Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Even as they gave President Obama the budget he wanted yesterday, House Republicans had the chance to make a stand, demonstrating that they stood for an entirely different, and much more sensible, agenda. They threw the chance away. When the new Congress is sworn in later this month, should it elect a new Speaker?
My thinking:
When I interviewed him for Uncommon Knowledge just after the election, John O'Sullivan argued that Republicans should let the Democrats have the budget they want -- but make clear that the budget was just that, a Democratic budget, by abstaining from the vote. "Let the Democrats own it," John very reasonably said.
The one problem with John's argument, I thought, and still think: Abstaining would haved placed Republicans in an untenable position. Their constituents elect members of the House to vote "yea" or "nay," after all, and not merely "present."
Yesterday, though, Republicans in the House had the chance to enact something like John O'Sullivan's strategy while still casting definite votes for or against the budget legislation: Speaker Boehner could have counted noses very carefully, ensuring that the legislation passed by only two votes. (Since an even number of Representatives voted, enacting the measure by a single vote would have proven impossible.) Instead of twisting so many arms that 85 Republicans voted "yea," in other words, he could have singled out just 41 Republicans to do so--and he may even have been able to ensure that nearly all of those votes came from the 36 defeated or retiring Republicans who will be leaving the house at the end of this session.
Instead of a budget measure that passed comfortably, 257 to 167, with the support of more than a third of House Republicans, the Speaker could have produced a bill that passed by the narrowest possible margin, 213 to 211, with less than a fifth of Republicans voting in favor--and he could have made certain that those who voted in favor held an immediate press conference to say that they hated the bill even so. This result would have proven imperfect, goodness knows. But it would have enabled the Republicans to claim, quite credibly, that they were standing on principle.
The number two man in the House, Majority Whip Eric Cantor, seems to have sensed this need for the House GOP to demonstrate a certain principled defiance--he opposed the budget legislation in conference, then voted against it on the floor. (Note that Paul Ryan joined Speaker Boehner in voting for the measure.)
Cantor for Speaker?
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Comments:
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
I note that, placing a comment just now under James Delingpole's post, Adam Freedman wrote as follows:
Adam, would you do me a favor? Would you place a comment in this thread, taking my blame-Boehner argument apart?
I like Boehner. I want to be wrong.
Edited on January 2, 2013 at 9:52pmDec '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
We need someone cut from the same cloth as John Bolton, not John Boehner, as speaker.
Jul '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
The Gutless Outdated Party rides again.
Mar '11
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Boehner doesn't understand that leadership isn't just trying to twist arms into votes. Leaders set a courageous example. He got what he wanted though, he got to be Speaker for a while. Now he should be given enough cigarettes and gin (or whatever he soaks himself in) to keep him pacified until his constituents send him home.
Sep '12
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
My first thought was Allan West for Speaker, but unfortunately, he was defeated last month. But like the previous comment, someone unafraid, i.e., courageous enough to be confrontational, like a John Bolton or an Allan West, is needed. I'm sick to death of spineless jellyfish.
One of my Senators (Rubio) and my rep both voted NO against this abomination, and I've sent both emails today to thank them.
May '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
You lose the national election, you pay the consequence. As I remember it, the GOP controlled the House for zero days in the 1980s. Still, Reagan controlled the national agenda. I like Boehner. I know little about Cantor. If the Republicans are to be faulted, it is for their cynical abandonment of fiscal principle under Hastert and Bush 2. Our salvation lies in the aggressive assertion of State's sovereignty. The fiscally sound states must defy the Feds at very opportunity.
Sep '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
I guess what you are saying is that the GOP should have pretended they were against the bill, but made sure it passed and that this manipulation of the vote would have been better than not voting.
I am not aware of anyone who is clamoring for typical DC politics.
I think most people thought the GOP would cave at the last minute and Obama would get 90% of what he wanted.
I don't remember what the vote was on the debt ceiling/sequestration fiasco, but I seem to remember the GOP caving and Obama getting 90% of what he wanted.
I don't know what the vote will be two months from now for the next fiasco, but I'll bet money the GOP will cave at the last minute and Obama will get 90% of what he wants.
May '12
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Speaker of the House doesn't actually need to be an elected member of the House? Right?
I also agree with you that the GOP needs someone with a backbone. With that stated, I want either Allan West or John Bolton as SotH. Probably won't happen though.
Edited on January 2, 2013 at 11:13pmMay '11
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
If we are venturing outside the House, as an act of reconciliation with the Senate, Jim DeMint for Speaker.
May '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Generally Outvoted Party.
Elections matter. We have an education job before us. It won't change until we succeed there. Breitbart was right: culture is upstream from politics. We need to fight there.
