Peter Robinson · March 27, 2012 at 11:37pm

Adam, after looking over the transcripts of today's oral argument with your usual incision and insight, could you answer one question:  What the heck us up with Mr. Justice Kennedy?

I thought, as did a lot of people--including journalists, such as Jeffrey "This is a Train Wreck" Toobin, who were in the chamber itself--that Justice Kennedy seemed overtly, if genteely, hostile toward the individual mandate.  Yet some informed opinion begs to differ, insisting that by the end of the session the justice had changed his mind. 

Just get a load of this report on scotusblog.com, to which Ricochet member wmartin drew everyone's attention in a post earlier today.  Toward the end of the argument, the report explains, Justice Kennedy took up an argument in favor of the individual mandate that Justice Breyer had just mentioned:

“I think it is true that, if most questions in life are matters of degree [Justice Kennedy said]," it could be that in the markets for health insurance and for the health care for which insurance was the method of payment “the young person who is uninsured is uniquely proximately very close to affecting the rates of insurance and the costs of providing medical care in a way that is not true in other industries.  That’s my concern in the case.”

That was the core of Verrilli’s [that is, the solicitor general's] claim about what Congress had confronted,  and Kennedy had just phrased it — not as the government’s argument — but as his own perception.  In both tone and content, it was a sudden change.

To quote wmartin, "Kennedy ended the argument restating the Obama administration's case in his own words....we lost today."

Adam?

Comments:



Joined
Apr '11
wmartin

I really hate this. My heart was leaping along with Peter's when I heard the first reports out of the court. Hopefully, I am being too much of a pessimist.

DocJay
Joined
Jul '11
DocJay

My lawyer buddy told me two days ago that Wm Rehnquist would be reaching through time to influence  Justice Kennedy.  He was right.

CJRun
Joined
Dec '10
CJRun

Sorry, Peter, if you get excitable over anything Kennedy says.  My rule with him is to take two aspirin and check back in the summer.

Casey
Joined
Mar '11
Casey
wmartin: I really hate this. My heart was leaping along with Peter's when I heard the first reports out of the court. Hopefully, I am being too much of a pessimist. · 33 minutes ago

Pessimism is win-win... you either get to be right or happy.

Palaeologus
Joined
Jul '10
Palaeologus

It seems to me at least, that Carvin's response was well designed to sway someone who is a fair-minded, maybe not so principled,  practical type:

you do actuarial risk for young people on the basis of their risk for disease, just like you judge flood insurance on the homeowner's risk of flood. One of the issues here is not only that they're compelling us to enter into the marketplace, they're not -- they're prohibiting us from buying the only economically sensible product that we would want, catastrophic insurance...

So, Justice Kennedy, even if we were going to create exceptions for people that are outside of commerce and inside of commerce, surely we'd make Congress do a closer nexus and say, look, we're really addressing this problem; We want these 30-year-olds to get catastrophic health insurance.

And not only did they -- they deprived them of that option. And I think that illustrates the dangers of giving Congress these plenary powers, because they can always leverage them. They can always come up with some public policy rationale that converts the power to regulate commerce into the power to promote commerce...

ultra vires
Joined
Feb '11
ultra vires

Peter, they left out the sentences Kennedy said just before that comment:

"And the government tells us that's because the insurance market is unique. And in the next case, it'll say the next market is unique."  

Further, in an earlier question Kennedy said:

"(T)his is concerning is because it requires the individual  to do an affirmative act. In the law of torts, our tradition, our law has been that you don't have the duty to rescue someone if that person is in danger. The blind man is walking in front of a car and you do not have a duty to stop him, absent some relation between you. And there is some severe moral criticisms of that rule, but that's generally the rule.  And here the government is saying that the Federal Government has a duty to tell the individual citizen that it must act, and that is different from what we have in previous cases, and that changes the relationship of the Federal Government to the individual in a very fundamental way."

Pat in Obamaland
Joined
May '10
Pat in Obamaland

Peter, I wouldn't get too high or too low on the court proceedings. Yes, oral arguments will play a part but they are only a small part.  And after all, we conservatives face enormously long odds to have the individual mandate overturned in the first place.

Obamacare delenda est.

Matthew Gilley
Joined
May '10
Matthew Gilley

I am in the middle of a long series of depositions thanks to my day job. Keep the updates coming, and keep 'em short!

Adam Freedman

Hey, Freedman here.    It's hard to tell when any judge -- especially Kennedy -- is playing Devil's advocate or speaking from the heart.  Kennedy is certainly unpredictable, which is why it's not time to break out the champagne (I'm posting a brief audio summary of the argument in a minute).  As for Toobin, I just don't trust any of his pronouncements.  He's a sensationalist, and is setting up the argument that the "conservatives" had their minds made up going into the argument.

 But in the early part of the argument, Kennedy seemed to have more passion about his skepticism of the government's authority to fundamentally change the relationship of citizen and state via the Commerce Clause.   Who knows?  But I don't read the transcript as an intellectual journey in which Kennedy ends up persuaded by the Solicitor General.  The Solicitor General's presentation just wasn't that good.


Joined
Apr '11
Viator

Sotomayor:

"Can the government force you into commerce, and there is no limit to that clause?

http://mrctv.org/videos/justice-sotomayor-skeptical-about-claims-individual-mandate-isnt-justified-limitless-interpretation-commerce-clause

Adam Freedman
Palaeologus: It seems to me at least, that Carvin's response was well designed to sway someone who is a fair-minded, maybe not so principled,  practical type

An important point.  The Solicitor General was completely outgunned by Clement and Carvin.  If we assume Kennedy is persuadable, then there is still hope.   His comment is troubling, but it did not sound like a man who had been won over by the government.

John Marzan
Joined
Oct '10
John Marzan

Professor Althouse has a theory or a conspiracy theory on why the SG "is a train wreck". It is related to Obama's re-election chances.


Joined
Oct '11
E35852

It's mid semester so I'm half way through a Business Law class that I'm taking at community college.   After listening to the audio of yesterday's and today's oral arguments, I can't get over how, ummm, dense Sotomayor is.  The holes in her logic were so massive that someone with a minute fraction of the education she has (me) could see them.  Frankly, I'm kind of shocked. 

Barfly
Joined
Oct '11
Barfly

Casey

Pessimism is win-win... you either get to be right or happy. · 2 hours ago

Aw, man, take off those rose-colored glasses.

J. D. Fitzpatrick
Joined
Oct '10
J. D. Fitzpatrick
E35852: It's mid semester so I'm half way through a Business Law class that I'm taking at community college.   After listening to the audio of yesterday's and today's oral arguments, I can't get over how, ummm, dense Sotomayor is.  The holes in her logic were so massive that someone with a minute fraction of the education she has (me) could see them.  Frankly, I'm kind of shocked.  · 2 minutes ago

I didn't hear her, but I was disappointed by Scalia's question attempt to equate the govt's forcing you to buy health insurance with the govt's forcing you to buy broccoli. In that exchange, at least, he had the wrong analogy; the analogy to the govt's forcing you to buy broccoli would be the govt's forcing you to have diabetes surgery. That may be a long-term implication of this law, but it isn't what is proposed. Scalia sounded downright complacent in that exchange. 

(Thank goodness for the spell-checking of broccoli.) 

Blake
Joined
Oct '10
Blake

I have a bad feeling about this (that should be the unofficial motto of the conservative movement).

It seems inevitable that the plurality opinion will walk some tightrope that upholds the mandate, subject to a contrived limiting principle claiming that this kind of mandate is only valid in the health insurance context, because health insurance is special.

And future courts will obviously throw that limitation right out the window, because it's crazy on its face.

Mandatory calisthenics for all!!!

But maybe I'm wrong.

Matthew Lawrence
Joined
Aug '10
Matthew Lawrence

I think Blake is dead right. Any significant limitation on the commerce clause was lost in the sick chicken case. It is congress who must repeal this abomination and every other bit of do-gooder legislation of the past eighty years that plainly oversteps the common sense meaning of the commerce clause. But it won't because the American people tolerate that congressional crap year in and year out.

Edited on March 28, 2012 at 4:22am
Instugator
Joined
Aug '10
Instugator

I love how we are asking the Lawyers if the court should allow the individual mandate.

I am (have been) a soldier my entire adult life. There have been times when I have advocated compulsory universal service. I have not done so since I realized that such compulsory service is akin to slavery - yet it remains within our country for limited periods a requirement for service to the state (both the Draft and Jury Duty fit this definition - both are for limited periods of time)

The Individual Mandate is a requirement for involuntary servitude (slavery) for the life of each individual - and the court treats the arguments in favor of it as though they are worthy of both discussion and perhaps merit.

Shameful.

Edited on March 28, 2012 at 4:37am
Matthew Lawrence
Joined
Aug '10
Matthew Lawrence

For some reason, I can't edit on the ipad. My previous post is corrected thusly: I think Blake is dead right. Any significant limitation on the commerce clause was lost in Wickerd v. Philburn. It is congress who must repeal this abomination and every other bit of do-gooder legislation of the past eighty years that plainly oversteps the common sense meaning of the commerce clause. But it won't because the American people tolerate that congressional crap year in and year out. Quite frankly, most Americans want a nanny state.

DocJay
Joined
Jul '11
DocJay

Kennedy is not going to destroy this country. If this garbage flies then virtually anything will. I think he was trying to be polite after the SG was wallowing in stupidity all day just as Sotomeyor was being polite to the other conservative justices before she rules for her buddy.


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