James Poulos just dropped me a note to ask what I made of David Frum's theory about David Cameron's astonishingly unctuous Ankara speech. (Actually, it's not Frum's theory, it's Frum's secret cynical French informant's theory, but that train of possessives would be hard to follow.) To appreciate just why the speech was so egregious--if it isn't already self-evident--I commend to your attention both Melanie Phillips' perfectly correct observations about it and those of Michael Weiss.

His cynical French friend, writes Frum,

suggests that I overlooked the likeliest motive for David Cameron’s flattering speech in Ankara:

British enthusiasm for Turkish entry into the EU is not a serious proposal, but a cunning wrecking mechanism.

Turkey will never be admitted to the EU, for at least 3 reasons:

1) Germany will not accept being demoted to the second-biggest block of delegates in the EU Parliament;

2) France and the poorer Central European countries will not accept ultra-low-wage competition from Turkish migrant workers;

3) Security services across the continent will not accept the risk of millions of Middle Eastern travelers crossing borders into Europe visa-free.

So why advocate what’s never going to happen? Because it offers a mode by which a Euroskeptic Conservative like Cameron can represent himself as ultra-pro-Europe to his LibDem coalition partners in Westminster and Britain’s Europhile media.

Sir Humphrey Appleby explained it all 25 years ago.

No, I don't think so. Points 1, 2, and 3 are correct, I suspect. But I doubt Cameron's intended audience is his LibDem coalition partners. That speech went way beyond anything required to keep the LibDems sweet. Nor is it Britain's Europhile media, though his remarks do seem to be playing reasonably well in the British media, but less because that media is Europhile than because it is not, shall we say, Semitophile. His opinions about Gaza are more or less the received British wisdom these days. I'm sure they will be most popular at home. No, I suspect the poor dunce really meant every word of it. It's just the sort of thing someone like him would really think. The thing about Cameron is he just doesn't know that much.

By the way, it's not just the Israelis who are apoplectic about his speech; the Greeks, too, are splitting a gut, not that anyone cares what they think in Greece, after all, there are no Jews involved in that whole Cyprus business, and as far as the media's concerned, the answer to the question, "How interested should we be?" is pretty simple--if there ain't no Jews, it just ain't news.

In sort of a weird twist, directly after lavishly buttering up the Turks, Cameron managed grievously to offend the Pakistanis by castigating them for being soft on terrorism. My take? Man's just winging it. He's out of his depth.

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Mark Lewis
Joined
Jun '10
Mark Lewis
Claire Berlinski: My take? Man's just winging it. He's out of his depth. ·

I was intrigued at Cameron's suggestion that Turkey merges East and West, as a model and a leader in unifying "polarised" views of the relationship between these cultures. What do you think of that section of his remarks Claire? It sounds like he also out of his depth here. Does he have that right, wrong, or both?

etoiledunord
Joined
Jun '10
etoiledunord

Cameron sounds like he's suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. Maybe the Turks locked him in a closet for 15 minutes, and that's all it took.

Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

Claire Berlinski:

British enthusiasm for Turkish entry into the EU is not a serious proposal, but a cunning wrecking mechanism.

Turkey will never be admitted to the EU, for at least 3 reasons:

1) Germany will not accept being demoted to the second-biggest block of delegates in the EU Parliament;

2) France and the poorer Central European countries will not accept ultra-low-wage competition from Turkish migrant workers;

3) Security services across the continent will not accept the risk of millions of Middle Eastern travelers crossing borders into Europe visa-free.

Again, I can't pass up an opportunity to share the wisdom of Margaret Thatcher's favorite TV show: on the European Union.

Scott Reusser
Joined
May '10
Scott Reusser
Claire Berlinski:. ...My take? Man's just winging it. He's out of his depth. ·

There's a lot of that going around. Other than Netanyahu, is there any world leader to whom this doesn't apply? Merkel, maybe? Sarkozy, kinda, sorta? Sheesh, we need leaders.

