Those who said the Tunisia revolution couldn't spread may wish to revise those predictions. 

The Washington Post is running a Twitter feed translator (not sure where these are coming from, given reports of the block) and a live stream of downtown Cairo (which is now ominously offline). 

Live updates here.  A few Tweets that struck me:

Hillary Clinton on #Egypt unrest: "we urge all parties to exercise restraint" That's usually what they say before the storm hits. #jan25about 1 hour ago via web

Saw Muhamed Baltagi from the Muslim Brotherhood but otherwise protests were had very little, indeed almost no religious overtones. #jan25about 1 hour ago via web

Just left tahrir square. Tear gas being bombed and all mobile lines not working mostly #jan25less than a minute ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

Armed forces in #Egypt have abandoned shock-sticks for more potent weapons, crowds are massing. Pictures of leader burned. #jan25

Pictures of Husni Mubarak have been torn down in public. 100+ arrested. 3 Major news channels prevented from covering #Egypt #jan25

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Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque

I wonder how this plays in Persia.

Claire Berlinski, Ed.

How it's playing in Egypt is question enough.

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque

Peggy Noonan in 2004 famously likened despots of Mubarak's ilk to garbage-can lids, worth supporting if they could keep the chaos of their societies contained. With the suicide bombing of the Coptic church, perhaps Mubarak's people have decided he's not even serving the purpose of garbage-can lid effectively anymore.

"Après moi, le deluge" is only a good argument for being retained in power if it isn't simultaneous with "avec moi, le deluge."

Edited on Jan 25, 2011 at 10:12am
Paul A. Rahe

If this grows, Mubarak and his family may flee -- but it is the army that will take over.

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque
Paul A. Rahe: If this grows, Mubarak and his family may flee -- but it is the army that will take over. · Jan 25 at 10:29am

Is the Egyptian Army inclined to take over, as opposed to standing aside for either the Muslim Brotherhood or for a popular democratic uprising?  And if the Army does take over, will the military seek to run the country for an extended period, transition to democracy quickly, install a dictator or facilitate the Islamization of the government?

I imagine that the Egyptian Army wants little to do with Hamas and is disinclined to provoke war with Israel -- but is that just wishful thinking?

Sisyphus
Joined
Jul '10
Sisyphus

There are tweets suggesting that the army has declined the order to charge at Tahrir Square.

Vodaphone land-based Internet is still up, although other providers are down. Residents are opening their wireless networks so that people in the area can maintain communications.

PS: Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt,...

Edited on Jan 25, 2011 at 12:05pm
Kennedy Smith
Joined
May '10
Kennedy Smith
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: Those who said the Tunisia revolution couldn't spread may wish to revise those predictions. 

Hey, that was below the belt.

The State Department could save a lot of ink and a great deal more dignity if they just said "no comment" rather than "we urge all parties to exercise restraint".  Any party that for some reason heeded that call would get its butt kicked.  Isn't that what we urged during the Green Non-Revolution?  And the invasion of Georgia?  And everywhere except Honduras?  No wonder we get snickered at.

Tristan Abbey
Joined
Jan '11
Tristan Abbey

Suez...Cairo...

Edited on Jan 27, 2011 at 2:11pm
Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

If the situation in Egypt gets worse, I expect crackdowns in other nations in the region.

flownover
Joined
Aug '10
flownover

Fascinating thing to "watch" on Twitter ! @mfatta7 was broadcasting until gassed and his last transmission was "have been beaten alot". Now his location is much debated on the feed. In lieu of a camera with Robert Capa behind it, we have instantaneous feed from the streets and balconies of Cairo and Alexandria.

And the same noncommittal yawning noises coming from Foggy Bottom.

Do we have a dog in this fight ? Do we care ? Do we care more than our government ? Will there be a mention about people struggling, dying to be free in the countries of our allies, the recipients of billions in aid ? Especially tonight in the SOTU ?

Kevin Walker
Joined
Aug '10
Kevin Walker

It's almost as if there were a "beacon" of some sort in the Middle East, showing that self-determination and democracy are possible in an Arab state--that there could be a post-autocratic order much preferable to dictatorship. But as to the identity of this beacon, I have no idea.

Sisyphus
Joined
Jul '10
Sisyphus

Beacon? This is undoubtedly more perfidy perpetrated by Claire's infamous cats.

Franco
Joined
Sep '10
Franco

I used to live a few blocks from Tahir Square I'm not up on modern Egyptian politics - although I can't imagine much has changed, but I do know there are tens of thousands of young men with nothing to do and nowhere to go who love to come out and protest and carry on. If they really are rebelling and not just partying Cairene style, there is no force that can stop them  just too many people....

CJRun
Joined
Dec '10
CJRun

Claire, I have no idea how I might convey the significance of this to the people, around me.  Right now, we are under a tornado watch.

America ignored the Cedar Revolution and the Greens in Iran.  They know nothing of the Russian moves in Georgia.

The other day, I was driving my Baby home and she observed the white lettering across the top of an uncoming pick-up truck that said, "Big White Cracker", and she said, "Oh my"!  I let her know that he's in front or behind me, most days, when I drop our youngest off in front of the elementary school.  And he's not that big; I'm much bigger, but I have a smaller truck.

I know you want people to pay better attention to what is happening around the world, but I need your help.  Were I to post a link to this to facebook, it would get lost, amongst people with other concerns.  Like tornadoes.

May I request a post that is a distillation of the recent past and a summary of the present that might help me to get the attention of my friends and loved ones, that might punch through?

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque
Franco: I used to live a few blocks from Tahir Square I'm not up on modern Egyptian politics - although I can't imagine much has changed, but I do know there are tens of thousands of young men with nothing to do and nowhere to go who love to come out and protest and carry on. If they really are rebelling and not just partying Cairene style, there is no force that can stop them  just too many people.... · Jan 25 at 4:49pm

There reaches a point when the young men realize that they will NEVER have anything more to do than come out and protest and carry on... or vegetate at home or on the streetcorner... and they decide that there really must be more to life that that.  The young men of Tunisia reached that breaking point, and the Cairene young men may just have reached theirs.

Pseudodionysius
Joined
Sep '10
Pseudodionysius
Sisyphus: Beacon? This is undoubtedly more perfidy perpetrated by Claire's infamous cats. · Jan 25 at 3:08pm

We're an official oppressed minority group here on Ricochet and have retained Epstein and Yoo to represent us. You will be served shortly. Be afraid.

Claire Berlinski, Ed.

CJRun: Claire, I have no idea how I might convey the significance of this to the people, around me.  Right now, we are under a tornado watch.

I know you want people to pay better attention to what is happening around the world, but I need your help.  Were I to post a link to this to facebook, it would get lost, amongst people with other concerns.  Like tornadoes.

May I request a post that is a distillation of the recent past and a summary of the present that might help me to get the attention of my friends and loved ones, that might punch through? · Jan 25 at 4:49pm

Yes. Maybe Judith and I can work on this together. 


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