Biden His Time Until 2016?
Amidst talk that he could receive a one-way ticket to Foggy Bottom (Hillary Clinton coming in to breathe new life into the Democratic ticket), Biden’s speaking openly about a presidential bid in 2016.
There’s one big problem with this – well, at least four problems considering that (a) Biden is a tiresome gaffe-aholic whose ministrations run the gamut from silly to stupid to scary; (b) it’s hard to imagine, four years from now, the public clamoring for a continuum of, or a return to, the Obama Administration; and (c) it would be Biden’s third time around as a presidential candidate – and most winners get, at best, two cracks at the White House before history and new blood shove them aside.
That fourth problem: Biden would be 75 going into January 2016 and that year’s primary season. And the Democratic faithful participating in said primaries? Well, they’re something of political ageists.
Consider the list of Democratic presidential nominees over the past half-century (incumbents not included), and their respective ages at the time they led their party into national battle:
John F. Kennedy 43
Hubert Humphrey 57
George McGovern 49
Jimmy Carter 51
Walter Mondale 56
Michael Dukakis 54
Bill Clinton 45
Al Gore 52
John Kerry 59
Barack Obama 47
The average age of a Democratic nominee: 51. The median age: 52. Three of the four winners: 47 or younger. Obviously, Biden is a generation too late, by any of these measures. In fact, one has to go all the way back to the illustrious Samuel J. Tilden and the election of 1876 (whose outcome, by the way, was fraught with controversy – that century’s Bush v. Gore) to find a Democratic nominee in his 60’s.
For Biden, there’s always the option of switching over to the other side – which, it turns out, is much kinder to its elders (add to this conversation Hillary Clinton, the former “Goldwater Girl” who would be 68 in January 2016).
Again, going back over the past half-century, here are the ages of the GOP standard-bearers (once more, leaving out incumbent presidents). What you’ll notice: whereas the Democratic nominee rarely qualifies for a senior discount, “GOP” could just as well stand for AARP, with an average age of 61:
Richard Nixon 47
Barry Goldwater 55
Richard Nixon 55
Ronald Reagan 69
George H.W. Bush 64
Bob Dole 73
George W. Bush 54
John McCain 72
Biden would sooner leave the Democratic Party than his running mate could kick the teleprompter habit. But the problem is: the Democratic Party likely will leave Biden – regardless of what he might say about his future plans.
The moment the November 2012 elections, one of two outcomes is certain: Barack Obama is out of a job; or he’s a soon-to-be lame-duck second-term president. Either way, it will spark a conversation about the next round of Democratic leaders and who’s waiting in the wings moving to lead the party post-Obama.
Where will such talk take the Democrats? It could lead to a senator or a governor (or even a big-city mayor – Newark’s Cory Booker, who will be all of 43 next summer (the same age as Obama in 2004), is someone to keep an eye on as a rising star).
But, if history is a good indicator, the choice will be a man or a woman with fewer than 50 candles on the birthday cake.
Your thoughts on where the Democratic Party turns after Obama? Doesn't strike me as much of a bench, at the moment.
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: Biden His Time Until 2016?
When Biden's not displaying an empty mind--"that Joe, what a character"--he's displaying a dishonest one. He get's caught being pathetically stupid or grossly dishonest, he lays low for awhile, and then he's back in business...like it never happened. He's been going through that cycle for decades.
1987: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj2ph2LM4N8
Nov '10
Re: Biden His Time Until 2016?
Realistically, the only way Biden has a shot is if he and Obama win next year. And if that happens, I don't think it will matter too much who wins it in 2016.
Jul '10
Re: Biden His Time Until 2016?
Biden 2016! It's a Big Effing Deal!
If only the Dems would nominate this guy... I bet he'd tap Chris Dodd as his running mate: You handle the domestic stuff and I'll take care of the world, Chris.
We could run Joe Scarborough against Joe Biden and win. Those of us living in lib-land really should have bumper stickers ready for 2013 along the lines of Biden/ Levin 2016 like those Kemp/ Dole ones that emerged an hour after Clinton won in 92.
As for the Dems' bench, I think it disappeared with Harold Ford jr.
Aug '10
Re: Biden His Time Until 2016?
Hillary/Booker 2012?
Apr '11
Re: Biden His Time Until 2016?
Andrew Coumo may be formidable. Cory Booker would be an interesting VP choice, and he seems to be a respectable guy. Both would add substance to the Democratic party. Of course, waaay back I remember thinking Obama would restore substance and civility to the Dems.
A Christie /Rubio v Coumo/Booker race in 2016 could actually be a civll and substantive campaign.
Jun '10
Re: Biden His Time Until 2016?
I'll be president before Biden.
The Dems really have major bench strength problems. There are a few young senators from 2008 debacle (Begich from Alaska; Merkley from Oregon), but has anyone ever heard of them since?
House: Van Hollen (maybe); Wasserman-Schultz (please, Lord, let her be the VP nominee) and . . . .
At this point, only Hillary or Cuomo can help.
Edited on Oct 24, 2011 at 11:44am