Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
PPP has some new polling data out that affirms what some have posited in the comments to Rob's post below: Cain voters really love Gingrich, and would flock to him should Cain drop out of the race.
Our last national survey found that Gingrich's favorability with Cain voters was 73/21. Meanwhile Romney's was 33/55. That's the same basic trend we've seen in every Republican primary poll we've done in the month of November. On average in 7 polls we've done this month Gingrich's favorability with Cain voters is 69/22. Romney's average is 31/57. In other words Gingrich's net favorability is 73 points better with Cain supporters than Romney's.
...Given how much more Cain supporters like Gingrich than Romney, it's not surprising that most of them say Gingrich is their second voting choice behind Cain. On average across six polls we've asked a second choice question on this month 37% of Cain voters pick Gingrich to only 13% for Romney. In fact Romney isn't any more likely to be the second choice of Cain supporters than Michele Bachmann (14%) or Rick Perry (12%).
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Dec '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
This confirms my suspicion that Romney is third choice or worse for a significant number of primary voters. Exactly how is he inevitable with less than 25% support, especially if it comes down to a two way race?
Aug '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
Given the email I received from the CA GOP this morning, it looks like they did a poll of their active online community. I imagine the methodology was similar to our own internal "Ricochet Polls."
According to the survey, the favored candidates of this sample were:
Newt Gingrich 43%
Mitt Romney 21%
Herman Cain 21%
Ron Paul 4%
Rick Perry 4%
Michele Bachmann 3%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Other .6%
Gary Johnson .4%
California's primary is late in the process, but this does make me wonder if Newt might end up as the nominee.
Personally, I'm sad to see it. Newt is too much infected with Potomac fever for my tastes. As Tom Coburn pointed out in his 2003 book, Gingrich secured $450 million for 7 C-130J transport planes when the Pentagon only ordered one. Seems to me that Gingrich is a typical bring home the bacon politician.
Apr '11
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
What effect will Newt's lack of organization have on the early primaries? On Fox News Sunday this past week, the panel was still not taking his chances very seriously because he is so far behind in putting together a campaign apparatus. Have we entered a new phase of American campaigning where those things don't matter as much as they used to, due to these incessant debates and the internet?
I know Romney can raise enough money to be competitive in the general..can Newt raise enough to weather Obama's 700 million+ assault?
Edited on Nov 29, 2011 at 12:40pmDec '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
The R will probably go with public financing in the general. Obama is the only candidate since the option to opt out.
Aug '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
Newt's only chance is to go for the early knock out against Romney. He simply does not have the organization or the resources to go the distance in an extended slugfest.
Sep '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
Count me in that group. I used to be a Cain supporter and now I'm in favor of Mr. Newt.
Sep '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
I think the popularity of both Newt and Cain suggests that there are new mechanisms at work in the primaries and that organization doesn't count as much as it used to.
If Romney ends up losing this, the reaction of the political professionals will be interesting to see.
Apr '11
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
And I can only imagine what the reaction of the primary voters will be when they realize what they just woke up next to.
All of 2012 will be spent having to muster defenses of our nominee instead of attacking Obama.
Feb '11
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
Romney will be a terrific president. He is an honorable man. We can only admire the moral life that he has led. That it took time for his political philosophy to develop is understandable for a businessman engrossed in building enterprises in which government played a minor role. His first venture with Kennedy for the Senate was tentative and a learning experience in which he did not do too well. Otherwise, his record is one of success until the 2008 campaign; if he had been the nominee we would not be faced with the horror Obama has created. I have every confidence he will govern as he now speaks. He can lift us out of the morass into which Obama has driven the country. We need someone who has confidence the private sector can and will bring the American economy back to health, creating millions of jobs by peeling away the governmental obstructions that stand in the way. Agreed, he's not charismatic or warm and fuzzy, but he's a good man we can count on. IMHO.
Jul '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
wmartin
All of 2012 will be spent having to muster defenses of our nominee instead of attacking Obama. · Nov 29 at 1:41pm
All of [insert year of election] will be spent having to muster defenses of [insert Republican nominee] instead of attacking [insert democrat nominee].
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
What you mean by success is that Mitt Romney won one election.
Aug '10
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
Paul A. Rahe
What you mean by success is that Mitt Romney won one election. · Nov 29 at 6:37pm
And declined to run for re-election, knowing he would be trounced.
Edited on Nov 29, 2011 at 6:51pmApr '11
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
Paul A. Rahe
What you mean by success is that Mitt Romney won one election. · Nov 29 at 6:37pm
You don't think that Staples, Domino's Pizza, the Sports Authority, or any of his other dozens of ventures are successes? The SLC Olympics? There's value to be found in value creation as well as in politics.
Apr '11
Re: Cain's Loss Is Gingrich's Gain
wmartin: What effect will Newt's lack of organization have on the early primaries? On Fox News Sunday this past week, the panel was still not taking his chances very seriously because he is so far behind in putting together a campaign apparatus. Have we entered a new phase of American campaigning where those things don't matter as much as they used to, due to these incessant debates and the internet?
I know Romney can raise enough money to be competitive in the general..can Newt raise enough to weather Obama's 700 million+ assault? ·
Mitt doesn't have a huge Iowa organization either, and Iowa has a uniquely large and well organized anti-Mormon constituency. The NH Union Leader support for Newt is a very big deal in NH. South Carolina also has well organized groups to GOTV, and Florida is a media state for both. Newt can't win Michigan, or Nevada, and will struggle in AZ, but there's time to build a Super Tuesday campaign, with both sides having money.
Mitt will win over time because he's the better candidate more than because of his current organization.