Bullet Train to Nowhere
The LATimes reports -- brace yourselves -- that the proposed bullet train connecting the LA basin with the San Francisco Bay Area is now twice as expensive and will take twice as long to build. Hard to believe, right? From the LATimes:
California's bullet train will cost an estimated $98.5 billion to build over the next 22 years, a price nearly double any previous projection and one likely to trigger political sticker shock, according to a business plan scheduled to be unveiled Tuesday.
In a key change, the state has decided to stretch out the construction schedule by 13 years, completing the Southern California-to-Bay Area high speed rail in 2033 rather than 2020.
But we need to build this kind of stuff, right? I mean, our infrastructure is crumbling. Isn't that the phrase? Our crumbling infrastructure?
Not really, says Charles Lane in the WaPo. He argues that the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, which lists America's infrastructure as 23rd in the world, behind Barbados, looks at it the wrong way. When you compare countries of similar size, you get a different ranking:
When you compare America’s WEF rankings with those of the 19 other largest countries, it stands second only to Canada, which is lightly populated — and whose infrastructure is linked with ours.
Among the 20 most populous countries, the United States ranks behind France, Germany and Japan, in that order. This would seem to confirm the case for U.S. inferiority in the developed world.
But France and Germany, in addition to being substantially smaller than the United States, are part of the European Union, a borderless single market from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. Sure enough, when you average out the scores of all 27 E.U. nations, the United States beats them by a clear margin.
The WEF produced its rankings based on a survey in which business executives were asked to rate their respective countries’ infrastructure on an ascending scale of 1 to 7.
Barbados’s 5.8 average score means that paradise’s execs are a smidgen happier with their infrastructure than are their American counterparts, who gave the United States an average score of 5.7. This is a “national disgrace”? Barbados has one commercial airport. The United States has more than 500.
Still, we should spend more, right? Ask Japan:
After its economic bubble burst, Japan tried to restart growth with more than $6 trillion in infrastructure spending between 1991 and 2008. It ended up with little to show for it but a swollen national debt and lots of bridges to nowhere.
And that's where we are now -- wait, excuse me, that's where we'll be in 2033, when the train is now scheduled to be running.
Money spent with nothing to show for it.
That should be the epitaph of the Obama administration.
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Oct '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
The Japan part is really what speaks to the truth. When most of the developed world was seeing a massive expansion in the 90's, they saw a downturn due to their 507 billion dollar 'stimulus' bill. This screams of the congressman questioning Mr Shiff in his testimony before congress about investing in our infrastructure and crap.
Aug '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Also, keep in mind that Canada's score is an average of all the provinces, but the quality and age of infrastructure is NOT uniform across the provinces. The bridges and overpasses in and around Montreal are dangerously falling apart. In other parts of the country, not so much.
These sorts of reports that rank countries on various indicators are really terrible at recognizing that countries with a federal system that delegate certain areas of spending (such as infrastructure) to the states/provinces/etc are different than countries where everything is the responsibility of the central government.
Should Washington (or Ottawa) take the blame if a few states (or provinces) bring down the country's rank in some UN report?
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 4:21pmJun '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
This story has Newfie Bullet written all over it.
Apr '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Rule of thumb for Rail Projects (Public): Multiply initial cost estimates by 4 and divide initial ridership estimates by 4. The CA project is on track with the 4 times cost estimate already.
If the thing ever gets built, the ridership estimate will change just before opening, and the train declared a success.
In Sonoma County we have our train to nowhere project as well. It finally passed last year after adding a bike lane to the project. Due to cost overruns and revenue shortfalls the initial phase has been shortened.
To get to San Francisco will require
1) driving to the train station,
2) taking the train to Marin County,
3) taking a bus to the ferry,
4) taking a ferry to San Francisco,
5) and then when in San Francisco, taking a bus or trolley to your destination.
Once it is complete, you can cut out one bus ride....
Aug '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Here's the argument against the train in one link:
http://www.southwest.com/flight/select-flight.html?disc=0%3A13%3A1320248878.046000%3A8331%407DED98044A8FE980CAB60B6D092D850E3F1416F3&ss=0&int=&companyName=&cid=
Jun '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
And this is before they even have all the land rights to build the thing. There is a huge eminent domain issue looming over this and there has been strong evidence that people who supposedly want this monstrosity would never give up their land to allow it through. I just don't see it happening.
On another note, I constantly here that infrastructure is terrible in the U.S. Living in Oregon, that statement is puzzling since our infrastructure, with a couple exceptions, is pretty good. Having traveled little to the East coast, my observations are that things are worse there since everything is just older. Is that what people are talking about? If they're talking about the New York subway, I could be sympathetic, but otherwise, I have a hard time seeing it.
Dec '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Dave - please tell me you're not referring to MAX. That boondoggle competes well with unemployment benefits in the state for tossing money into the dumpster.
Apr '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Aloha Johnny: Rule of thumb for Rail Projects (Public): Multiply initial cost estimates by 4 and divide initial ridership estimates by 4. The CA project is on track with the 4 times cost estimate already.
If the thing ever gets built, the ridership estimate will change just before opening, and the train declared a success.
In Sonoma County we have our train to nowhere project as well. It finally passed last year after adding a bike lane to the project. Due to cost overruns and revenue shortfalls the initial phase has been shortened.
To get to San Francisco will require
1) driving to the train station,
2) taking the train to Marin County,
3) taking a bus to the ferry,
4) taking a ferry to San Francisco,
5) and then when in San Francisco, taking a bus or trolley to your destination.