Devin Cole
Joined
May '10
Devin Cole

I don't know that much about Cameron but take my cue from Steyn in this area. That means I am not impressed to start with, and this speech just furthers this impression. Cameron is a Euro-squish who happened to fall into his current position. If I am not mistaken, he nearly found himself out in the cold following the most recent elections in Britain, demonstrating from the start his lack of leadership abilities. Why is anybody surprised that he is out of his depth?

Claire Berlinski

Mark LewisI was intrigued at Cameron's suggestion that Turkey merges East and West, as a model and a leader in unifying "polarised" views of the relationship between these cultures. What do you think of that section of his remarks Claire? It sounds like he also out of his depth here. Does he have that right, wrong, or both? · Jul 29 at 3:49pm

Well, yes, Turkey is geographically both in the East and the West; certainly it has been profoundly influenced by both Eastern and Western cultures. I can't disagree with that. But the significance of this is overstated; what people don't get is that Turkey is mostly something sui generis--a country with a unique culture and history that's neither Arabic nor European. And the peculiarities of that history and culture may just as easily mean that it is apt to find itself in conflict with both the East and the West.

tabula rasa
Joined
Jun '10
tabula rasa

Claire: I agree Cameron is in over his head. For a biting take-down of his speech , take a look at Melanie Phillips' take on the whole thing (I think I can safely say she thinks Cameron is naive and silly, and then makes a good case for the proposition). It's entitled "Weep for Britain: 1940 This is Not."

Check it out at: http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/6171324/weep-for-britain-1940-this-is-not.thtml

Claire Berlinski

Tabula, that's the same article I linked to in my post!

James Poulos, Ed.

Ross on your side, Claire: "No, Prime Minister."

Claire Berlinski

Yes, good piece.

tabula rasa
Joined
Jun '10
tabula rasa
Claire Berlinski: Tabula, that's the same article I linked to in my post! · Jul 30 at 2:44pm

Response: Duh! I'm a little slow today.

Mark Lewis
Joined
Jun '10
Mark Lewis

Claire Berlinski

 

; what people don't get is that Turkey is mostly something sui generis--a country with a unique culture and history that's neither Arabic nor European. And the peculiarities of that history and culture may just as easily mean that it is apt to find itself in conflict with both the East and the West. · Jul 30 at 8:50am

Here is the tricky bit of RealPolitik: Is there a realistic chance for the USA to create an alliance there? Is there a body politic with enough in common, sui generis, that we can demonstrate honor to it while also demonstrating the advantages of allying with us, both financially and culturally?

It seems to me that Turkey is a pivot for the region.

In your opinion/sense, is there a "there" there that we make a concerted effort to build partnership with, or is the anti-American sentiment already too permeated to make it possible? Second, is the method our state dept. is using consistent with that opportunity, or are they playing into the hands of those who want to turn Turkey against the USA?

Thanks for being such a cogent "woman on the ground!"

Claire Berlinski

Mark, I pretty much agree with everything Soner Cagaptay said to Congress recently. He's got it exactly right.

This suggests that the United States must develop a nuanced policy toward Turkey, which would involve scaling back the AKP and developing a real defense against its policies while engaging the Turks. The alternative, a policy that targets the whole of Turkey, such as passing the Armenian resolution or blocking military sales, would only push the Turks into the Islamists’ arms, fulfilling the AKP’s objective. In fact, what to do with Turkey first begs the question of what not to do with Turkey. In light of the AKP’s campaign of rallying Turkish public opinion behind its anti-Western foreign policy, the cardinal rule of the new era is simple: do not offend the Turks, or the Turkish republic, in other words, do no harm to Turkey.

Then, it is time to signal to the AKP that its anti-Western policies have a cost. To this end, Washington should deny the AKP political access—this will cost the party prestige that matters greatly in Turkish politics ...

Worth reading in full: He's right.

Mark Lewis
Joined
Jun '10
Mark Lewis

Great article/pdf Claire! Thank you - it is an incredible resource.

What do you think of Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Is he worth supporting, or is the enemy of our enemy not necessarily our friend?

Have you written any pieces that give a big picture view of what is going on in Turkey and why it matters to the USA you can direct me to?

Thanks again!


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