Edited on January 2, 2013 at 10:10pmRe: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Boehner had two options (i) cut a deal with Democrats; or (ii) get blamed for an across the board tax hike. I wish it were otherwise, but the GOP would have been blamed.
As you know, Peter, I want the federal government reduced to its enumerated powers -- meaning that I favor HUGE cuts in spending. But as a strategic matter, I think that our message would have been hopelessly muddled if we became the party that allowed taxes to rise on the middle class.
Boehner didn't create the fiscal cliff, it was a combination of the temporary nature of the Bush tax cuts (so designed to avoid a Senate filibuster) and the awful Budget Control Act of 2011, which Boehner had tried to avoid with a "grand bargain," which, though imperfect, had such deep spending cuts that Obama eventually reneged.
I thought Boehner's Plan B would have put pressure on the Dems, but when the House rejected it, I think Boehner was right to support the best deal he could get.
Nov '11
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Adam Freedman
Boehner had two options .... (ii) get blamed for an across the board tax hike. I wish it were otherwise, but the GOP would have been blamed.
Not just "get blamed" but actually be responsible for an across the board tax hike. If you could prevent it and don't, you're morally responsible. It's not just about the politics.
Maybe Boehner's only been arguing based on the politics, and maybe that's part of the problem. His caucus might have listened better to a case based on moral responsibility than on political consequences.
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Adam Freedman
Boehner had two options (i) cut a deal with Democrats; or (ii) get blamed for an across the board tax hike. I wish it were otherwise, but the GOP would have been blamed. · 9 minutes ago
Well, yes. But I'm not criticizing Boehner for going along with the deal. I'm criticizing him for doing a really appalling job of managing the vote. Isn't counting noses a Speaker's first duty?
May '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Cantor's grandstanding does not impress me. Adam is correct, and governing is hard.
May '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Cantor for Speaker! I can see the elevated discourse of politics now... Angry Democrats yelling "Racists!" at angry Republicans yelling "Anti-Semite!"
Mar '12
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
If the criteria is avoiding blame, then the GOP should just agree to everything BO wants. The GOP will always be blamed for every problem by the echo chamber media. I certainly do not hear anyone giving the GOP credit for avoiding the fiscliff. Next, they will be blamed for calls to cut spending as a condition for raising the credit limit.
I do not accept the argument that taking "blame" for the fiscal cliff is a reason to agree to the bill as offered by the Senate. All Boehner has done is alienate his voter base without gaining any good policy outcome for the country. It would have been better for all taxes to go up so people would wake up to the fiscal crisis this country is in. This bill is just a placebo to make people believe that problems are being solved.
If Boehner is re-elected Speaker, the GOP is truly going into the "dust bin of history".
Dec '10
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Would someone please define (once and for all) what exactly constitutes being in the middle class? The new AMT amount for this year is $78,750, which I will hit this year as a single income family. And it's not like I'm some high finance mogul or anything; I drive trucks and cranes.
Nov '11
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
If I were Boehner, though, I would seriously consider resigning, on the grounds that it's impossible to be effective in the job. Some of that is his fault, and some not, but he clearly does not have the confidence of his caucus.
This whole thing has been a replay of the debt ceiling crisis, and is leaving us set up for another repeat. Partly I think Boehner needs to take some responsibility for that, and partly I think it's time for his opponents in the caucus to put up or shut up. If they are so much wiser and more principled, they need to propose a wiser and more principled way of dealing with the existence of a Democratic Senate and president. Saying "no" works for new policies. It doesn't do anything to mitigate the damage of existing ones.
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Peter Robinson
Well, yes. But I'm not criticizing Boehner for going along with the deal. I'm criticizing him for doing a really appalling job of managing the vote. Isn't counting noses a Speaker's first duty? · 36 minutes ago
I take your point, but I don't think that 40 GOP votes vs. 80 votes would have turned the House Republicans into the party of principle in the public's eye. If Boehner was behind the deal, I think he had to be all-in. Had he publicly opposed the deal and then tried to offer up 40 sacrificial lambs to vote for it, I thihnk the public perception would have been worse.
May '11
Re: Cantor for Speaker? (With a Hat Tip to John O'Sullivan)
Democrats get to give different messages to different groups. They would love the opportunity to wage an anti-Semitic campaign in 2014. It would energize their anti-Semite base and perhaps give them a chance to capture a few anti-Semites from the Republicans. Recall the George Allen is a crypto-Jew campaign (and allegedly anti-Semitic primary) waged on behalf of Jim Webb.
Edited on January 2, 2013 at 11:25pm