Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
From the opening paragraph of this morning's edition of Ben's daily news digest, The Transom (required reading if you're not already a subscriber):
If you’re a social conservative whose primary issue is abortion and you see a guy like Rick Santorum rising, why would you ever leave him once you’ve decided “consarnit, I’m going with a guy who fights on my issue”? If you’re a libertarian who’s already decided to ignore Ron Paul’s newsletters, why would you leave him? And if you’re a conservative who’s made your peace with Mitt Romney, there’s no reason to leave him (indeed, few have left or been added to that list since 2008 it seems).
That, folks, is the story. There's still plenty of fight left in this campaign; but it's not amongst the biggest vote-getters thus far. If you really want to know where this thing is going, watch the candidates who look only a primary or two away from leaving the race. In a field this diffuse, where their votes go -- and when -- may be the key to determining who becomes our eventual nominee.
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Jun '10
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
I think the Not Romneys have finally figured out that they have to run against Romney too. It's not enough to be at the top of the Not Romney heap. I think it's already Romney's to lose.
Mar '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Oh dear, I am half-way through the 100th podcast, where Rob is predicting an Obama victory and there is overwhelming apathy for Mr Romney.
Mr Santorum is this really weird social conservative and, err, who is this mystery candidate only a primary or two from leaving the race?
Oh, my plane awaits.
Mar '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
If you and Ben are right, here, Troy, I think in NH we've begun to see some of the messaging going forward that might raise those candidates who are on the margins (and if you watch the last two debates, they quite literally have their podiums on the furthest edges of the stage) to frontrunner status (that is, if anything will. This presumes you and Ben are right in this)
Perry's message in NH the last couple days: I am the an actual Tea Party candidate--I really am an outsider, and my record shows that I'm willing to cut government and grow the private sector. Whatever you don't like about my record, doesn't it pale in comparison to everyone else in the field?
Huntsman's message in NH the last couple days: Americans have lost faith in their governing and economic institutions, because those institutions have betrayed their trust and co-opted one another.
We'll see tomorrow how far those themes have resonated with NH voters, and we'll see shortly in SC how they are resonating elsewhere.
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Well put. It's the desperation to distinguish themselves from Romney that disturbs me. Newt was doing fine until he unnecessarily went after the courts. Perry has to say he's going back into Iraq?
Mar '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
" And if you’re a conservative who’s made your peace with Mitt Romney,"
I think you're getting this wrong. The first two examples were of politicians committed to ideas, politicians with a devoted following of one size or another. Romney, however, has no signature belief (except that screwing the people of Massachusetts over with a health mandate was a great idea!). Romney is... once again, let me quote Lileks here... a technocrat to his empty core. Romney believes in gaining power, and that's about the extent of it. Santorum will never surrender on abortion. Paul will never surrender on foreign policy. Romney is negotiable on pretty much everything. See his change on abortion (twice!).
I find that very few conservatives like Romney, and fewer still have "made their peace with him". Most will simply sigh and and settle for him. Just like John McCain. Results will be similar, as well.
Jun '10
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Douglas:
[...]
I find that very few conservatives like Romney, and fewer still have "made their peace with him". Most will simply sigh and and settle for him. Just like John McCain. Results will be similar, as well. · Jan 9 at 10:14am
The difference between Romney and McCain is that Romney has a plan, and knows how to execute a plan. That's a BIG difference.
Mar '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
etoiledunord
Douglas:
[...]
I find that very few conservatives like Romney, and fewer still have "made their peace with him". Most will simply sigh and and settle for him. Just like John McCain. Results will be similar, as well. · Jan 9 at 10:14am
The difference between Romney and McCain is that Romney has a plan, and knows how to execute a plan. That's a BIG difference. · Jan 9 at 10:18am
If the voters don't like him, that plan is meaningless.
Jun '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Also, McCain barely fought back vs. Obama. Whereas, Romney is much more willing to play the hardball required.
May '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
I think the most important point is that we all through our collective weight toward whoever ends up being nominated, regardless of who that is. My guy may not get nominated, but I'll tell you what - if I had a list of every single republican nominee still in the running, and added Obama to that list, Obama would still be dead last. The worst thing we can do is hold a grudge after our guy doesn't get the nomination. Maybe that's Claire's "house divided" point. We should fight over it right up until one person gets nominated, and then forget everything bad we ever said about him and try to win an election.
Aug '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Evidence? I would like some.
Mar '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
etoiledunord
The difference between Romney and McCain is that Romney has a plan, and knows how to execute a plan. That's a BIG difference. · Jan 9 at 10:18am
You mean the 59 point silliness? I like the Ace of Spades summation.
