Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Diane Ellis, Ed. ·
Feb 14 at 4:51pm
A new New York Times/CBS News poll indicates trouble ahead for whomever Republicans ultimately choose to be their standard bearer.
Among registered voters, President Obama now leads Mitt Romney 48% to 42%, which CBS claims is attributable to the shift among independents who are cooling toward the idea of replacing Obama with a Republican. The matchup between Obama and Santorum is even worse at 49% to 41%.
Image: CBS News (click to enlarge)
So what's the story here? What's scaring the independents away from the Republicans and/or making Obama all of a sudden a whole lot more palatable to these voters?
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Comments :
Feb '12
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Why? 1) Somewhat improving economy and stock market; 2) Republican in-fighting; but 3) It's Early - let not your heart be troubled!
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Also, can you trust these guys? How many Republicans were polled? Democrats? Independents? Not that Pravda-on-the-Hudson or CBS would engage in any dirty tricks! That would be unthinkable.
Jun '10
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Didn't you hear? On January 21, 2013, the new Republican President (whichever one that is) wants to outlaw contraceptives in the morning and nuke Tehran in the afternoon. It'll be an exceptionally full day. I read it on a blog somewhere.
Apr '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Other polls are just as depressing, so it isn't just that one. There is an interesting article from National Journal that describes how Obama's coalition from 2008 has been reconstituted (and he now wins 52% of white women) :
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/obamas-coalition.php
Edited on Feb 14 at 5:05pmNov '10
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
The story is the ineffectiveness of the Republican public in shutting down the thugs. The disgraceful behavior of OWS at the Santorum speeches over the last couple of days, for example. This is the equivalent of defacing lawn signs during a campaign etc. I'm certain it is clearly illegal. But does the GOP have the will to bring legal force against these groups? Conservatives are just so populated with people who expect civil discourse and don't know how to respond to pure thuggery. And I admit this is a serious problem -- how does one deal with bullies, without becoming one yourself? This, of course, is what they are counting on.
But we've had many months and even years to see this coming. Why is there no clear procedure and structure in place to deal with this kind of misbehavior. The MSM and OWS groups are so far over the line in trying to shut down open public discourse, surely it should be easy enough to discredit them publicly. Why is the message not getting out -- and why does the majority of the conservative community sit and act like spectators?
Jul '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
This election is very simple to me. We lose unless Obama is 100% exposed. Never ending videos, TV and radio ads, viral internet news will all be needed. Make him own his poor decisions and his scandals. Maybe we have a chance then but still not a good one.
Oct '10
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
I want to see what the polling looks like after Obama submitted his ridiculous budget.
Oct '10
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
I still think this is going to be a close race. the debates will matter, with the last one being decisive.
Feb '12
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
An unscientific poll of my female friends and acquaintances reflects those poll numbers. I believe the primary process is working properly.
Feb '12
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Love me or leave me but don't leave me be lonely you have the power to vote for your looney.. Oh it's a long, long while from now till November.. got a whole summer to go yet and it's gonna get Hot! Hot! I tell ya.. Poll on.. roll on election time.
Apr '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Gasoline is predicted to reach $5.00+/gal. this summer. Let's see what the CBS/NYT polls say then.
Oct '10
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
The only thing I find interesting about the poll is that it was conducted on my birthday (middle column). I'm with Prof Rahe because I see CBS and NYT and I get suspicious. Also, how has the fighting during the last month affected voters perceptions of the candidates?
Mar '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
They give their margin of error as 3%. Their weighted respondent percentages are Republicans 30%, Democrats 34%, and Independents 36%. Those are the registered voters in the sample, they got 88% registered voters from their total sample size, which sounds suspiciously high, but I'm no pollster.
A 1% difference between Romney and Santorum is little more than statistical noise.
In addition, Obama hasn't been on TV much lately. It has seemed in the past that the more coverage he gets, the lower his numbers go.
Jan '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Things change. At one point, it looked like Herman Cain would win the Republican nomination - hard to even remember that! That being said, the R nominees have been overexposed - even I'm tired of the endless debates.
