Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
In other non-birther political news, the "Gray Lady" has looked at the Republican field of presidential hopefuls and decided there's such a thing as a "wimp factor", given the number of GOP officials who've opted against a run.
The Times lists Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker (seriously?) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (hmm) as six examples of Republicans with commitment problems.
Why the disinterest? The Times sez its a combination of an incumbent president who's too darn popular and too darn rich . . . and Republicans afraid of their own media shadow.
Here's the NYT's reasons 1-5:
1. Biden. If Mr. Obama wins re-election, there is almost zero chance that Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. would run for the presidency in 2016, when he would turn 74 years old. That puts him in the same place where Vice President Dick Cheney was in 2008. That means that Republicans who can afford to wait until 2016 can assure themselves not only that they will not face an incumbent Democratic president, but also that they won’t face a sitting vice president.
2. The economy. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings have dipped below 50 percent, but he remains personally popular and by many calculations the economy appears to be improving — if slowly. Even Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and one of the handful of very likely candidates, said last September that Mr. Obama would be “difficult to beat” if the economy continued improving, which he predicted it would. (He later changed his tune and said Republicans should focus on the economy if they wanted to win.)
3. Money. Mr. Obama is expected in some quarters to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign, and he has no serious primary opposition, which means he will be free to aim that firepower at his Republican adversaries. For a potential challenger, that raises the stakes for fund-raising at a time when more outside groups are competing for the same dollars, many of which, even on the Republican side, would go to congressional races.
4. The Tea Party. The emergence of the Tea Party movement as a force inside the Republican Party requires potential presidential candidates to pick sides in an intraparty philosophical struggle. The risks are clear for some Republicans who may have to alter or modify earlier positions to get through a contentious primary. Less clear are the benefits of having that support during a general election, especially if it means alienating independents in the process. Some of the most high-profile Tea Party candidates in 2010 did not fare so well in the general election.
5. The media glare. Candidates for president have always had to contend with scrutiny from the press. But the intense, Internet-driven political environment in 2011, when everyone has a camera phone and every offhand comment can be recorded, is enough to scare away even the most hearty of politicians. Mr. Barbour’s family apparently hated the idea of his running for president (though reports suggest that they had made peace with the idea, were he to have run). Candidates who have been on the fence about making a run often consider the consequences to their privacy if they do."
The truth is: no one us know why individuals decide not to pull the trigger on presidential runs. Take the case of Haley Barbour. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, himself likely an announced candidate this time next week, suggested that Barbour must think President Obama is unbeatable. Barber himself talked about lacking the fire in the belly to engage in what he described as a "ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion all else.
Two thoughts:
1) On those occasions when aspiring candidates have asked my advice on running, I recommend jotting down on a piece of paper the name of the last person you'd want to see, in public, saying bad things sbout you. Maybe it's the grocery checker who rats you out for taking 16 items into the 15-or-less express lane. Or maybe it's the Auschwitz survivor whose life savings you squandered in a Ponzi scheme. This will tell you a lot about skeletons in the closet.
2) Not running because the Magic 8 Ball, 18 months ahead of the vote, says the election is over before it really begins? That's sheer folly. Go back to April 1991, the third spring of Bush 41's first and only term. George H.W.'s approval rating, per the Gallup Poll: 79%. Ronald Reagan's approval rating in April of his third year in office: 42%. Reagan soared; Bush tanked. The point is: fortunes change. And there's no reward for the timid. Just ask Presidents Bill Bradley and Mario Cuomo, both of whom took a pass on running in 1992 and lost their place in line to Bill Clinton.
What's your hunch? Come 2013, will these non-running Republicans regret their decision?
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Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
The Gray Lady is running interference for Obama -- who is not doing at all well in the polls. Economic growth is slowing; unemployment is not dropping appreciably. S&P has warned about a possible downgrade of US government debt. Bernanke's quantitative easing has inflated the stock market, but it has not much affected unemployment, and it has contributed to commodity inflation. The price of gasoline has gone through the roof. The editors at the Gray Lady either live in an alternative universe or they want their readers to go there. See my post below.
Our bench for 2012 is thin. Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee -- they are all implausible. Pawlenty has yet to show his stuff. The race card would have been played against Barbour to devastating effect.
But there are others offstage who are real comers. We need to bring them onstage. More about this tomorrow in a post I have yet to write.
Edited on Apr 27, 2011 at 12:40pmJul '10
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
This ridiculous. None of the candidates on that list - with the possible exception of Christie - ever had any real hope of unseating Obama. Barber is too cornpone; Thune too green and too openly evangelical; Pence too provocative on social issues; Jeb Bush is, um, a Bush; Corker a non-entity.
This is like asking why Kenneth has decided not to try out for quarterback of the San Francisco 49r's.
Jun '10
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
I don't blame anybody for not running. You have to want it soooo bad. So bad, that you're willing to put yourself (and your whole extended family) through a 24-hour-per-day liberal-media meat-grinder. If you become the GOP nominee, and you become close in the polls, truth won't matter anymore. Anita Hills will start jumping out of every closet. And if you get ahead in the polls, those Anita Hills will become teenagers. You better have Kevlar skin if you expect to survive it.
Nov '10
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
The NYT sound like a fawning younger sister: Big Bro O is so cool and smart and popular! Anyone that says different is a big meany stupidhead!
Jan '11
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
Obama is still personally popular? Who knew?!? I'm so glad we have The New York Times to explain things we might otherwise not have noticed.
Jul '10
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
I doubt he is as personally popular as polling suggests. Lots of people - especially nice older white folks - are reluctant to tell some young, anonymous pollster that they personally dislike the First Black President.
Even Rasmussen's polls routinely show that 18% of Republicans give him their personal approval.
Have you ever met a Republican who says, "Oh, I don't like his policies, but I think he's a nice, well-meaning guy"?
Aug '10
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
If the RCP average shows 49.1% disapproval (45.5% approval) how can his "personal popularity" be a potent force?
Feb '11
Re: Blessed Are the Meek: For They Shall . . . Not Run for President?
Next the Times will run something on a "hubris factor" along the lines of "what kind of ego and self-regard does it take to presume you are qualified to be POTUS?" and thus disqualify another batch of candidates.
Kenneth- if you ever had a chance with the Niners, it would be this year (if there is a this year in the NFL).