Jan '12
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
I think it is premature to believe that a few candidates are one or two primaries from leaving the race. What I like about the situation now -- even if my candidate is not on the upper rung -- is that they are beginning to actually vet each other. Republicans call this vetting "attacks". Come on. Politics is a contact sport and winning is essential. Especially Romney -- the Republican Establishment and media chosen one -- must be vetted with the same ferocity that the Dems will or he does not stand a chance. If the nominee is going to be Romney (or whoever else), we need to see him stand tall, defend himself, America, the free market, limited government, and opportunty for all rather than class warfare.
Yes, McCain turned out to be the greatest wimp the GOP ever nominated. Did his "prisoner of war" mentality take over?
Jun '10
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
iWc
etoiledunord
The difference between Romney and McCain is that Romney has a plan, and knows how to execute a plan. That's a BIG difference. · Jan 9 at 10:18am
You mean the 59 point silliness? I like the Ace of Spades summation. · Jan 9 at 11:03am
Sometimes it's not the product. It's how you sell the product. That's especially true in presidential politics, as was demonstrated in 2008. What was Obama's product? Transformation? Obviously, voters don't study the details too much. The only product the Republican nominee may need in 2012 is reverse-transformation. The details are less important.
Jun '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
@Drew, you've caught me w/ sloppy thinking. I cut the weasel words "appears to be" based on Romney's ability and willingness to attack more vigorously to date. I expect him to continue to do so vs. Obama and should have clarified that, as Arlen Specter would say, it's not proven.
DrewInWisconsin
Evidence? I would like some. · Jan 9 at 10:45am
Aug '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Frico-Gee, I just don't get the sense that Romney has the ability to play hardball. So far he's been quite unable to contend with even the softballs thrown at him (vis-a-vis the Bret Baier interview, which revealed him to be thin-skinned and brittle).
Aug '10
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Newt may disagree with you.
Jul '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
He strikes me as a guy that was never punched in the nose, got teed off and hit back hard until that person was dead sure there would be hell to pay if he touched him again. He strikes me as someone who wants to be liked more than a fighter.
The last person anyone would want to hit in the GOP field is Rick Perry. He'll come at you like a spider monkey.
Jun '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
I've become convinced that Romney can play hardball, but unconvinced he can play it well. Mitt deftly induced Newt to self-immolate while keeping his hands clean. The "other" Chicago Boys will be a bit tougher to rough up in November.
You're right, the Baier interview was an unforced error, but "unable to contend with even the softballs" is harsh. IMO, Romney's missteps stand out because he's been pretty darned consistent. Also, he's the only one who has been front-and-center the entire campaign and debate cycle. Everyone else has either had long stretches in the background or wilted once the spotlight hit.
Frozen Chosen
Newt may disagree with you. · Jan 9 at 1:40pm
Apr '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
iWc
etoiledunord
The difference between Romney and McCain is that Romney has a plan, and knows how to execute a plan.
You mean the 59 point silliness? I like the Ace of Spades summation. ·
I think that it makes sense only if you don't read the plan. Ace claims is that you can only really get 4 big things done, although each gets broken down a little, and he doesn't include repealing Obamacare (making it a list of 5). That's more or less Romney's promise, too, of which the jobs document deals mostly with the first two big ones: Repeal Obamacare & much of the Bush/ Obama regulations (in particular, the Global Warming and financial stuff from both), Cut discretionary spending (attacking the spending itself, and unions that promote future spending), reform entitlements, reorganize a bunch of government agencies, and increase defense spending.
You'll note that Perry promises roughly the same thing; more focus on energy (Mitt would basically stop obstructing development and deregulate, but nothing difficult) and constitutional and tax reform (again, relatively minor for Mitt). Ace pretends Perry is simpler than he is; other than defense, Perry calls for more change than Mitt.
Jun '11
Re: Ben Domenech Hits the Nail on the Head
Absolutely right, Mitt no street fighter. Wouldn't call him wimpy or lacking physical courage...I'm not sure I could do two years of mission work.
Perry strikes me as frat boy tough. Note that Mitt was the one with the dominant body language and gestures vs. Perry. Put his hands right on him.
DocJay He strikes me as a guy that was never punched in the nose, got teed off and hit back hard until that person was dead sure there would be hell to pay if he touched him again. He strikes me as someone who wants to be liked more than a fighter.
The last person anyone would want to hit in the GOP field is Rick Perry. He'll come at you like a spider monkey. · Jan 9 at 2:05pm