Bachmann, Schmachmann!
First, Happy 4th to my friend Peter who I greatly respect. But on this, we disagree. Come to think of it, happy 4th to everyone.
Second, a plug for my new "Murphy's Law" column in TIME. Topic is Michele Bachmann's impact n the GOP Race. Please don't send me any angry letters or cardboard Uncle Sam hats. Send them to Rob Long.
My view is this: I think she will have an impact on the race, but I think her odds are being nominated are ziltch, as I told Matt a few months ago. I think her support will crumble with time in the spotlight, and deservedly so. I think her appeal is limited to one part of the primary; real estate Rick Perry may well challenge her for. Finally, I think she would lose a general election in a landslide. Conservatives need to remember that until the country changes what it thinks, nominating a candidate that pleases only conservatives (and only one part of the conservative electorate at that; remember her insane Kucinich vote on Libya?) is always going to be a losing plan. Why ape the Democrats circa 1972 and find a George McGovern?
Finally, if Rush - to his credit a Ricochet reader - wants to tee off again, I want the record to state that I don't live in DC and care less about cocktail parties there. In fact, the last time I had dinner in a four-star restaurant in Georgetown, it was with Rush Limbaugh! (Some years ago; it was a fun dinner.)
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Jun '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Why will her support crumble? ...why does her support deserve to crumble?
Dec '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
It's not clear to me that 2012 will be like 1972. It seems like it will be more like 1980, a year in which the incumbent Democrat President is so weak that the Republicans can in fact win with a decidedly conservative candidate.
Is that candidate Bachmann, Palin, Cain or Perry? I'm not sure -- but I am sure that it's premature to write any of them off (unless, in the case of Palin or Perry, they announce that they aren't running).
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Here is the other problem; demographics. Country is changing. In 2000 Bush v Gore essentially tied the national vote. Exits say GW Bush got 55% of the white vote. 8 years later, McCain loses to Obama by 7%. Quiz question (guess, don't look it up): What % of the white vote did McCain get?
Edited on Jun 30, 2011 at 11:57amSep '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
From the TIME/Warner Inc. article
"Her latest mix-up, confusing the birthplace of beloved American icon John Wayne with that of serial killer John Wayne Gacy, hints that Michele’s next moves on the national stage may receive more than a few boos and flying vegetables from the voting public"
This is manufactured BS Mike and you know it. But you have your audience...
Aug '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
48%?
Sooo- Perry?
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
I don't try for any audience. First she got the Concord/Lexington thing all scrambled up. Then John Wayne. Run for President wanting to lead the only Superpower? Gaffes count. Rules of the Game.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
No Squishy, higher...
Sep '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Mike Murphy: Here is the other problem; demographics. Country is changing. In 2000 Bush v Gore essentially tied the national vote. Exits say GW Bush got 55% of the white vote. 8 years later, McCain loses to Obama by 7%. Quiz question (guess, don't look it up): What % of the white vote did McCain get? · Jun 30 at 11:56am
Edited on Jun 30 at 11:57 am
Might as well give up then. eh? Just nominate Huntsman, the game's over. trouble is, he won't win either. If what you say is true, I'm prepared to make the stand now with a solid conservative and get it over with. It hasn't been tried. I'll tell you, though, to keep up with appeasing the left is a sure losing strategy long-term and the long-term isn't so long anymore.
Oct '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Mike Murphy: Here is the other problem; demographics. Country is changing. In 2000 Bush v Gore essentially tied the national vote. Exits say GW Bush got 55% of the white vote. 8 years later, McCain loses to Obama by 7%. Quiz question (guess, don't look it up): What % of the white vote did McCain get? · Jun 30 at 11:56am
Edited on Jun 30 at 11:57 am
55%?
I am probably wrong, but something tells me that we should throw the old rules out...this time is different.
Edited on Jun 30, 2011 at 12:07pmDec '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
I'm scratching my head over this. I feel like this could become Palin all over again, but mostly because reasonable people like the respectable Mike Murphy swallow the media line instead of questioning it. And then parrot it, instead of correcting it. Double check the John Wayne story.
Jul '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
60%
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
55% is right. We have a winner. Bush 2000 and McCain 2008 both got same % of white vote. Bush tied and won, McCain lost by 7. Less base GOP vote out there in Prez elections. Makes it even harder for a strong movement conservative, let alone a weak one like Bachmann.
I don't say give up. I say nominate a GOP candidate who can prosecute economy. Tpaw, Romney, and Huntsman all could win. But race is going to be very tough. Under-rating Obama is foolish.
Sep '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Who reads TIME magazine anymore? Who watches Meet the Press? Democrats that's who. Talk about demographics!
So if that is true , why do you claim she confused John Wayne with JWG? She didn't confuse those two. She was in error that John Wayne was born in the town of Waterloo. His parents lived there.
But JWG wasn't born there either - he was once arrested there.
Gacy was born in Chicago
So Mike, it is a complete falsehood that Michele Bachmann confused these two people as you claim. So why write it that way?
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Beasley,
I'm swallowing anyone's line. Call it as I see it. Simple as that.
Why do some conservatives judge all commentary as being good if it simply follows the knee-jerk anti-MSM line? Why the assumption that all MSM journalism is part of some big lib conspiracy. Silly to think that way. Reality is more complicated than that, one "line" versus another "line." Argument and opinion should not be based on a bunker mentality.
Oct '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
I don't mean any disrespect by this question, and I ask it because I trust the answers here more than I trust answers I might get on the web, in Wiki, etc:
What are Mr. Murphy's credentials, prognosticating and otherwise?
We hear predictions from everyone under the sun, but what we never hear are those people's track records with predictions and campaign successes.
May '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
I believe that Paleologus is about right- I wanted to say 58%, but I know the number was noticeably higher than Bush got. Obama got a massive turnout of AA voters and swung the Latinos significantly.
Guys, can't I get you to understand? I like Bachmann. She is a lovely lady. A great mom. A good lawyer. An energetic politician and activist. Would I vote for her over Obama? Are you kidding? I'd even vote for Olympia Snowe or Romney over Obama.
But her support is 26.2 miles wide and one millimeter deep, which is as deep as her experience and views on every subject except for the Minnesota public school curriculum, tax law, and across-the-board spending cuts. I hate to agree with Conor Friedersdorf, but his list at Peter's post was just about right.
She will not win the nomination- but if she did, she would do as well as Goldwater did, for many of the same reasons. And her national vote percentage would be halfway between the percentages Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell got in their state races, for similar reasons. In GOP primaries, Perry would eat her lunch.
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Franco,
Nope. Prove that about MTP and TIME. Show me numbers, not your accendotal assumptions.
Not a falsehood she was wrong about JW; he never lived there. JW Gacy moved there in 1967, started committed crimes and was arrested.
Jul '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
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Edited on Jun 30, 2011 at 1:13pmMay '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
Oops- I thought I remembered 58%, I'm wrong.
For the record, Mike Murphy predicted to Dennis Miller that Obama would win the Dem nomination almost a year before he did- when everyone was convinced that Hillary had it locked- and that he was likely to win the general.
I won't say anything about the Meg Whitman race.
Sep '10
Re: Bachmann, Schmachmann!
"Her latest mix-up, confusing the birthplace of beloved American icon John Wayne with that of serial killer John Wayne Gacy, hints that Michele’s next moves on the national stage may receive more than a few boos and flying vegetables from the voting public" -Mike Murphy
Seriously Mike, do you really think you can write sentences like this, advancing a very negative and false impression on TIME magazine readers, and expect people not to question your motives?