Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
When I suggested here about a week ago that, with races tightening up here and there, Republicans and Tea Partiers might be suffering from overconfidence, no less a figure than Ricochet's own Pat Sajak remonstrated with me, telling me to "buck up." Today I thought I'd beat Pat to the punch. With just three weeks and two days remaining before the election, the news everywhere--except, that is, for California and New York, which Paul Rahe has by now trained me to leave to one side--is almost ridiculously good.
A Sunday roundup:
Item: The headline on RealClearPolitics's homepage: "Senate: No Toss Ups." If the election were held today, RealClearPolitics's polls indicate, Republicans would gain nine seats, dividing the Senate 50-50. (Since Vice President Biden would cast tie votes, the Senate would remain in the control of the Democrats, but only just.)
Note that RealClearPolitics gives the Senate races in California, Washington, and Connecticut to the Democrats. [I originally included West Virginia in that list. Kenneth corrected me. See the comments.] Me? I'm figuring there's still a pretty good chance the GOP will pick up at least one of those, winning the Senate outright.
Update as of 12.15PM Pacific: Some new polls must have come in, because RealClearPolitics has pulled the map I wrote about above, replacing it, alas, with a map showing the Democrats with 50 Senate seats and the GOP with just 46. On the other hand, they've moved both the Washington and California races from the Democratic to the "toss-up" column. And--more good news--I'm hearing from political insider-y friends here in the Golden State that Carly is beginning to show movement.
Item: Isaac Wood, who analyzes House races for Sabato's "Crystal Ball" and whose work often appears on Rasmussen reports:
"Democrats now hold 28 seats we already have leaning towards the Republicans, and they are playing defense in another 22 districts they currently hold which we list as “Toss-Ups.” For their part, Republicans hold just two seats currently rated “Leans Democratic” plus two additional “Toss-Up” seats. All together, we consider 95 Democratic-held districts to be competitive at this juncture, while only 17 Republican seats are in play."
Item: For the Cook Political Report, House editor David Wasserman:
"We currently rate 74 Democratic incumbents as vulnerable, including 28 in the Lean Democratic column, 34 in the Toss Up column, and 12 in the Lean Republican column. Just four Republican incumbents are in real jeopardy."
Item: From the front page of the online version of the grey lady herself, the New York Times. (Yes, I know: Paul Rahe and Aaron Miller keep telling me to quit bothering with the Times. But headlines like this--well, let's just say there are moments that make it all worthwhile.)
"Number of Competitive House Races Doubles: Around 87 House races can be seen as competitive this year, around twice as high as in recent years."
You can't see this, Pat, but I'm grinning from ear to ear. Honest.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Actually, Peter, I believe RCP has West Virginia as a GOP pick-up.
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Thanks, Kenneth. I misread the dang map. Will make the correction instanter.
Btw, did you see my note to you on the "Snapshot of a Tough Neighborhood" thread?
May '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Not to count chickens before they hatch or sow discord before there's a fight, but it's time for quiet discussions among the Republican caucus. All indications point to a Speaker Boehner. That's not my ideal but I can live with it. In the Senate, I guess Mitch McConnell is looking for his dance card. Meh.
That's all fine and dandy for Messrs. Boehner and McConnell, so long as they realize one thing: They are not the reasons Republicans are up. Boehner would owe his speakership to Father Time plus the considerable talent and good graces of new leaders like Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy. Jim DeMint's recruits are driving the Senate wins. Haley Barbour and the RGA are spiking turnout with compelling gubernatorial candidates. Sarah Palin (whatever you think of her) has been an overwhelming net plus this election cycle. Above all, the Tea Party citizen movement is pulling the cart and these folks have no intention of letting anyone (Republican or Democrat) take them for a ride again.
Boehner and McConnell may get to hold the big wooden gavels. But they better not think that privileges them to call the tune.
Edited on Oct 10, 2010 at 12:25pmJul '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Matthew Gilley:
Boehner and McConnell may get to hold the big wooden gavels. But they better not think that privileges them to call the tune. · Oct 10 at 12:24pm
Edited on Oct 10 at 12:25 pm
Matthew: At the SF Rico Soiree, I was lacerating Boehner and McConnell; Peter Robinson countered that they deserved credit, beginning with the Obama stimulus package, for keeping their caucases almost 100% in line as the "Party of No".
They heard us.
Now the question is whether they heard a message and responded with political pragmatism or whether they got religion.
May '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Matthew: At the SF Rico Soiree, I was lacerating Boehner and McConnell; Peter Robinson countered that they deserved credit, beginning with the Obama stimulus package, for keeping their caucases almost 100% in line as the "Party of No".
They heard us.