Once it is complete, you can cut out one bus ride.... · Nov 2 at 8:47am
There's now a petition to repeal the sales tax for the SMART line, which is causing its supporters to get in a tizzy. The big scandal, however, is the pay of SMART's director.
Apr '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Full disclosure here: I work for an engineering firm doing the civil work for SMART.
Aug '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Well, you're just looking at the difficulties once the train enters the densely populated areas of Silicon Valley and Los Angeles county. On the plus side it should be a lot easier for the state to get title to the huge mountain range between Bakersfield and LA that this thing is somehow supposed to go through.
May '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
{sarcasm}Hey don't knock all the spending here in Japan, as someone who did a lot of motorcycle touring I loved all the wonderful beautiful roads that are baby bum smooth and go nowhere, so they have NO traffic on them!!!{/sarcasm}
No seriously, you would not believe the amazing roads I've ridden that go nowhere, and I mean the start no where go to somewhere no one is, and then via a long winding route, go back to the start of no where...... seriously......
Apr '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
What is it with the left and trains? Is it that they can pretend they are in Europe when they are riding a train? Or what?
I honestly don't get it.
Dec '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Charlotte: What is it with the left and trains? Is it that they can pretend they are in Europe when they are riding a train? Or what?
I honestly don't get it. · Nov 2 at 10:08am
It's all about control - when you're driving your personal car, you get to make the determination of where you're going and how you're going to get there. With trains, the gov't gets to make those decisions. All rail traffic - be it passenger or freight - in this country is either a completely government run entity or heavily subsidized by the government.
Jun '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
The Great Adventure!
Dave - please tell me you're not referring to MAX. That boondoggle competes well with unemployment benefits in the state for tossing money into the dumpster. · Nov 2 at 9:23am
No, no, no! I wasn't thinking about MAX at all. I was thinking more about roads, power infrastructure, etc. With the exception of the Interstate and Sellwood bridges, things aren't that bad. I wish they'd widen roads around here, but unfortunately, widening means adding bike lanes according to our leftist community.
Apr '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
There's a bit of control there. Also, trains are big projects with a large footprint. So like coliseums and convention centers, public officials can point at them and go, "I made this happen!" Since trains have the capacity to move large amounts of people, they can claim they are doing something to alleviate traffic congestion.
Unfortunately, like most publicly planned projects, there's none who look to see if there's a demand for said project. They work on "Field of Dreams" demand: If we build it, they will come.
The MAX line of Portland is a prime example of this. It works, the trains tend to run well, but the operating costs of running the trains far exceeds fares collected from riders.
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 6:47pmJul '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
I must agree with Stu. When it comes to enjoyable and stress-free transportation, Japan's big-spending policies and quality-obsessed culture has the rest of the world beat hollow. From the legendary shinkansen right down to old local lines, some of which are still known as "electrified rail", the impeccable train service is beyond imagination for those of us who have yet only been privy to Amtrak. And the roads - oh the roads - of Japan. For you California "canyon racers", you don't know a thing about mountain driving till you've barreled down Irohazaka or Tochigi's Rte. 15, both of which are roads to nowhere up a mountain.
But back to previous question, is any of this really surprising? Cost overruns and delays are part and parcel with big public works projects. What strikes me as odd is the fact that they figured out so soon that it's going to cost way more than predicted and take a lot longer. Then again, maybe it's just a PR goof; normally, they would wait until they were several years and several billion dollars into the project to announce that the initial projections were way off.
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 6:48pmDec '10
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
C. U. Douglas:
The MAX line of Portland is a prime example of this. It works, the trains tend to run well, but the operating costs of running the trains far exceeds fares collected from riders. · Nov 2 at 10:40am
Edited on Nov 02 at 10:47 am
Glad to hear that you & Dave are on the same page as I am about MAX. If you haven't seen it before, CATO did a fabulous take down of it a few years ago. Every resident of Portland - or any other city considering light rail transit lines - should read the full pdf that is downloadable off of this link.
Apr '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Sounds like TGA!, Dave M., and C.U. need to organize a Rico soiree in the greater Portland metro area.
They can take the MAX to the meeting point.
Mar '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
I remember when I was a kid all the discussion about a train from Cape Canaveral to Disney and the Orlando Intl. Airport, mostly for Disney. Disney did not want to pay for any of it, so it was axed. Instead Disney uses buses on the exact same toll route, that for 36 years has only be congested when there is a hurricane evacuation or a shuttle launch. Saved taxpayers a lot of money and Disney picks up all the cost.
I thought it was great that our Governor rejected the money to build the worthless Orlando to Tampa rail, which would of lost money when the State took it over after 10 years. Here in Orlando everyone is so happy about the light rail is finally being built. It is just going to be a money loser like it is in Broward/Dade county. I would of been all for the money it it would of been used to widen I-4.
I think the way to go is how I-95 is in Northern Virginia. A two lane HOV which is separate by barriers. A lot more flexibility at a fraction of the price.
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 7:20pmMar '11
Re: Bullet Train to Nowhere
Charlotte: What is it with the left and trains? Is it that they can pretend they are in Europe when they are riding a train? Or what?
I honestly don't get it. · Nov 2 at 10:08am
It is as much the voters from all sides as politicians. Here in Florida it has actually been in our constitution (since 2000) by a voter ballot (which required 60% to pass) that the 5 major urban areas have to be connected by high speed rail. The legislator has limited what they are willing to spend on this project. I don't know how many people have I talked with think it is a great idea.
I bring up light rail in Miami only covers 16% of its operating cost and people just shrug their shoulder.
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 7:44pm