Bachmann, Schmachmann!
First, Happy 4th to my friend Peter who I greatly respect. But on this, we disagree. Come to think of it, happy 4th to everyone.
Second, a plug for my new "Murphy's Law" column in TIME. Topic is Michele Bachmann's impact n the GOP Race. Please don't send me any angry letters or cardboard Uncle Sam hats. Send them to Rob Long.
My view is this: I think she will have an impact on the race, but I think her odds are being nominated are ziltch, as I told Matt a few months ago. I think her support will crumble with time in the spotlight, and deservedly so. I think her appeal is limited to one part of the primary; real estate Rick Perry may well challenge her for. Finally, I think she would lose a general election in a landslide. Conservatives need to remember that until the country changes what it thinks, nominating a candidate that pleases only conservatives (and only one part of the conservative electorate at that; remember her insane Kucinich vote on Libya?) is always going to be a losing plan. Why ape the Democrats circa 1972 and find a George McGovern?
Finally, if Rush - to his credit a Ricochet reader - wants to tee off again, I want the record to state that I don't live in DC and care less about cocktail parties there. In fact, the last time I had dinner in a four-star restaurant in Georgetown, it was with Rush Limbaugh! (Some years ago; it was a fun dinner.)
- Comment (155)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (4)
Comments:
Sep '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
And I'm looking forward to seeing the correction in next weeks TIME magazine.
But Murphy's sentence here does fall apart a bit doesn't it?
"Sentence should be confused hometown of beloved American Icon John Wayne with actual Waterloo resident, serial killer John Wayne Gacy. etc."
But it still isn't accurate because of the word "confused"
How is she "confused" between the two, because you say so?
Here is how the correction should read:
In an article about Michele Bachmann, Mike Murphy and our copy editors confused the idea of residency with the concept of birthplace
TIME magazine is unable to determine what Michele Bachmann was thinking when she made the error that John Wayne was born in Waterloo, Iowa, and merely because a serial killer with a similar name at one time resided in Waterloo does not constitute confusion on the part of Ms. Bachmann. Bachmann did not confuse these two men, she merely made a factual error about John Wayne's birthplace. TIME regets the error.
Mar '11
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Hmm, interesting thread - with friends like Mr Murphy, who needs enemies?
OK, so Mr Romney will be the Republican nominee, on Mr Murphy's recommendation. Mr Romney may well defeat Mr Obama, in which case I will be happy.
Things could be worse - four more years of Mr Obama.
Jun '11
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Regarding the "gaffes matter" subtopic of this thread, just because Obama and Biden get away with gaffes is not at all any sort of proof that a Republican would get away with them in this election. Look at your two veep candidates in 2008. Both made gaffes aplenty, but one was given pass after pass and now enjoys a warmly affectionate reputation as "Crazy Uncle Joe" who says the silliest things, and the other was well nigh crucified every time she said something that anyone could remotely contest as incorrect...which is still ongoing almost 3 years after the election.
Sure, it isn't fair. But our side is held to a higher standard by the mainstream media. The fact that we need a candidate who is studiously disciplined to the point that they won't create opportunities for the MSM in this regard is not something I'm happy about, but imagine if Bachmann had referred to the 57 states instead of our President. They get a pass, we don't.
For the record, I think the John Wayne Gacy thing was a somewhat invented gaffe. I'm more sympathetic regarding this "gaffe" than the Palin/Revere brouhaha.
May '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
There's no individual breakdown, but the most recent Pew study puts Sunday morning political chatshows with the following split:
Rep 24% Dem 37% Ind 32%
For Newsmagazines it was even greater and showed that Democrats were twice as likely to read them than Republicans.
As a whole, Franco's assumptions are spot on and Mr. Murphy is demonstrably wrong. The complete breakdown is available here.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
dittoheadadt:
Diane, I'm not "going after" his credibility (and I've said nothing disparaging about his integrity). I've simply and repeatedly asked for evidence of credibility. I can't disagree (or agree, for that matter) with him until and unless I know whether his words are credible. Are they? Why? · Jun 30 at 1:38pm
Mr. Murphy has advised a number of successful campaigns (just check out his profile). You've made your point persistently and rudely. I'd kindly ask you to to desist.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
I wish work didn't keep me away while Mike was here. Would have loved to talk to him and I'm honored he was here to talk to us.
I'm sorry so much time was taken up by the John Wayne thing. Gacy was introduced into that story by media. John Wayne the actor's parents lived in Waterloo, but moved before he was born. Where in that minor mistake do you find the name "John Gacy?" 'Nuff said.
More importantly - on Bachmann's consevatism.
In NJ for years we Republicans would nominate for Governor and Senate boring, liberal-lite Republicans designed to not offend what the media saw (and Republicans bought) as an enormous left-wing electorate that would shun a real conservative.
We ended up with candidates that couldn't distinguish themselves from the liberals they were running against (RomneyCare?).
Then along came Chris Christie. He proved that a straight talking, smash mouth proud conservative could sway what was seen as a leftist state that would never turn right.
Mike Murphy - this is not your father's oldsmobile. The old way of thinking is gone. Just look at the Tea Party and its nationwide success.
Sep '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Sorry to keep harping on this thing but I had to go to Wikipedia to be sure I was right about Gacy's birthplace. I then revisited his crimes. How horrific and pathetic.
