Bombs Away!
Over at my second favorite website, NRO, Jonah Goldberg links to this article in Commentary, by Bret Stephens, entitled "Iran Cannot be Contained." (The title says it all; but it's an interesting article, worth reading the whole thing.)
Jonah, typically, has something smart to say:
Arguments like this tend to get ignored not because they aren't persuasive, but because they are. The political and psychological costs of accepting the premise are too high. So, denial inevitably triumphs.
So: another round of sanctions against Iran. Talks and more talks. But we all know where this ends, right? Iran has a bomb, which they will use for international blackmail.
And now we see that Jordan is getting into the act. They're interested in developing their non-military nuclear power capacity. But we all know where this leads.
Thought experiment: is this such a bad thing? If Iran's going to get nukes (and they are), isn't it in our interests for Jordan to have a couple, too? And maybe it's time for Israel to tell the world what it already knows -- they have nukes, too. It's time, as Jonah puts it, to stop denying reality.
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Re: Bombs Away!
If we could stop things there, Rob, I'd be willing to give proliferation a chance. But it won't. Iran can be contained, but the nukes can't be. This is totally unlike the Cold War environment, in which we really did get a lid on proliferation, and some nations even abandoned (!) their nuclear programs. Now, as the vile AQ Khan episode revealed, we can rest assured: if Iran gets the bomb, it will proliferate directly; but it will also indirectly cause other regimes to proliferate. The Saudis, the Egyptians, the Jordanians -- every Arab country troubled by the thought of a Shi'a nuclear monopoly will activate nuclear programs posthaste. We already know how icky it is to worry about the fate of Pakistan's nukes. Try worrying about how well the despots of the Middle East can control their own.
May '10
Re: Bombs Away!
I agree with James. I'm not sure how much of a deterrent the MAD scenario is with the cast of possible players. It only takes one coward with a major itch to drop the Ice-9. And I don 't think the first delivery and detonation will be made by rocket. Something less suspicious such as by person, car, truck or boat.
Which goes to vulnerabilty. Is any city really safe? Apparently, these rogue actors are safer bets than the Great Satan to possess WMD. Its a madness for sure. Wonder what the Vegas line is for the "city most likely to be blown-up by nuclear device?"
"Want of foresight, the unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, the lack of clear thinking, the confusion of consul until emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong."