Bin Laden Didn't Fear the Arab Spring
The speech that President Obama delivered on the Middle East earlier today got pretty sloppy in its analysis of the region. At the heart of the remarks was a notion that the uprisings throughout North Africa and the Middle East point the way to a heartening, democratic future. If only wishing made it so.
The problem that Obama doesn't yet seem to grasp is that just because there are some would-be democrats leading the opposition to the authoritarian rulers in the region doesn't mean that increased liberalism is inevitable. Revolutions often eat their own. Who comes out on top will likely be more a function of power and organization than of ideological merit. One need look no further than the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt for an example of this trend.
Need further proof? Newly released excerpts of Osama Bin Laden's final videotape reveal that the Al Qaeda leader wasn't the least bit worried about the uprisings. According to a piece in the UK Daily Mail:
In the tape, he said: 'I think that the winds of change will blow over the entire Muslim world, with permission from Allah.
'Let the truth ring out. Remember those that go out with a sword are true believers, those that go fight with their tongue are true believers, and those that fight in their hearts are true believers.'
He claimed 'the sun of the revolution has risen from the Maghreb'. 'The light of the revolution came from Tunisia. It has given the nation tranquility and made the faces of the people happy.'
He continued: 'This wasn't a revolution of starving and pain, but a revolution of giving and peace.'
Calling on followers to act, he added: 'A delay may cause the opportunity to be lost, and carrying it out before the right time will increase the number of casualties.'
The cynics will say that Bin Laden was just desperate to catch up with the Arab street before he got left behind. I doubt that. It's precisely the kind of regimes under threat now -- some of them cooperative with America, all of them insufficiently Islamic by the standards of jihadists -- that Bin Laden wished to see replaced. The radicalization of those countries isn't inevitable. But it's much more likely now than it was before the so-called "Arab Spring."
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Jun '10
Re: Bin Laden Didn't Fear the Arab Spring
In all these uprisings, Bin Laden sees a "strong horse" there, in amongst the crowds, and that strong horse sounds a lot like him. How strong? We'll find out.
Mar '11
Re: Bin Laden Didn't Fear the Arab Spring
I don't know whether this is a completely genuine endorsement of the "Arab Spring," or just a case of a "leader" trying to appear to be out in front of the crowd he just noticed marching on the palace. Even a minimally competent strategist knows to take whatever advantage he can out of unforeseen developments. I don't think Al Qaeda was behind the protests, but most revolutions end up falling prey to whomever is organized and ruthless enough to take over.
Jan '11
Re: Bin Laden Didn't Fear the Arab Spring
Obama does grasp that liberalism there is not inevitable, but he will say whatever makes his administration look great. When Republicans finally regain the White House and the region continues to be a hot bed of unrest, Obama's remarks will be used to create the sense of a downward spiral in the USA's world leadership.
Nov '10
Re: Bin Laden Didn't Fear the Arab Spring
I'm not entirely sure why Bin Laden's endorsement of the uprisings is supposed to be some kind of smoking gun, while Obama's endorsement is obviously gross naivete. The two of them are both equally disconnected, and for all we know they are both doing the same thing, expressing optimism in the face of a chaotic situation.
Percival is entirely right, and we do ourselves no favors by assuming that the protesters are guilty of shariatism until proven innocent.