Now the question is whether they heard a message and responded with political pragmatism or whether they got religion. · Oct 10 at 12:32pm
Pragmatism. McConnell and Boehner aren't stupid, and they got the message loud and clear. Boehner's recent slipup on taxes concerns me; sure, he backtracked in a hurry, but that showed me we haven't reset his compass. We'll have to keep speaking loud enough to continue being heard.
This story only strengthens my conviction we need to have one of these soirees in deep red country (Atlanta?). Just put it somewhere so we won't have to huddle around like a bunch of refugees. Kenneth, you surveyed the crowd in SF - do you think they could handle a good ol' down-home backyard low country boil with plenty of the South's finest Palmetto Ale, RJ Rockers Patriot Pale Ale and Sweetwater 420 on ice?
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Be careful here, Matthew. If you start tangling with Kenneth, I'll warn you right now, you'll find that he's smart, that he's funny (which is sort of a smarts multiplier), and that he'll never let you forget it. Also that you can start out on the same side, as you seem to be right now, but that Kenneth will lob a little grenade or two at you even so.
For what it's worth, my position on Boehner and McConnell: Boehner strikes me as smart and tough enough to keep the GOP functioning effectively in the House, McConnell as one of the shrewdest and most ruthless parliamentarians the Senate has ever seen. (And that's a good thing. I've had a couple of encounters with McConnell. The guy is just muy, muy intelligente.) And? And that they're both utterly unappealing as public faces for the GOP. McConnell, I think, knows that, and will content himself with ruling the realm he so loves, the Senate. Boehner? Not sure. We'll see whether he has the smarts to put Cantor and Ryan forward while remaining at one or two removes from the press himself.
Edited on Oct 10, 2010 at 12:56pmJul '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Matthew Gilley
Kenneth, you surveyed the crowd in SF - do you think they could handle a good ol' down-home backyard low country boil with plenty of the South's finest Palmetto Ale, RJ Rockers Patriot Pale Ale and Sweetwater 420 on ice? · Oct 10 at 12:43pm
Oh, they're much, much better than that. They're the kind who will nurse one cocktail for 4 hours while you descend into a drunken stupor, then pick your pocket and drive off with your girlfriend.
Peter may look like a mild gentleman, but he's a steppin' razor.
May '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
@ Peter: I certainly hope I can draw Kenneth out for some repartee. There's nothing quite so satisfying here at Ricochet as watching how mischievously accurate he is when he lobs his grenades. I'm a management side labor and employment lawyer, and was not surprised to see he's worked in HR before. The genesis of that quick wit is no longer a mystery.
I think you are dead on about McConnell. And if Boehner sees his job as keeping the trains running on time, things could work out very well.
@ Kenneth: Did they at least leave you with cab fare home?
Jul '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Matthew Gilley:
@ Kenneth: Did they at least leave you with cab fare home? · Oct 10 at 1:01pm
I abstained. I'm obnoxious enough without alcohol.
May '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Kenneth
Matthew Gilley:
@ Kenneth: Did they at least leave you with cab fare home? · Oct 10 at 1:01pm
I abstained. I'm obnoxious enough without alcohol. · Oct 10 at 1:05pm
Then you'll have to join us down here. We are nothing if not hospitable to our guests in the South. Sure, we'll get you drunk and nab your wallet, but we'll always leave your lady friend to drive you home.
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
I have been busy grading freshman papers and reading a manuscript for Cambridge University Press -- so I have not had the time to weigh in much. I am still of the view that we will gain 70-100 seats in the House and that we will win the Senate. I was very glad to read what Peter Robinson had to say about Carly Fiorina. Not even I would be willing to predict her victory, but it would be a joyous occasion!
I do think that Dino Rossi will win in Washington. Alas, however, whether Mark Kirk wins in Illinois may depend upon the graveyard vote. What I think most important, however, is that our candidates are making the proper argument -- against high taxes, against Obamacare, and for limited government. What this means is that -- when things really collapse in Illinois, New York, and California (the weightiest of the really blue states) -- we will be poised to seize the opportunity. What the rest of the country sees they will see soon enough. Bankruptcy concentrates the mind wonderfully.
May '10
Re: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
I would like to survey folks in other parts of the country. My home television market is the Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, NC market, so I see campaigns ads from both sides of the border (plus the market includes slivers of extreme northeast Georgia). I have yet to see a Democrat candidate include his or her party identification in an ad. Is that happening elsewhere?
Edited on Oct 10, 2010 at 1:34pmRe: Beating Pat Sajak to the Punch
Peter Robinson:
You can't see this, Pat, but I'm grinning from ear to ear. Honest.
No, but I can visualize it. Looks good, Peter.