When Romney wins the nomination, will he be tried by fire or appear effete? Obama's team has been watching carefully, and have probably already assembled the damaging quotes for the relevant commercials - "I don't care about the very poor".
By continuing Bush foreign policies, Obama has been relatively successful. Economically, his policies are likely ruinous, but that's what most of the people want, after all . . . . .
Aug '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Percival:
In addition, Obama hasn't been on TV much lately. It has seemed in the past that the more coverage he gets, the lower his numbers go.
Indeed! I had forgotten this interesting statistic. Once the campaign gets into full swing, we're going to see His Smugness everywhere, and people will remember why they dislike him. (Because he cannot hide the fact that he dislikes them.)
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
I’ll take “Lousy GOP candidates” for $400, Diane.
May '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
I see it as the infighting combined with the fact that most major media are in the can for Obama. An example of this is the ridiculous narrative on the contraceptive mandate that Republicans are trying to restrict, limit, or take away birth control. Obviously opposing a decree by the administration and its political appointees is nothing of the sort, but it is out there and for that squishy center/swing voter who isn't "in to politics" it only takes a little of that nonsense unanswered to sway them. Instead of just bashing each other and trying to score the coup de grace in the state to state races our potential nominees also need to start talking now about why Obama can't be allowed a second term. We on the right are mostly in agreement on this point (see the last center of gravity poll here on Ricochet for proof), but the rest of America is not. So when our candidates are portrayed as the guy who says "bad stuff about gays" and "lost reelection" (Santorum), the "neo-isolationist" (Paul) the "guy who cheats on his wives" (Gingrich) and the "Rich Guy" (Romney), Obama starts to look viable.
Dec '10
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
Diane,
2nd or more like a 3rd. NYTimes and CBS always round up the usual suspects. To say you can't trust them is the understatement of the millenium.
I say we stay on course and let Gd sort out the general. It's Romney that is most vulnerable in the general. That's why NYTimes and CBS are trying to make everything else look dangerous. It is dangerous, for them!
Regards,
Jim
Edited on Feb 14 at 5:25pmJul '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
While Prof. Rahe is right that these polls have at times had biased internals, wmartin is correct that this one isn't inconsistent with others. I think Robert Silvernail diagnoses the causes of our recent decline correctly.
I find myself very downhearted about this of late. I am trying to have hope, but at this point I'm expecting the worst so as to minimize my disappointment. I used to think my Democratic friends were cocky to predict Obama's reelection with such confidence, but now I see their point.
Look how bad things are. We have a president who it is extraordinarily difficult to say deserves reelection. Did anyone see his budget? The putative $4 trillion in deficit reduction is going to be reduced by (1) the false $850 billion saved by the war drawdown, (2) a baseline that assumes that Congress won't enact "doc fixes" for Medicare, and possibly (3) the administration's both assuming savings from the sequester and simultaneously undoing it, in what is nothing other than a logical contradiction. Wait until we see a full analysis of this from CBO. It won't be pretty. I could continue on other topics - Obamacare's unpopularity
Edited on Feb 14 at 7:08pmJul '11
Re: Bad News for the Republican Standard Bearer
(continued) the continuing weakness of the economy, the offensive health care contraception mandate, the failure of the Russian "reset," Iran, etc.
And yet look at where we are. We - conservatives, Republicans - are in agreement on most policy matters. Even the social conservatives among us are mostly federalists, and hence roughly libertarian on a federal level. We're all down with the Ryan budget. But we are bitterly and seemingly unendingly divided about who our best candidate is. Even the alleged "all stars" some of us still pine for do not seem "all stars" to all of us (I can see Limbaugh resisting Christie or Jeb fiercely). And this division is making us look bad to everyone else, apparently. We have a remarkably energetic House that has passed some terrific bills. Despite that (though not without some hubris on the House's part; see the rejection of the Boehner plan last summer), it's been unjustifiably but successfully portrayed by the Democrats and the media as obstructionist. All this while the Senate does nothing, failing to propose, much less pass, a budget in over 1000 days. And we are losing this? What a scandal. Hard to stomach.