Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
After interviewing Haley Barbour for Uncommon Knowledge last Friday, I joined him for 90 minutes of freewheeling conversation with a few Hoover fellows, including former Secretary of State George Shultz. (Mr. Shultz is also a former Secretary of the Treasury, a former Secretary of Labor, and a former Director of the Office of Management and the Budget. If anyone else has ever occupied four Cabinet positions, I’m unaware of him.) Gov. Barbour laid out his expectations for November—in brief, Republicans will win, big—then allowed that his chief worry now concerns the two-and-three-quarters months between election day this November and the day in January when the new members of Congress will take their oaths of office.
“The Democrats’ll call a special session,” Gov. Barbour said—I’m quoting him from memory. “And they’re going to pass their whole doggoned wish list, including card check, and send the legislation down to the White House. The President’ll be standing by with the cap already off his signature pen.”
For Democrats in Congress, everyone agreed, there would be little to lose. The leadership—Nancy Pelosi and Henry Waxman, to name two—represent safe seats. Their constituents will re-elect them in 2012 no matter how thoroughly they undermine the Republic in the meantime. Others—perhaps, with any luck, Harry Reid—will already have lost their seats. Voting for the rest of the liberal agenda will enable to them to feel righteous and defiant while costing them nothing. But for the President? What sense could it possibly make for Barack Obama to sign a raft of liberal legislation, several of us asked, when he’ll be facing re-election in two years?
“Mr. Obama,” Gov. Barbour replied, “is a true believer.”
Shelby Steele concurred. (Dr. Steele has been engaged in a close study of Barack Obama ever since he began research for his 2008 book about Obama, A Bound Man.) “Barack has said he wants to be transformational. My sense is that he’d rather sign liberal bills into law than serve a second term.”
I spent the weekend having a lot of trouble getting used to that thought. Then today, nosing around on the Internet, I found this. Jeepers. For the last six months, Rob has been trying to tell us that Hillary Clinton will resign as Secretary of State to challenge Obama for the 2012 Democratic nomination, and for the last six months I’ve been telling Rob that he’s crazy. Maybe we’re both wrong. Maybe Obama will give Hillary the nomination.
Barack Obama, a one-term president—by his own choice?
What think?
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May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
"They're going to pass their whole doggone wish list...and send it down to the White House," says Gov. Barbour. Easier said than done. It would require not just Obama being a "true believer" but every single Senate Dem, many of whom are up for re-election in two short years (plus a bit of GOP cooperation). Very unlikely. Hopefully the true believers will go ahead and try: They'll fail and hurt their party in the process.
As for Obama's "intending" to be a one-termer, it's a classic example of the "sour grapes" fable: That which one is unable to attain due to his own deficiencies becomes that which he "never really wanted all along." Funny, that.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
How do the smart folks at Hoover expect legislation to get through the Senate? Do they have so little faith in the ladies from Maine holding the line?
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
What I should have said, Scott and Trace, is that Gov. Barbour's worried that the Dems are going to try to pull this off. He listed several Democrats in the Senate who would be hesitant to go along with the scheme for just the reason you name--that, whatever Barack Obama might have in mind for his own future, the Mary Landrieus and Ben Nelsons of this world would very much like to get re-elected.
Thanks for spotting that.
Edited on Aug 24, 2010 at 10:21amMay '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
"...It is true that a house divided against itself by the spirit of faction, of party, of region, of religion, of race, is a house that cannot stand.
There is division in the American house now. There is divisiveness among us all tonight...So, I would ask all Americans, whatever their personal interests or concern, to guard against divisiveness and all its ugly consequences.
Believing this as I do, I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year.
Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.
But let men everywhere know, however, that a strong, a confident, and a vigilant America stands ready tonight to seek an honorable peace--and stands ready tonight to defend an honored cause--whatever the price, whatever the burden, whatever the sacrifice that duty may require."
For those too young to remember, that's Lyndon Johnson calling out across the years.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
It's wrong to equate not prioritizing re-election with not wanting re-election.
Obama will seek re-election if he has half a chance. He simply won't, or doesn't think he has to, deny his radical goals.
Aug '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
Whew ! You win the scariest movie of the year award right now.
Wes Craven weeps,with the country.
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
EJHill: "...It is true that a house divided against itself by the spirit of faction, of party, of region, of religion, of race, is a house that cannot stand.
There is division in the American house now. There is divisiveness among us all tonight...So, I would ask all Americans, whatever their personal interests or concern, to guard against divisiveness and all its ugly consequences.
Believing this as I do, I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year.
Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.
But let men everywhere know, however, that a strong, a confident, and a vigilant America stands ready tonight to seek an honorable peace--and stands ready tonight to defend an honored cause--whatever the price, whatever the burden, whatever the sacrifice that duty may require."
[...] that's Lyndon Johnson calling out across the years.
Shudder. LBJ's four-year plunge reminds us that the fate of a presidency can never really be separated from the fate of the country.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
I'd love to get Shelby Steele's thoughts on Obama 18 months in, particularly as it pertains to his "bargainer vs challenger" way of looking at things. Has Obama retained his bargainer status? Or has he--at least through his proxies (e.g., Holder)--become a challenger? If so, does this switch in some measure account for his plunge in popularity? The feel in these parts is that the bargain pretty quickly became a bait-and-switch.
Jul '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
It's interesting to muse about whether Obama really wants a second term or not, but I don't think he is such a unique specimen to eschew the fame, celebrity and power of the Oval Office because he's too much of an unpopular nerd for his own liking.
Rather, I'm more concerned with what will happen after the election, when the Republicans do take the House and perhaps the Senate. Is it really possible for Obama's ratings to continue to fall as they have for another 28 months? The White House and its political advisors must already be gearing up for that eventuality and ready to strike back by playing underdog for a year before starting the Obama 2012 campaign. And how can we discount the media, who will bend even further backwards than they did in 2008 to prop up Obama, this time having the advantage of blaming anything bad that happens on a Republican House rather than the Democratic White House?
As far as I can see, winning the House and maybe Senate will be great, but will lead us to dangerous territory that might keep Obama in office till 2016.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
Jeepers is right. And so is the Guv. You've discussed this on the podcasts. He will not be turned from his course. He is not Clinton (PBUH). I don't know how this works out once Congress is lost, but it'll be a bumpy ride.
And ignoring Pelosi's seat, will she exit the House? After all, Hoyer's not giving up the leader's spot, because people will be reluctant to replace a reasonably personable guy with some who lost them control. And would she be content to be a backbencher? She is, like, seventy.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
And if she does manage to hang on, she'll be in a worse position than Boehner is now. Trying to make media splashes that people haven't bought before.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
And Kennedy, that Pelosi-passing-the-gavel ceremony has such potential for fun, fodder for SNL if there ever was.
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
We're now working to line Shelby up for a podcast. Thanks for the suggestion.
May '10
Re: Barack Obama: Only 28 Months to Go?
Agreed, Humza. I have no idea what Obama will do in the next two years, but a Republican-controlled House will afford him a lot of excuses with the media. And who knows what event might transform American politics yet again? It's always wrong to assume more of the same.