of the most successful political documents ever written. Romney spent a term as governor of the most liberal state in the known universe -- and authored Romneycare ('nuff said).
Newt puts it best: Romney is an awesome manager, but the 2010 elections show that we want a lot more than a manager, we need someone who can fundamentally change the system; Romney isn't even close, Newt is our best shot.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:34amRe: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
BThompson: Just a quibble, Cain's perceived electability didn't drop 21%, the percentage of people who support his candidacy dropped 21%. On the perceived electability issue, I think you should have noted that far and away Romney is seen as the most electable. It's not even close. Yet in this really important election so many people want to throw the dice with the not-Romney. The only person seen as electable by a majority of Ricocheti is Gingrich and only 60% see Newt as being able to take the prize, versus 86% seeing Romney as capable of winning. That tells me there is still a huge amount of irrational mental gymnastics going on among people trying to convince themselves that there is a good candidate that can win who isn't Romney. It's really bizarre. · Nov 15 at 6:54am
Edited on Nov 15 at 06:56 am
Cain's perceived electability in Question 3 went from 68.5% in early October (the linked poll) to 47% in the poll just completed. 21 points.
The Logo didn't highlight Romney's high electability figures because they didn't change much (91% in Oct., 86% in Nov.). He's still seen as most electable, although his continued "Not Conservative Enough" score (78% in Oct.; 74% in Nov.) appears to leave Members searching for a more conservative alternative who's nonetheless electable.
Last month it was Cain. This month, it's Gingrich.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:35amJan '11
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
Thanks for the clarification, logo. I didn't notice the link to last month's poll. I was going by the graph where it looks like the number of people wanting to vote for Cain also dropped by about 21%. I still think the high electability numbers for Romney are very noteworthy, even though they haven't changed much. It tells me that people know what they're getting with Romney and it is likely good enough for the vast majority. For people to be getting on all these roller coasters with the other candidates, especially someone like Gingrich, whom they've known for even longer than they've known Romney, just seems strange to me.
May '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
Nah, let's go with Bob Dole, or John McCain.
Apr '11
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
Doug Lee
I agree that Clown Time is over, but far, FAR prefer Newt over McRomneycare. Looking at the political experience, it's not even close. Romney spent a term as governor of the most liberal state in the known universe -- and authored Romneycare ('nuff said).
Newt does have more political experience. Not even close, as you say. Mitt has more executive political experience. Not even close. Even before he was governor, the Olympics gave him more than Newt. He's also got more experience of the real economy. Not even close.
Mitt did support a state level mandate. So did Newt. Also, a federal level mandate. And a laptop for every child. And the fairness doctrine. And new entitlements. And eco-spending in a dizzying variety of ways. And flex fuel mandates. And the American Disability Act.
Find an good faith, reasonably informed, attack on Mitt for flip flopping (ie., not the suggestion that he could ignore the MA supreme court), and you'll find that Gingrich has flip flopped on the same issue, holding more extreme opinions on both sides.
Newt is not entirely an inferior Mitt. He's better at debates. And after dinner speeches. More practice.
Dec '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
This day four years ago, mid-November prior to primary voting, Hillary was ahead of her closest rival 44.5% to 22.8%. She had high “electability” numbers too. She was next in line too.
May '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
What's the possibility that we could have a poll that asks the same question for #1 and then asks for second and third choices? I'm quite curious who people are keeping on the back-burner. Given the fluidity of the field, it might be a germane thing to consider.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:27amAug '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
I don't understand why people think Romney is "electable". Who are they comparing him against?
His persona may seem "urbane" when compared to a stereotypical Republican caricature, but when compared against Barack "Harvard" Obama the persona disappears.
When is comes to "electability", I like to think of the single most unflattering* word I would use to describe the candidate's persona, and decide which word I'd prefer to put up against the opposition.
If Romney's the candidate, the "identity battle" will not be framed as "The Leftist vs. The Conservative", but rather as "The Academic vs. The Corporate". In today's climate, "corporate" is not the label you want hanging around the neck of the candidate.
As for the others, I'd suggest:
(* "unflattering" being defined as what I think the opposition (and/or the MSM) considers to be unflattering, not what I think is actually unflattering.)
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:40amNov '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
James Of England
Doug Lee
I agree that Clown Time is over, but far, FAR prefer Newt over McRomneycare. Looking at the political experience, it's not even close. Romney spent a term as governor of the most liberal state in the known universe -- and authored Romneycare ('nuff said).
Newt does have more political experience. Not even close, as you say. Mitt has more executive political experience. Not even close. Even before he was governor, the Olympics gave him more than Newt. He's also got more experience of the real economy. Not even close.
I think you Mitt folks are going to have to lay off the Olympics thing. If Cain's restaurant experience doesn't count as the kind of experience you need to be president (and I agree, it probably doesn't), the Olympics doesn't either.
May '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
Huh? It's not that Cain's restaurant experience doesn't count; it's that he doesn't have much more than that. Moreover, Romney's private sector experience dwarf's Cains by a factor of 1000--Exhibit 274
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:58amJul '10
Re: Center of Gravity Poll #4: Gingrich Takes the Lead
ParisParamus
Huh? It's not that Cain's restaurant experience doesn't count; it's that he doesn't have much more than that. Moreover, Romney's private sector experience dwarf's Cains by a factor of 1000--Exhibit 274 · Nov 15 at 10:57am
Edited on Nov 15 at 10:58 am
Bain Capitol Has Touch The Lives Of All Americans
That's the problem. We don't want politicians touching Our Lives. We want them out of Our Lives.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 5:55pm