Since this is wholly manufactured association, I find it despicable - absolutely despicable, that people are trying to make this flimsy association after the fact and they are apparently getting away with it. And I am appalled at Mike Murphy who gets to promote this meme in a nationwide magazine, and he's supposedly a smart analyst and he's intelligent enough to know EXACTLY what he is doing. This is especially true when he was caught with a factual error and he still wanted to hang onto the "confused" aspect which is wholly without merit. Busted Mike. You are busted.
You know we out here in the trenches have to talk to dimwits who read TIME magazine and they say, "Hey, your friend Bachmann really stepped in it didn't she? She confused John Wayne with John Wayne Gacy the clown serial killer. What an idiot"
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
EJ, You miss the point of the data. Time for a stats refresher course. The Pew numbers show the Sunday show audience is very close to the national mean; it looks like America. Doesn't tilt left or right. Check the chart. Argument that it more lib than USA average is flat wrong. Maddow is tilt Lib, Rush is tilt right. Both only talking to outliers who already agree with them.
Jul '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Diane Ellis, Ed.
dittoheadadt:
Diane, I'm not "going after" his credibility (and I've said nothing disparaging about his integrity). I've simply and repeatedly asked for evidence of credibility. I can't disagree (or agree, for that matter) with him until and unless I know whether his words are credible. Are they? Why? · Jun 30 at 1:38pm
Mr. Murphy has advised a number of successful campaigns (just check out his profile). You've made your point persistently and rudely. I'd kindly ask you to to desist. · Jun 30 at 2:05pm
Diane, I understand this is slightly off topic, so I'll keep it brief: though I don't agree with dittoheadadt, I don't think he's out of line.
His persistence can be explained by the fact that until your quoted post, nobody responded to any of his requests. Further, I don't think he was being rude at all. But more importantly, we are all paying members, and some credentials on the Contributors who make this site so great and worth paying for is not too much to ask for.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Tommy, Christie agreed with me re Tea Party O'Donnell in DE. Our last ricochet kerfuffle.
May '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Tommy De Seno:
Mike Murphy - this is not your father's oldsmobile. The old way of thinking is gone. Just look at the Tea Party and its nationwide success. · Jun 30 at 2:13pm
The four most obvious critical examples, of course, being Nevada, Alaska, Delaware, and Colorado. Thanks, guys.
Tommy, seems to me that it is easy to run on the TEA Party in Utah. Utah was not a swing state, last time I looked.
Jul '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Mr. Murphy, nearly every time you post on Ricochet, a kerfuffle seems to follow. Not that I dislike that. Just sayin'...
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Duane, exactly.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Humza I like to challenge dogma, especially when it is so disconnected to reality.
Jul '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Hey, guys, stop bludgeoning poor Mike Murphy.
If you feel the need to spew venom at someone, that's what I'm here for.
May '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
He has also advised and run a great number of losing campaigns. His average is better than Bob Shrum but the thing one gets from "consultants" is that they win campaigns and the ones that they lose are lost by the candidates or something else.
I've often heard (and read), for example, that Mr. Murphy helped get Spencer Abraham get elected to the Senate from Michigan. On the other hand, I've never heard him take credit for his loss just six years later to a rather light-weight Debbie Stabenow.
Politics are a combination of good organization, a sense for capturing a moment and sheer luck. It's also a matter of defining oneself and not allowing the opponent to define you instead. The problem with Mr. Murphy is that he seems to revel in destroying candidates that are supposedly on his side.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Mike you can just as easly list places the Tea Party won.
I'm not claiming the Tea Party won EVERY race in 2010.
Sometimes it takes more than one flush. See you in 2012.
Edited on June 30, 2011 at 11:36pmMay '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
But then, you and I both know that political affiliation of viewers is not something that's going to be measured consistently as it means nothing to advertisers. They care more about age and income level.
But the Time Magazine split looks like America? 22% to 40%? If it's that bad we might as well all quit now.
Edited on June 30, 2011 at 11:39pmApr '11
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Wow, what a great thread! I'd like to address a few of the broader points.
Item 1. Electability - I agree with Jay Cost who argued that once someone has made it through the crucible of a primary process, they are ipso-facto electable. By that time you've oiled the gears, and have got a generally smooth running operation. There is a reason that Michelle Bachman looks so good on TV and sounds so good on the radio; it’s that she bears little or no resemblance to the legacy-media created image of her.
Item 2. Gaffes - Speak often enough, and no amount of careful construction, or factual statements-past, is proof against making an error or saying something cringe-worthy
Item 3. Campaign Optics - I remember hearing that Obama was VERY careful in '08 to never appear angry or annoyed as it might not play well with a white audience. This is Bachman's HUGE saving grace... what would it look like, to said audience, to have a big black guy, (rhetorically) beating up on a tiny white woman. I'm just saying Bachman might be the only candidate unsafe for him to mock, intimidate or interuppt.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
EJHill
He has also advised and run a great number of losing campaigns.
EJ - let me tell you a story about an insurance defense lawyer I know who is often seen in the paper on the losing end of cases with million dollar verdicts.
Those in the know will tell you - there is a reason the insurance companies send him the million dollar cases: Without his defense, it would have been a $10 million verdict.
Political consulting works the same way. You can't always look at loss as a defeat. You have to look a lot closer than that.