Can Newt Beat Obama?
I remain "skeptical but persuadable" that Newt could beat Obama.
Beating Obama is going to be tough for any Republican, period. The GOP brand remains "damaged goods" to an awful lot of voters and will remain a drag on any Republican candidate until more time has washed away memories of Tom Delay, Terri Schiavo, and, of course, GWB. The GOP "base" alone will not do it, unless the Democratic "base" is completely demoralized (e.g., 1980). I do not believe that is the case. Therefore, you must win the independents, and fairly significantly. This means either winning the upscale/suburban independents by a big margin and holding even or slightly better with the downscale/working class independents—or winning the downscale vote by a big enough margin to take states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and at least holding even in the suburbs.
Romney is a "natural fit" for the upscale suburban independents, and will make Obama's task with these voters tough. Thus, it comes down to Mitt vs. BHO among the working class whites—and while Mitt's no "natural" there, these people don't like BHO one bit. So it's plausible—not "in the bag," but plausible—that Mitt could pull this off.
On the other hand, I have a much harder time seeing Newt pull off a "win the independents" strategy—mostly because I think the upscale suburbanites will have a hard time trusting him as a sane and responsible leader. He would, I think, need to invest a lot just to hold even with these voters, leaving him little leverage with the downscale bloc. Alternatively, if Newt focuses on a "working whites" strategy, I think he gets clobbered in the suburbs, and probably ends up losing Pennsylvania and Michigan after all.
I'll say again what I said at the outset: show me a series of polls, from different sources, over a period of one to two months, with Gingrich even with or ahead of Obama. Then I will believe that he could win. Until then I remain "skeptical but persuadable."
- Comment (33)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments :
Jun '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
You give much more credence to polls than I.
If you have Mitt and Obama standing there in a debate, one might think that there is not much difference. Why not let the historical black president clean it up and finish out 8 years in office?
If you have a "bold color" difference in philosophy which Newt may or may not be, one might think that this can be a turn around from the direction the country is moving.
The discussion of whats best for this group or that group is not productive to the country. Do whats best for the only group that matters, the American citizens.
Jun '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
Are you saying that the last 3 years have not damaged the Democrat brand among the uncommitted? That is a stretch. Also some of his "base” have now been old enough to vote for a full 3 to 5 years - maybe they learned to read too. I personally see mitt as an intentional shape shifter. He comes across as insincere and self serving. He is my least favorite among those currently running. This from one of my father's recent emails:
"Romney", has long been identified by the medical profession as a kind of ringworm which infects the brain and manifests as an inability to walk in a straight line or to speak in anything but a circular fashion. Those infected with "Romney" can not state with certainty that a raw egg dropped off the Empire State Building will break when it hits the sidewalk. A person who has come down with "Romney" will only tell you that the egg "could" break or that "breakage remains a possibility in such a scenario."
Jun '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
In other words another slightly different flavor of of the same old thing.
I'm pretty sure that thinking people can forgive Newt for changing his mind on policies after working though them as thought experiments. The non-thinking however, worry me (Rhymes with grinch - ha ha).
Oct '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
I'm with Terrell on this one. You're putting entirely too much faith in polling data, Steve. They are snapshots in time that can be influenced markedly by campaign strategy and events that are completely uncontrollable to anyone.
Given Obama's negatives and his inability to run on his record, it's entirely possible for either Newt or Romney to beat him, but it will take a tremendous amount of hard work on their part. The biggest strike against Newt is that it's nigh-impossible to think of him running a general election campaign without scoring some amazing rhetorical own goals. Romney seems a bit more disciplined, but I'm increasingly starting to think he doesn't do well in public interviews and debates when directly challenged. If you can't handle Brett Baier...
May '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
No, he can't. Next question?
Newt is the reverse-Buckley candidate. To refresh newcomers, the Buckley Rule states "vote in the primary for the most conservative guy who can win the general."
In Newt we have the least conservative guy, who also can't win the general.
Sure, a ham sammich could maybe beat Obama; he's that vulnerable. But why risk maybe on a guy who's going to disappoint you, and you're going to get sick of hearing his lecture after about two weeks?
I was a Palin guy, then a Cain guy, now a Perry guy. So don't talk to me about elitists vs "true conservatives". I'll never be a Newt guy until we as a party make that decision.
When Mark Steyn has now joined Charles Krauthammer, George Will and ANN COULTER as RINO's, I'm happy to be in that club.
May '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
And did nobody see Perry's performances in the last three debates? Give him the ball. Put him in, coach. There's a market for the not-Mitt but dear sweet baby Jesus not Newt crowd. And he's got the cash to go the distance.
As Greg Gutfeld says, there's no I in Newt, but there is an ew.
Apr '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
Steve, very fine post, but I have a side question -- why do you write Terri Schiavo damaged the GOP brand?
Oct '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
I doubt the average voter remembers Schiavo or Delay. They do remember George W. Bush who did quite a bit of damage to the brand. Newt took a nice big bite of it also when he was Speaker, but I suspect much of that has been forgotten since then. I'm sure the Obama people will be nice enough to remind everyone what Newt is like when you give him power.
