Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
There's a certain amount of head-scratching going on among poll watchers as they wonder why, as much as his numbers have fallen off, the President's personal approval is still much higher than approval of his policies and initiatives. I've had conversations with three well-known pollsters in the past few months, and they claim the answer involves race. Now that some pundits (Frank Rich among them) have equated any anti-Obama positions with racism, white voters are particularly careful about their responses to poll questions.
The pollsters keep trying to refine their questions to avoid this phenomenon, but they're not sure they've succeeded. The bottom line is these three people who make their living asking questions of potential voters think the news is actually worse for the Democrats than the numbers would suggest.
We'll know soon whether they're right, but I find it interesting that they're questioning their own results.
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Re: Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
An addendum to the above for Rob Long: since you don't read the Times, I should point out that Frank Rich (former theater critic and play killer) writes opinion pieces for them.
Jun '10
Re: Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
What a delicious irony. The left inflicts on us political correctness so we can't speak the truth. Now that the populace has been successfully indoctrinated, political correctness prevents the hired guns who gather the data from getting the truth. Nice.
Re: Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
Since I only have one friend who's a pollster, Pat, you've got me outnumbered. But my pollster friend adds a factor to the one your own pollster friends mentioned: that it's getting harder and harder to get people to remain on the line--most polling still takes place by telephone--long enough to answer pollsters' questions. My friend can't demonstrate this statistically, but he feels certain that the people who hang up on pollsters skew heavily conservative. The less you like Obama, in other words, the less likely you are to have the patience to listen to a pollster asking you about it.
(You might suppose that people who refuse to answer questions about Obama are simply following their mothers' advice to be polite: "If you can't say something nice about someone, dear, then don't say anything at all." You might suppose that--until you heard the kinds of comments they make just before slamming down the receiver.)
May '10
Re: Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
Besides the polling biases, which I think are real, what we're also witnessing is the endurance of a brand. Barack Obama the brand was skillfully managed such that the 2008 election itself was a signal triumph of style over substance. The idea of Obama will likely matter more than the reality of Obama until either of the following occurs :
And even if his supporters are forced by the above to reassess their views, the demonstrative nature of their support -- from bumper stickers to exultations -- will tend to make their disillusions sotto voce.
Re: Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
Frank Rich? The theater guy?! Go on with you! Next you'll be telling me that Maureen Dowd is writing Op-Eds!
But to be serious, for a brief moment: Pat I think you're onto something. I think -- despite what the Left wants us to believe, which is that every American harbors a dark, racist soul -- most Americans wanted Obama to succeed. Heck, most Americans voted for the man. They wanted him to rock the presidency, as the kids say. They wanted him -- and still want him, I think -- to be on the ten dollar bill. The promise of a smart, African American centrist, an inspiring speaker and practical leader, is just too attractive to let go. So, yes, it is sort of racial. I think the difference between the right track/wrong track numbers and Obama's personal approval rating reflects the desire, in many voters, to have an African American president they really like. And they're unwilling to give up that desire just because the actual, living, breathing guy is such a disappointing failure.
May '10
Re: Believe the Polls? Even Some Pollsters Don't
If asked if I personally like the guy, I could answer honestly, yes. It's not just a fear of being painted racist. He reminds me of many people I already know and like to talk with at dinner parties and our kids' soccer games. I don't have to agree with his politics or think he should be in a position of high responsibility to think he's basically a decent guy. Pelosi, on the other hand, I can't stand on any level. Should mention that I'm culturally very blue-state, so I feel a much closer kinship with Obama than with people like Bush or Palin, who would doubtless make much better drinking buddies.