May '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
The Republican nominee will win going away, as they say, IF, they nominate someone that even the moderately engaged Republican enthusiast can become enthusiastic about. I had hoped to have a candidate that I could support not only with a yard sign and bumper sticker but with a willingness to sign up to man a phone bank or similar "get out the vote effort". I see little hope for that at this time.
Sep '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
A bold prediction: Newt will win the nomination, crush Obama and bring with him a Republican Senate.
Evidence: Romney won't break 30%, Newt's handling of the Palestinian questions last night, the coming Eurozone collapse from massive government overspending. He's got the polls, he can slay people in a debate, and we're about to see a crushing repudiation of statism.
President Gingrich. I like the sound of that.
May '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
Recently Yuval Levin, Pete Wehner, and the WSJ have all explained in some detail why the Romney plan to re-work Medicare is sound, conservative, and Ryan-friendly and Newt's is not.
If the historic opportunity we've been given requires proposing -- and then defending in the general election -- a conservative reform of the welfare state (of which Medicare is the largest, most dysfunctional element), why pray tell is Newt considered a better candidate than Romney, even forgetting electability considerations?
Second, Newt's also to Mitt's left on the other great issue in need of explication in the general election: the housing bust and its role in our current troubles. A majority still believes our dreadful economy was caused by hands-off gov't, when in fact it was the fault of hands-on gov't -- a truth America needs to know but a truth Newt is virtually incapable of addressing given his Freddie ties.
So aside from overturning Obamacare (on which all our guys agree), Newt's now 0 for 2 on the two biggest biggies of our "historic opportunity".
Therefore, why is he the "man for the moment"? Newt-supporting conservatives, please explain.
Apr '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
This to me is the decisive issue, and I can't believe so many conservatives are willing to just shrug away the fact that Newt was a paid lobbyist -oops, I meant "historian"- for the very entities that brought our economy crashing down. This should be absolutely disqualifying.
Edited on Dec 11, 2011 at 9:38amApr '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
Ross Douthat has a superb column today:
"But a fantasy is all it is. The American Spectator’s Quin Hillyer calls it “the fallacy of the master debater” — the belief that elections turn on dramatic rhetorical confrontations, in which the smarter and better-spoken candidate exposes his rival as a tongue-tied boob.
Newt Gingrich might debate circles around Obama. He might implode spectacularly, making a hot mess of himself while the president keeps his famous cool. But either way, setting up a grand rhetorical showdown seems unlikely to supply a disillusioned country with what it’s looking for from Republicans in 2012.
Conservatives may want catharsis, but the rest of the public seems to mainly want reassurance. They already know Barack Obama isn’t the messiah he was once cracked up to be. What they don’t know is whether they can trust anyone else to do better."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/11/opinion/sunday/douthat-professor-gingrich-vs-professor-obama.html?_r=1
May '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
Heck, I'm a committed Republican campaign worker. I am convinced another 4 years of Obama may well mean the ruin of our country, and the end of the USA as we know it. I'll be working for whoever wins the Republican nomination.
And even a wheelhorse like myself has a hard time trusting that Gingrich would be a sane and responsible leader.
Although give me a Republican win, and I'll risk the insanity.
May '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
Anyone involved with Fannie and Freddie ought to fear the specter of a jail cell. Like being governor of Illinois. You take that cash at great peril.
Mar '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
The only character that matters in the 2012 election is Obama. If I have to, I'll crawl across 5 miles of broken glass to vote him out of office, and after that, I'll deal with the aftermath of a Gingrich, or Romney or Bachmann presidency. Whatever that may be, it cannot be anything approaching the catastrophe that a second term of Obama would be.
Jun '10
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
If Newt reminds the average voter of anyone, he'll remind them of Bill Clinton. Is that supposed to scare independents? I don't think so.
Apr '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
That's the big problem with Gingrich. He takes the focus of Obama and puts it squarely on himself. Very few people outside the Republican base are going to find him appealing. And he will positively terrify the Nice White Ladies, and we have to get a large number of those to win.
I am sorta amused wondering what those women's magazine profiles and puff pieces on the prospective first lady will be like. Will Callista talk about how gracious and romantic Newt was when he took off his wedding ring before going up to her hotel room?
Mar '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
That's the big problem with Gingrich. He takes the focus of Obama and puts it squarely on himself. Very few people outside the Republican base are going to find him appealing. And he will positively terrify the Nice White Ladies, and we have to get a large number of those to win.
I am sorta amused wondering what those women's magazine profiles and puff pieces on the prospective first lady will be like. Will Callista talk about how gracious and romantic Newt was when he took off his wedding ring before going up to her hotel room? · Dec 11 at 10:12am
And I wonder what sort of person a philandering President Gingrich might appoint to the Supreme Court. As I did about the philandering President Clinton did, and the supposedly non-philandering President Obama has.
Jan '11
Re: Can Newt Beat Obama?
I also want to know what the Terri Schiavo incident has to do with tarnishing the GOP brand. I might agree but for very different reasons. Let me see if I can dig up a link to an old poll from the FreeRepublic to illustrate [might be difficult from my iPod Touch]